How the West will be won: Bet on the Dallas Stars to make deep playoff run

Credit: Jake Oettinger and Joe Pavelski (© Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)

Wondering what NHL team is going to come out of the Western Conference? Too many quality franchises to choose from? Unable to find the right fancy stats to lead you in the right direction?

Well, I can tell you the answer. It’s the Dallas Stars.

What’s that you say about the Colorado Avalanche? Or any of the other top six teams in the Western Conference? Yeah, the Avalanche are good. So are the Oilers. And the Kings. And the Golden Knights. And the Wild. Heck, even the Kraken are dangerous.

Truth is, I could see most of the aforementioned teams making deep playoff runs. The top six teams in the Western Conference are within seven points of each other. The parity is striking. Trying to pick the eventual winner of the Pacific or Central Division seems like a fool’s errand despite only a handful of games remaining in the 2022-23 NHL season.

And yes, I know all the top teams keep winning while Dallas has cooled slightly. The Stars have a record of just 5-4-1 in their past 10 games. Colorado is 8-2-0. The Oilers are 9-0-1. No question those teams have found another gear. But Dallas has won three of the past four outings.

It might seem counterintuitive for me to pick Dallas despite the team hitting something of a lull lately. And I also understand the Stars have lost three of four games against the Avalanche this season. It hasn’t always been pretty for Dallas. And like any team not named the Boston Bruins, the Stars have trouble spots.

Overtime has been a real problem for Dallas: the Stars only have four wins in 15 games that have gone past 60 minutes. With just two more wins during extra time, Dallas could be leading the Central Division.

But look at it this way. The Stars have been in a lot of close games this season. And during the Stanley Cup playoffs, 3–on-3 overtime doesn’t exist. The Stars are a quality 5-on-5 team, owning a plus-25 goal differential at even strength.

To me, all those close games pay off in the long run. Teams learn how to handle pressure. And Dallas has no shortage of players who have competed on the biggest stage. The Stars have at least a half dozen players in the lineup every night who went to the 2019-20 Stanley Cup Final wearing Victory Green.

Experience matters. Tyler Seguin won a Stanley Cup with the Boston Bruins in 2011. And Stars captain Jamie Benn not only knows how to lead – he’s also experiencing a resurgent season in which he’s scored 32 times. The Bennaissance, if you will. He’s flanked in the Stars leadership group by Joe Pavelski, who has found the back of the net 25 times this year and has 168 Stanley Cup playoff games under his belt

I know, most NHL teams in the Western Conference have players with that type of experience. I get it. And no question, the Avalanche immediately come to mind as the defending Stanley Cup Champions. But I think the recency of the last Stars run to the Stanley Cup Final matters; 2020 was only three years ago.

But there has been one major change to the Stars since: the hiring of head coach Pete DeBoer. The guy that Dallas knocked off in 2020 on the way to the Stanley Cup Final. DeBoer was the head coach of the Vegas Golden Knights back then, and the Stars took his team out of contention in six games.

Fast forward a few years and DeBoer is behind the bench in Dallas. And he’s done a remarkable job.

The Stars’ success under DeBoer really shouldn’t be a surprise: just look at his record. In DeBoer’s first season coaching the New Jersey Devils and San Jose Sharks, both teams went to the Stanley Cup Final. And the Golden Knights went to the Western Conference Final under DeBoer during the 2019-20 season – his first with the team.

The DeBoer bump is real. Dallas has played with structure and pace this season. The Stars are exiting the defensive zone effectively and blasting through the neutral zone. The structure DeBoer installed has Dallas eighth overall in the NHL in goals per game at 3.41, while only giving up an average of 2.75 per game.

The Stars defense is eighth-best in the NHL. And any team would be happy to be in the top-10 league-wide. But not every team has Jake Oettinger in goal. And while his numbers have dipped slightly to a .917 save percentage, Oettinger has played a career-high 58 games.

He’s been a rock in goal for Dallas. And no one can forget Oettinger’s seven-game performance against the Calgary Flames during the first round of the 2021-22 Stanley Cup playoffs. Despite losing the series, Oettinger posted a .954 SV%. That kind of performance leaves an impression.

Candidly, I think the Avalanche are the strongest team in the Western Conference. Despite losing several key players this past offseason, Colorado’s star power is still through the roof. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar could each win a Hart Trophy before they finish playing. And Mikko Rantanen is having a career year in which he’s about to top the 50-goal mark.

But remember, there’s still the DeBoer factor. He coached the Golden Knights to a 4-2 series victory over Colorado during the 2020-21 season. History is on his side. And I think that regardless of the Avalanche’s regular season success, they have looked beatable at times this year.

It’s not just injury problems that I think make Colorado vulnerable: I’m also not sold on goaltender Alexandar Georgiev just yet. This is the first season he’s been able to lay claim to an NHL crease as his own. And he’s responded with a .919 save percentage to go with 35 wins.

I’ve liked Georgiev’s game for most of the season, but he’s still had some extended stretches of subpar performances. He’s an emotional goaltender. And he didn’t respond well to adversity previously in his career with the Rangers after Igor Shesterkin beat him out of the No.1 job. His numbers dropped precipitously as he lost playing time.

The bottom line is this: I’d rather have Oettinger in net. And that’s true for all the other goaltenders in the Western Conference. I think Oettinger is the best among them, and he has enough playoff experience for me to believe he can replicate previous success.

There are plenty of reasons to like Dallas. But nothing compares to the team’s top line of Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Pavelski. Their vibe is off the charts. No line in the NHL has as many 5-on-5 goals. The chemistry is palpable as the results are even better.

Robertson just passed the 100-point mark on Monday night against the Nashville Predators. Hintz has 35 goals. And Pavelski is the most feared net-front presence in the NHL. The line can score in transition or after extended zone time. And they work. Robertson isn’t the flashiest player, yet he has 43 goals to his credit this season.

I see Dallas as a team that’s really good at almost everything. Defense included. Miro Heiskanen has been invaluable, along with Esa Lindell. Sure, puck management can be worrisome at times. Dallas does have a tendency to turn pucks over when the breakout isn’t clicking up ice.

But I think Dallas’ biggest strength is that they can play any style. Want to run and gun? Sure, toss out the Hintz line. How about muck it up, gritty hockey? Yep, I think Benn, Max Domi, and Jani Hakanpaa can handle it. The Stars grind out wins when necessary. And they pound opponents when given the time and space.

Truly scary teams are diverse in their attack and comfortable no matter what direction the game takes. With Benn at the helm, leadership is never a question. And with the addition of homegrown talents like Roberston, Hintz, Oettinger, and Heiskanen in recent years, Dallas is set up for the long term.

To me, it’s not about the future for the Stars. It’s about now. I’ve seen Dallas score in the dying seconds of games this season. I’ve seen Robertson diving to make saves when his team’s net was empty. And I’ve seen players rise to the occasion often enough for me to believe the Stars have something special going on.

Even though I was previously employed by the Stars, I guarantee this isn’t a nostalgia piece or a big heaping serving of homerism. The eye test on Dallas is solid. And sometimes you just have to trust your gut. I really like the Kings. Edmonton isn’t far off. And the Golden Knights just keep on winning – including two recent victories over the Wild. But for me, the Western Conference is a race between Colorado and Dallas.

I think the Stars have the structure and scoring to go on a deep run. But the ultimate X-factor is Oettinger. And I think he’s going to steal an entire Stanley Cup playoff series before the 2022-23 season is over. Maybe more.

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How the West will be won: Bet on the Dallas Stars to make deep playoff run

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