Ice Breakers: What can the San Jose Sharks expect in return for Timo Meier?

Thursday’s edition of Daily Faceoff Live featured a jam-packed Ice Breakers segment, in which Frank Seravalli talked about how the Toronto Maple Leafs can replace Jake Muzzin and why the San Jose Sharks might not be able to get a huge return in a trade for Timo Meier.

Ellis: “The Leafs have a little bit of salary cap flexibility with Jake Muzzin expected to be on the Long-Term Injured Reserve for the rest of the season. How active do you think they’ll be in replacing him?”

Seravalli: “I think they’ll be active. We’ve seen Kyle Dubas slow-play it to this point, saying ‘we’re going to give plenty of opportunities to Rasmus Sundin and Timothy Liljegren.’ That makes sense, of course, but I think longer-term, other managers around the league view this Leafs team as being a piece away on defense.

I wrote a story earlier this week on Daily Faceoff that looks at six potential fits for the Leafs on their backend, and I want to point this out because I think it’s important to look at the ideal scenario for Toronto.

Ideally, after going through what they went through with Nick Foligno, the Leafs would rather not trade for a rental. But take a look at this list. They might have to because the defense market is really thin. We heard Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion at the GM meetings saying ‘it’s really hard to trade for defense in this league.’ Out of the six guys on the list, five of them are pending unrestricted free agents.

The guy who stands out for me the most is John Klingberg. I think the Leafs have an opportunity to jump the market, get someone from Anaheim where the Ducks have already struggled, he was clearly brought in with the idea that he would be a potential flippable asset. That’s the key name to watch for Toronto, the all-around player who can help their power-play, is above-average defensively, skates incredibly well, and can chew up a bunch of minutes.”

Ellis: “There’s a lot of talk this about the Sharks possibly listening on Erik Karlsson, who’s having a fantastic season. Is there another player that you have an eye on in San Jose?”

Seravalli: “It’s interesting that there’s been so much buzz about Karlsson. Since he’s off to such a hot start, people have been asking Sharks general manager Mike Grier if he would listen. Of course the Sharks would listen, he’s not slamming his phone down if anyone is calling about Karlsson or anybody else on his roster given the contract constraints that he has.

For me, it’s Timo Meier who’s the most interesting player from this group. Part of that is because they were in a spot last year with Tomas Hertl where he was a pending UFA and they knuckled down and signed him to a major, long-term extension.

Meier is in a different spot as a restricted free agent but he has a massive qualifying offer at $10 million. I think there’s no doubt that teams would be calling on Meier and I think there’s a very small chance that the Sharks wind up keeping him beyond the season because of both the contract and the spot that they’re in with him being one of the few tradable assets to potentially get something in return.

What can they get in return? I think they have to take a notch below the Alex DeBrincat deal that the Chicago Blackhawks took this summer. Not only was DeBrincat’s qualifying offer less, but you had one more season of DeBrincat on a somewhat reasonable deal, whereas already from the jump, you’re getting Meier as a rental.

The Blackhawks were able to get a first-, second-, and third-round pick, but you see No. 7 overall from Ottawa as pretty high up in the draft. you’re probably dealing with teams that are way later in the first round, probably closer to the second-round pick they got from the Sens at No. 39 overall. Then you factor in what happens next, which is that maybe somebody treats him as a pure rental, but then the prices are probably even lower than that.

I think it’s an easy warning shot that the Sharks are probably in a really tough spot trying to deal Timo Meier as we move closer to the March 3 trade deadline.”

You can watch the full episode here…