Greeley: Where do the Vancouver Canucks go from here?

Three weeks ago on the Daily Faceoff Show, I pointed to Dec. 4 as the date where we’d know what’s coming next for the Vancouver Canucks.

Why that date?

Back then, Vancouver was entering a three-game homestand and then hitting the road for five. That eight-game stretch would provide opportunity for everyone in the Canucks organization to find evidence to point to that the team would be able to turn around their slow start.

Well, the Canucks went 2-6 in that eight-game stretch. We don’t even need to wait until the road trip ends tonight in Ottawa. The evidence is overwhelming. The Vancouver market has been at a rolling boil for weeks. Let’s take a deeper dive into the Canucks’ first quarter:

How did we get here?

The age-old saying that ‘your best players have to be your best players,’ is one of the primary answers to that question.

On paper, you’d think that the Canucks have enough firepower in Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller – but their stars have not been firing on all cylinders, certainly not all in unison. The only player in that leadership group who has lived up to his billing this season is Miller, who has seven goals and 20 points in 23 games and has been the model of consistency in his time in Vancouver.

Massachusetts native Conor Garland has also come exactly as advertised after his trade from the Coyotes to Canucks. Garland has seven goals and nine assists in 23 games entering Wednesday. But none of this would be a surprise if you’ve watched him at every level along the way from his days playing alongside Jack Eichel with the Boston Jr. Bruins.

The same can’t be said for just about everyone else in the Canucks’ core.

The Canucks have scored the fewest goals in the Pacific Division as of Dec. 1. Pettersson has scored on just 6.6 percent of his shots, well off his career average shooting percentage of 16. Shooting percentages can fluctuate, but to see such a drop from your most dangerous offensive player, where he has not been a factor on most nights, is definitely concerning. It did not go unnoticed that Pettersson was stapled to the bench with Vancouver down a goal on Sunday in Boston.

On the whole, Pettersson produced at a clip of 0.80 points per game in 23 contests last season. This season, Pettersson has been held to a 0.47 points per game run through the same number of games.

But the offense’s malaise is just one of the concerning factors.

Are the Canucks better than their record?

That was what GM Jim Benning said earlier this season, that he believes the Canucks are better than what they’ve shown.

Ultimately, you are what your record says you are. The Canucks roster, on paper, may suggest that they should have more victories. But this is a results-driven business and the Canucks don’t get any credit for losses.

This is not a group that’s in a development stage. They were built to be a playoff team.

Two glaring weaknesses have held them back: the league’s worst penalty kill and the right side of their defense corps.

Vancouver went through a nine-game stretch this season (2-6-1) where they allowed 18 power-play goals on 35 attempts (48 percent). They are on track to have the dubious distinction of one of the worst penalty kills in NHL history over an 82-game season. And that penalty kill was labeled as an issue before training camp.

Benning tried to address the other issue, on defense, in the offseason by signing Tucker Poolman, Kyle Burroughs, Luke Schenn and Brady Keeper – all right-shooting defensemen – on the same day when free agency opened on July 28. None of those four have adequately filled the roles required. The Canucks are still in desperate need of help on the right side, Hughes still needs a partner and Poolman still has three more years left on his deal at $2.5 million per season.

What do they have coming?

This is where it gets tougher. The pipeline is not stocked.

Vancouver has not made a first-round pick since 2019 in Vasily Podkolzin – and he is already playing for Vancouver. Both Podkolzin and 2019 second rounder Nils Hoglander have arrived and are playing regular shifts. Though there have been moments of brilliance – especially from Hoglander – it has to be frustrating to look at the depth chart and see a lack of high-end talent coming.

In recent years, the Canucks’ development staff would have been singing the praises of Hughes, Pettersson, Podkolzin and Hoglander – but in the cold winter of 2022 the Canucks are now lacking the elite talent for their development staff to write home about.

The other difficult part of the equation is Vancouver’s salary cap picture. In a way, Benning refinanced the Canucks’ cap last summer, trading away $12 million in dead weight contracts (Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel) that were due to expire with one more season – opting to take on five additional years of Oliver Ekman-Larsson at $8.25 million and four more years of Garland at $4.95 million.

Ekman-Larsson has been fine, though he isn’t playing up to his contract now, and certainly won’t be over the next five years. Garland has been a bargain.

That trade was a gamble that might have been a winner if the Canucks went on a deep run this year. We know that’s not happening now – and the calendar has just turned to December. That $12 million in cap freedom that would have come next summer has been mortgaged into a costly note.

The Canucks already have more than $70 million committed toward next season’s likely $82.5 million salary cap and still need to re-sign pending RFA Boeser. That doesn’t leave a lot of room.

What’s next?

Change.

When, how, who? Only one person knows the answer to that. It’s been a difficult season and owner Francesco Aquilini has appeared patient. He likely won’t be for long.