How sustainable are these surprisingly good starts to the season?

Winnipeg Jets forward Gabriel Vilardi and defenseman Neal Pionk.

Credit: © Stephen Brashear

Evaluating teams and players is always tough in the first month of the season. There’s always a lot of fun and surprising storylines to start the year, but more often than not, they end up being hot streaks that fizzle out by Thanksgiving or Christmas. Ultimately, it makes it tough to analyze the sport in the early-going (which is always great for us content creators).

So, while we’re waiting for the league to normalize, let’s take a look at some of these early surprises, and see just how likely it is that these players can keep this up. Obviously, the really hot starts will cool off a bit, but sometimes players and teams still bank the early points and put up career years, so I made sure to keep that in mind.

I’m mostly focusing on the big surprises, so while there are some instances that could qualify for this list (like Nico Hischier leading the league with 10 goals), that’s at least a conceivable thing to have happen in the first few weeks of the season. I’m focusing on the players and teams that came out of nowhere. Also, Ross Colton originally made this list, but I’m assuming that his injury keeping him out for six to eight weeks will affect his production, so there’s no need to address him at this time.

Minnesota Wild

I think a lot of the hockey world expected the Wild to contend for a playoff spot this season, considering that’s the level of play the team has hovered around for several years before missing the playoffs last season. But I don’t think anyone expected Minnesota to be this good. Through their first nine games, they are 6-1-2 and are third in their division, and they were undefeated in regulation until their 7-5 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday.

How sustainable is it?
While I doubt the Wild will be clicking at a .778 points percentage for the whole season, under the hood they have certainly been playing like a top-10 team in the league so far. Their second-ranked 64.66% 5v5 goals share likely won’t hold up when they have just a 53.33% expected goal share, but that’s still a mark for a strong team. They’re a bit high in both the shooting percentage and save percentage departments, and their expected goal generation is the worst in the league, but their expected goal prevention is the best in the league. The Wild won’t be this good all year, but don’t be surprised if they make some noise and are better than many expected.

Winnipeg Jets

The Jets’ start to the season has been one of the biggest stories in the league. They were the last team to lose a game after an 8-0-0 start, and even after that 6-4 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs, they picked it right back up with a 6-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings. Winnipeg has been firing on all cylinders and once again looks like a strong contender for the Stanley Cup, especially with how Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor are scoring and Connor Hellebuyck is playing at his usual level, along with Neal Pionk producing at more than a point-per-game clip.

How sustainable is this?
I’ve reiterated this quite a few times already this season: the Jets do this every year. Even without analytics factoring into the equation, they always start off hot and fade down the stretch. Whether this team is a Cup contender will depend on how they do in the playoffs. And then you look at their underlying numbers, where they have a 46.77% 5v5 expected goal share (9th-worst in the league), which is well below their 54.42% 5v5 goal share. Even if they were hovering around 50% in expected goal share I would expect some regression, never mind the fact that the team is barely controlling the chances in their games.

As for Pionk, since his start has also been a surprise: the Jets are shooting at a rate of 18.16% when Pionk is on the ice, compared to a career rate of 10.37%. Don’t expect this to continue for him either.

Sam Bennett (Florida Panthers)

The Panthers were not dealt a very good hand to start the year as far as injuries go. Matthew Tkachuk has missed five of the team’s 11 games, while they only just got Aleksander Barkov into his third game of the season, so they’ve certainly been missing a lot of their key scoring players. But, the Panthers still find themselves 7-3-1 with a bit of a lead for first in the Atlantic Division. Why? Well, on top of Sam Reinhart picking up where he left off last season and Anton Lundell appearing to take that next step in his development this season, Sam Bennett has been red hot with a team-leading eight goals, a mark that is also tied for fifth in the league. Should he keep up this pace, he’d have 59 goals by the end of the year.

How sustainable is it?
There are two really big giveaways that indicate Bennett’s start won’t last. First off, he’s shooting 21% on the year, which is well ahead of his career average of 10%. On top of that, he’s only generated 4.36 individual expected goals, so considering he’s scored nearly twice as many goals as expected goals, that probably means he’ll come down to Earth at some point. However, his individual xGs is 26th in the league this year, which might indicate we could see a career year from him in terms of goals if he keeps that up.

But, there’s one other reason why Bennett probably won’t continue this. Three of his eight goals have come on the power play, with two of them coming during his time on the first unit when both Tkachuk and Barkov were out. When Tkachuk came back, he was already demoted to the second unit. Power play time is a big driver of goals, so as long as Bennett remains off the Panthers’ top unit, I don’t expect to see this hot start. He may have still banked some goals to beat his career high of 28, and a shooting bender of a season is still possible, but most likely, he’ll be lucky to reach 40 goals, never mind 50 or 60.

Philip Broberg (St. Louis Blues)

When the Blues signed Broberg to an offer sheet in the summer, I doubt they were expecting this level of play from the defenseman. Not only has he been tasked with playing in a top four role in the absence of Torey Krug, he’s been scoring at a rapid pace this season. In 10 games, Broberg has eight points, already tying his career high previously set in 2022-23, which took 46 games. And if you want to dig the knife in further for Edmonton Oilers fans, he has more points than Evan Bouchard.

How sustainable is it?
I really liked Broberg’s play in the playoffs, and I think he has a lot of promise on a St. Louis blueline that doesn’t have a lot of long-term prospects, but I don’t think I ever expected him to be this good. He’s seen his on-ice shooting percentage jump from a career rate of 9.3% to 10.75% this season, and that’s all while he’s been getting hemmed in his own zone with a 43.57% 5v5 expected goal share. If the Blues aren’t creating chances consistently, that production isn’t going to continue.

Lukas Dostal (Anaheim Ducks)

Opportunity certainly knocked in the crease for Dostal when it was announced that John Gibson would miss the first few weeks of the season. He had already begun to establish a bigger role last season when he had almost as many games played as Gibson, and with Gibson’s struggles over the past several seasons, many expected Dostal to be the 1A in their tandem this season, so no Gibson meant that the crease was for sure his. So far, Dostal has continued to exceed expectations, winning four of his seven starts behind a poor Ducks team and currently rocking a .943 SV%.

How sustainable is it?
In the three seasons that Dostal has played at least five games, he’s managed to put up positive underlying numbers to shine better light on what is otherwise a mediocre career .906 SV%. That said, he had a career total of 5.08 goals saved above expected going into this season, and he already has 9.33 this year. On top of that, only one goalie has ever played 40+ games in a season and finished with a save percentage above .940, and that was Jacques Plante on a 1970-71 Maple Leafs team that was better than this Ducks squad. This will likely be a breakout season for Dostal, but he certainly won’t be this good all year.

Mikael Granlund (San Jose Sharks)

Granlund was once a highly touted prospect for the Wild, but he never quite reached the potential many expected from him in his career. But, so far this season Granlund has looked great on an otherwise bleak Sharks team. With 13 points in only 11 games, he’s tied for 15th in scoring and is the only Shark to score at above a point-per-game pace (outside of Macklin Celebrini, who has two points in one game).

How sustainable is it?
Granlund is currently scoring on 2.9% more of his shots than his career average and is seeing the team score on 0.84% more of their shots when he’s on the ice than his career average, so that already indicates that there is a bit of regression due to come. He also plays for a horrid Sharks team, so he will likely see some offensive struggles throughout the year. He’s also benefitting from more playing time while Celebrini is out, as he’ll likely end up on the second line instead of the first line. Granlund has put up 60 points on several occasions, including last year, so at best I’d expect that his production will even out to around there by the end of the season as a best case scenario.

Stefan Noesen (New Jersey Devils)

The Devils have had a few of their new additions produce well this season. Paul Cotter has six goals. Johnathan Kovacevic has six points from the blueline. Even Nico Hischier’s 10 goals have been a surprise. But Noesen’s start to the year has certainly been the most impressive, with five goals and 12 points in 13 games. He’s certainly stepped up his play in recent years with 30+ points in back-to-back seasons with the Carolina Hurricanes, but no one expected him to score at nearly a point per game rate.

How sustainable is it?
I think you’ve noticed the trend by now. The Devils are currently shooting 14.29% this season with Noesen on the ice, compared to his career rate of 8.82%. When your on-ice shooting percentage is nearly double your career rate, it’s definitely not one to expect to last. If there’s one thing working for him, it’s that he’s playing on the Devils’ top power play unit, so if he stays there it wouldn’t be surprising to see him put up career totals and hit the 40 point mark for the first time in his career, but his current 75-point pace probably won’t last.

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