Identifying the Key Battlegrounds for all eight NHL first round series

In the 72-plus hours since the Stanley Cup playoff bracket was set, NHL coaching staffs have barely slept. They’ve been poring over video, sizing up their opponents from every angle, searching for any nuance or detail that might provide even the smallest of edges needed to advance.

Where will each series be won? In the trenches.

Noted development coach Jon Goyens has done a lot of the same work on each of the first round series, identifying the key battlegrounds that could determine who survives and who starts summer early:

Eastern Conference

Florida Panthers vs. Washington Capitals
Key Battleground: Transition game and odd-man rushes

This series is the definition of heavy hockey. Physical play will no doubt dominate this series as Washington (third) and Florida (eighth) were among the league leaders in hits per game since March 1. However, digging a little deeper and respecting the skill level on both teams, the transition game will be key. Washington allowed the second-most (31st) odd-man rushes against per game and they were just 24th in defending controlled entries against at even-strength. On the other hand, Florida was sixth in odd-man rushes for and fourth in successful controlled entries. Keep an eye on defending and attacking the bluelines – as we know the winner of this series will be going into Round 2 a little banged up.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Key Battleground: The Neutral Zone – Puck Management vs. Puck Possession

Since being swept by Columbus in the 2019 playoffs, the Lightning tweaked their approach to puck possession, specifically on zone entries. They have perfected the “place and chase” attack, which is when they direct the puck to a specific or preferred location, rather than simply firing it in. Tampa Bay defends in the neutral zone with a 1-1-3 structure, which only a few teams have used over the past few seasons, including Barry Trotz’s Capitals when they won the Cup in 2018. The Maple Leafs are a possession team, including on zone entries, and that means they will have to contend with a three-man stand at the blueline. If the Leafs force it too often, Tampa Bay has the skill and experience to capitalize on their takeaways and turnovers. This will be a classic test for the Leafs to “know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em at the blueline.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Boston Bruins
Key Battleground: Puck Recoveries

It would be easy to pick goaltending as the key battleground. Both Bruins goalies have identical stats to what seems to be the Hurricanes’ Game 1 starter, Antti Raanta, since Freddie Andersen is out. But neither team comes into this series with the obvious edge between the pipes. No doubt goaltending will be key, though, as confidence, experience, swagger and ability to steal a game might ultimately prevail in a close series. The ability to retrieve pucks may be pivotal. Over the last two months, Carolina dumped the puck into the offensive zone at a very high rate, yet their recovery numbers weren’t good enough to create sustained offensive zone time. Boston’s defense won’t be rattled, they can recover pucks well and wake up their transition game in a big way. One last point: Both teams are struggling big time on the power play since March 1, with Carolina ranked 28th (15.6%) and Boston ranked 29th (14.8%). Will one of those units break out?

New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Key Battleground: Poise vs. Goaltending

This might come as a surprise to many that these two teams are very closely matched in several offensive categories. If the four games head-to-head this season, most of which came in the last two months, are any indication of how Igor Shesterkin’s brilliance can impact a series, well then the Rangers have the upper hand. Especially with Tristan Jarry’s status for the series unknown. However, anyone rolling their eyes at the impact that leadership and experience can have in a series, I will direct you to last season’s deep run by the Montreal Canadiens. Pittsburgh has the wherewithal to put it all together whether it is up or down in a game or in the series. It’s called poise. I believe this series comes down to Pittsburgh’s depth of championship experience vs. Shesterkin.

Western Conference

Colorado Avalanche vs. Nashville Predators
Key Battleground: Patience vs. Pressure

The Predators ooze patience in their game with their 1-3-1 neutral zone forecheck. Their strategy can frustrate opponents, forcing dump-ins, turnovers, while Nashville – as the league leader in hits this season – can go to work wearing ’em down physically. Off those dump-ins, watch Norris Trophy favorite Roman Josi get back to pucks quickly and get them moving north as fast as possible. That won’t necessarily scare the Avalanche, and nor should it, as they have the speed, skill, scoring and swagger to win. Colorado can run a team like Nashville out of the series quickly if it becomes a track meet. Also, Colorado can counter the Preds’ physical play by having the puck most of the game, utilizing their possession with speed. Goaltending is my second area to watch with a big question mark in regards to Juuse Saros’ health as Darcy Kuemper looks to prove himself in the playoffs at the other end.

Minnesota Wild vs. St. Louis Blues
Key Battleground: Trapezoid Area

This is a clash of the No. 2 and No. 3 best teams in the league since the trade deadline. The Blues’ offensive zone success not only comes from their depth up front with nine 20-goal scorers, but also their ability to open the entire zone by moving pucks east and west behind the net to activate all five players. If Minnesota is unable to contain St. Louis to one quadrant of the zone, they will struggle to keep their opponent in-check. Also, keep a close eye on special teams, as there is a mismatch between the Blues’ power play (5th-ranked) against the Wild’s penalty kill (29th-ranked). But beware, the Wild are never down and out, as they led the league this season in 6-on-5 goals with 19, so stay tuned until the final buzzer.

Calgary Flames vs. Dallas Stars
Key Battleground: Overall Defending

Sounds like a ‘boring’ key battleground, right? You might point to the Flames as the reason why, and you’d be right. Darryl Sutter likes boring. It wins. Calgary also happens to play one of the most complete team games in the entire league. The Flames defend better than most but still score with the best of them. The Stars seem to be running on fumes after a big push to get into the playoffs – and that could lead to them swinging for the fences, meaning they might not be as dialled-in away from the puck. Watch for the Flames’ ability to stick to their game plan, defending as a five-man unit, where they are also deadly off the rush.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Los Angeles Kings
Key Battleground: Outside the Dots

Goals, goals and more goals. Scoring hasn’t been a problem for the Oilers, who rank eighth in even-strength goals and netted the fifth-most power play goals. But there seems to have been a much greater commitment to defending by the Oilers. When Edmonton struggles to score, it can force the issue and be exposed defensively in transition. The Kings will have to keep the Oilers outside the dots through the neutral and defensive zones in an attempt to mitigate scoring off the rush, where Edmonton ranked sixth this season. Defending outside the dots takes discipline, but Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault can really help their defensemen to keep the Oilers out of the slot and give Jonathan Quick fewer high-danger scoring chances against, which could give them a puncher’s chance.

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Former QMJHL head coach Jon Goyens has 28 years of coaching experience, from the lowest levels of minor hockey all the way to serving as a special consultant for an NHL team during the Stanley Cup playoffs. He is the winningest coach in the history of the Quebec Midget ‘AAA’ league with the Lac St. Louis Lions and has helped develop 25-plus players to be selected in the NHL Draft. He has also worked as an individual skills and development coach with future Hockey Hall of Famer Hilary Knight, as well as NHL players such as Jonathan Drouin and Mike Matheson.

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