If Senators get swept…is their season still a success?
They’ve waited eight years for playoff hockey. They’ve waited 21 for the Battle of Ontario’s resumption. But the adventure will end as quickly as it began for the Ottawa Senators, in the form of a sweep, if they can’t beat the Toronto Maple Leafs Saturday night.
Would that result be fair? Not necessarily. The Senators have played two competitive games in three tries, forcing Toronto to overtime twice. The Senators have held a marked edge in shot attempts, scoring chances and high-danger chances at 5-on-5 through three games. A break here and there and the narrative could be extremely different.
“There’s not much I’m going to say to them right now that’s going to help make them feel any better,” Senators coach Travis Green told reporters after Game 3’s overtime defeat at Canadian Tire Centre. “It’s disheartening to say the least. I thought both teams played a hell of a game. You know, sometimes playoff hockey comes down to little inches or bounces, and we were on the wrong end of it tonight.”
And yet: those bounces have repeatedly gone against Ottawa, and it’s not a coincidence at this point. The Leafs’ superior star power and finishing ability have helped them capitalize on the chances they do get, particularly via their white-hot power play. And time and again, goaltender Anthony Stolarz has come up with that save in a crucial moment, whereas Linus Ullmark hasn’t.
The series isn’t a territorial mismatch, but it might be a talent mismatch. And if the Senators return to the postseason just for four games, popping up and flattened in a game of whack-a-mole…can we still call their 2024-25 season a success? Is simply getting to the dance enough if you immediately barf in the punch bowl and get kicked out by the school principal?
Maybe Ottawa gets rewarded for playing the Leafs so competitively, and the wins start coming. But if that doesn’t happen, and they bow out in Game 4 or 5…there are plenty of positive takeaways from this season regardless.
For one, the Senators established a more mature, hardworking identity under coach Travis Green. They finished in the top half of the NHL in the regular season at limiting scoring chances, high-danger chances and expected goals at 5-on-5. They finished fourth in the NHL in hits. They had the 10th best points percentage in the NHL when leading after two periods. After so many seasons of boasting a talented group on paper that failed to deliver, they finally played grown-up hockey in 2024-25.
They also witnessed a true breakout from top blueliner Jake Sanderson. One of the league’s most sublime skaters, right there with Cale Makar, Sanderson formed a smothering top pair with Artem Zub, grading out top-two among all duos in the NHL in expected goals against per 60. Factoring in that Sanderson also produced a career-best 57 points and is just 22 years old: the Sens have their long-term horse on the blueline for years to come, and his $8.5 million AAV already looks like a bargain.
We’ve finally gotten to see captain Brady Tkachuk play high-stakes hockey games this season, too, first at the 4 Nations Face-Off and now in Round 1 of the playoffs. He was a monster for Team USA and, despite his team trailing 3-0 in the series to Toronto, he’s been a factor, a beast in front of the net. He’s buried two goals in the three defeats, and the scoring chances are 23-14 Ottawa with Tkachuk on the ice, so the moment hasn’t been too big for him. We’ve also gotten a taste of which Senators have games tailored to playoff hockey. Ridly Greig has been a major factor as an agitator. Drake Batherson has had his moments with his power game. Blueliner Tyler Kleven shows punishing hitting ability, too.
But it’s also been pretty glaring that the Sens have holes to address, whether they pull a miracle comeback or not. Finishing was a problem all season; they ranked 30th in the league in shooting percentage at 5-on-5, and the same problem has plagued them in the playoffs. They’re scoring on a paltry 7.41 percent of their shots, compared to 18.46 percent for the Leafs. Considering Ottawa lacks a top-drawer goal scorer in its prospect pipeline, GM Steve Staios clearly needs to acquire some finishing via trade or free agency. Ottawa badly needs to augment its blueline, too; its team defense was strong with Sanderson and Zub on the ice but pretty much below average without them all year. The Sens could use some defensive depth, particularly when it comes to their penalty kill, which was subpar in the regular season and has been torched in the postseason. They have more than $18 million in projected cap space, without a major bank-breaker of a contract to worry about, so there could be room for an addition or two if they’re willing to spend to the cap.
So if the Sens are indeed swept? It’ll be pretty clear what needs to be fixed. It will be a humbling experience for a group that was full of excited players competing in their first Stanley Cup playoff games. But it won’t fully be a waste. The Sens made some sustainable improvements this season, and there’s reason to believe they can be better next year with a few roster tweaks from the front office.
POST SPONSORED BY bet365
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