How similar are the Florida Panthers to the 2012 Los Angeles Kings?
The Florida Panthers have become the biggest story of this year’s playoffs, surprising everyone as a scrappy eighth-seeded team going up against top competition and consistently getting the best of their opponents (so far). It’s the kind of story that feels so surreal that you’ve definitely never seen it before.
No, seriously. You already have.
Flashback to 2012, and we saw the Los Angeles Kings slide into the playoffs as the eighth seed in the Western Conference, only to upset their opponent in every series en route to winning the Stanley Cup. It was a run that felt like a true underdog story, as we’d never a team seeded that low go on to win the Cup.
But, if you knew where to look, it wasn’t all that shocking. Analytics didn’t quite have the place in hockey in 2012 that they do now, as at that point it had more of an underground following. But those who were tracking the numbers knew that the Kings were much better than their record suggested.
At the time, possession and shot attempt shares were all the rage in the analytics community, and the Kings ranked second in the league in that regard at 55.16%, just .02% behind the Detroit Red Wings for first. So why were they the eighth seed, barely sneaking into the playoffs despite dominating possession?
The easiest answers were the fact that they ranked dead last in 5v5 shooting percentage at 6.04%, and had the fourth-worst win percentage in one-goal games with .370%, good for a record of 17-14-15. Translation: they had terrible luck when it came to scoring, which punished them particularly in close games when they needed just one goal to tie or win the game. If not for an early coaching change that brought in Darryl Sutter to turn around the team after a 15-14-4 start and Jonathan Quick’s incredible season that made him a finalist for the Vezina trophy, the Kings likely don’t make it into the playoffs at all.
Which is why it’s quite shocking that in an era where analytics are much more commonly used, the Panthers went under the radar as much as they did. Sure, people acknowledge that this was a team that won the Presidents’ Trophy in 2021-22, but not enough recognize that this is a similar team to last year’s.
The 2021-22 Panthers were the league’s best offensive team last season, scoring 3.34 5v5 goals per 60 minutes and generating 3.26 5v5 expected goals per 60, leading the league in both. While the 2022-23 Panthers didn’t get quite as many goals due to regression, sitting third with 3.01 5v5 goals per 60, they clicked at almost the same rate as last year in terms of 5v5 expected goals per 60 with 3.22. Overall, this year’s team sat in fourth in 5v5 shot attempt share with 54.62% and seventh in 5v5 expected goal share with 53.8%, ranking ahead or close behind their eventual first- and second-round opponents in the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs.
Along with that, it was how they were getting those chances that improved their play. No longer relying solely on the rush to generate offense, they had an offense with a more diverse skillset to create chances, highlighted by the addition of Matthew Tkachuk.
So why was this team fighting for their playoff lives late in the regular season? Admittedly this one was a bit more self-inflicted than the Kings’ situation. Their defense took a step back, allowing 2.76 5v5 expected goals per 60 compared to just 2.52 in 2021-22, largely in part due to the departure of MacKenzie Weegar in the Tkachuk trade and replacing his minutes with Marc Staal. Along with that, they ran into cap troubles early in the season due to injuries, including Aaron Ekblad, and had to run shorthanded lineups from time to time, which didn’t exactly give them a lot to build on to start the season. If not for Tkachuk’s MVP-caliber season and a late run fueled by Alex Lyon, they also wouldn’t be in the playoffs.
As mentioned before, the Kings were 15-14-4 when they brought in Sutter just before Christmas, and they went 25-13-11 after that to sneak into the playoffs, not clinching until a week before the playoffs began. Meanwhile, the Panthers found themselves as bad as two games below .500 with a 16-18-4 record at the start of January, and needed a run of 26-18-4 to end the year just to clinch in the final days.
Their reward for grinding their way to a playoff spot? The Presidents’ Trophy winner, of course. The 2011-12 Vancouver Canucks weren’t quite the powerhouse that the 2022-23 Bruins appeared to be, but they were fresh off a run to the Stanley Cup that fell just one game short. The Kings took out the Canucks a bit more easily as well, only needing five games while the Panthers had to grind yet again to comeback from down 3-1 to win the series in seven.
But one key to their success in both the first round and their ensuing runs is how they won on the road. Road success is necessary as a lower seed because you’ll be starting every series on the road. It will be the only way to make a statement in each series, and that’s what both teams did.
The Kings won all three games in Vancouver to win the series, while the Panthers went 3-1 in Boston, including pivotal wins in Game 5 and Game 7 to complete the upset. The Kings went on to win their first 10 games on the road, only losing their final one in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final against the New Jersey Devils. The Panthers lost their first road game in Game 1 against the Bruins, and haven’t lost again, winning eight games in a row in Boston, Toronto, and Carolina.
They’ve also pretty much always had to face the best possible teams on their route. Along with the Presidents’ Trophy winning Canucks, the Kings faced the second-seeded St. Louis Blues and the third-seeded Phoenix Coyotes to win the West, and almost would have faced the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed in the New York Rangers if not for the sixth-seeded Devils upsetting them in the Conference Finals.
So far, the Panthers have had to face the top two teams in the Atlantic Division in the Bruins and Leafs, and after leaving that bracket, they now face the top seed in the Metropolitan Division in the Carolina Hurricanes. Oh, and the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed in the Vegas Golden Knights currently has a 2-0 series lead in their series against the Dallas Stars.
If we want to keep finding comparisons, both teams got Conn Smythe-worthy help from their goaltending on their respective runs. Since more advanced stats started to get tracked in 2007-08, there are 342 unique goaltender playoff seasons (meaning that it’s not only including all the individual goalies that have played in the playoffs since 2008, but it’s also separated into each playoff year they played a game in). Quick’s 2011-12 playoff run ranks 11th among those 342 in goals saved above expected with 12.68. So far, Sergei Bobrovsky’s run this season ranks third with 17.3 saved above expected.
Oh, and the Kings 2011-12 run gave them the first Stanley Cup in their franchise’s history. If the Panthers pull it off, it will also be their franchise’s first.
Obviously, these teams aren’t 100% similar. They both have a strong forecheck that helps generate their offense, but the Kings did so with a group more geared towards playoff style hockey, while the Panthers leans more towards some high-end skill (although they still know how to get in the dirty areas). On top of that, the Kings defense in terms of both their systems and their personnel was much stronger than this year’s Panthers.
That led to the Kings’ Cup run being fueled by a little bit more legitimacy thanks to winning the possession battle with a 52.97% 5v5 shot attempt share and a 57% 5v5 expected goal share in the postseason, while the Panthers have lost both the 5v5 shot attempt and expected goal battle so far with 49.22% and 48.79% respectively. The Kings straight up dominated their series, while the Panthers have gotten a bit luckier with Bobrovsky being as good as he’s been to stop the scoring chances he’s faced, especially against the Maple Leafs top offensive stars in their second round series.
Still, there are a lot of similarities between these teams, with the one driving the bus being the fact that they were strong regular season teams that underperformed, and have now seen their regression to the norm turn into a playoff run that has surprised anyone that didn’t know better. I wrote a piece a bit over a month ago about the Presidents’ Trophy curse mostly being the regression during the playoffs of an overperforming elite team, while the 2012 Kings and this year’s Panthers are examples of the exact opposite.
Now, this doesn’t mean that the Panthers are guaranteed to win the Cup, especially because they aren’t quite the powerhouse that the 2011-12 Kings were that kickstarted a mini-dynasty. But it does mean that both teams are no ordinary eight seeds. They aren’t ones that barely had the tools to make the playoffs and got tossed around for four or five games before going home earlier than intended like the 2022 Nashville Predators against the Colorado Avalanche. They were teams capable of going on a run disguised as lessers team, and they both finally started winning at the right time.
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