Is Toronto Maple Leafs captain John Tavares actually in decline?

John Tavares apologized. He was drawing a blank. And it was a very nice problem to have.

He was being asked to go through the particulars of a goal he scored Wednesday night in the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 5-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers, except he scored too many of ’em. He needed more specifics to refresh his memory.

Was it the first? That put the Leafs up 2-1 late in the first period. Tavares was headed for a line change but saw William Nylander opening up a clear passing lane. Tavares stayed on, one-timed a Nylander feed that deflected through traffic and beat Flyers goaltender Felix Sandstrom. The typically stoic Tavares celebrated with a surprising amount of animation.

How about the second? That was one of Tavares’ most memorable goals in a long time. He turned Flyers defender Travis Sanheim inside out with a couple quick dekes, drove low to the goalmouth for a chance and buried his own rebound. That iced the game, putting Toronto up 4-2.

“He was on it tonight for sure,” said Leafs center Auston Matthews. “He made some incredible plays. His second one was just special. Just a great game by him. Just leading the way for us in a game where we wanted to have a good bounceback.”

The third goal? Tavares accepted a feed in the slot from Matthews, pivoted and beat Sandstrom with a quick wrister. That gave Tavares, 32, his 11th career hat trick.

“It’s been a little while I think,” Tavares said with a laugh. “It’s always nice to get it. You take them all. “

The relief in his voice didn’t come from getting his first hat trick since March 25, 2019. It represented the context of Thursday’s win: ending the Leafs’ four-game losing streak, holding off the boo birds and calls for coach Sheldon Keefe’s firing for at least a night, showing that the Leafs had some pushback in their game, something they haven’t exhibited all season. It was captain Tavares dragging Toronto into the fight, and goaltender Ilya Samsonov’s broken English summarized what it meant to the team rather eloquently.

“He is leader,” Samsonov said. “He shows for us how we need to play.”

The big night brought Tavares’ season totals to seven goals and 14 points in 11 games. That puts him at a 52-goal, 104-point pace. Both would easily be career bests. It’s shockingly strong production for, quite frankly, a player who looked to be in serious decline at the end of the 2021-22 season during the Leafs’ first-round playoff loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tavares’ skating was never a strength, but he looked downright slow in the first half of that series, like he was lugging around the metaphorical anchor of his $11-million cap hit.

“Reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated” is among the most tired clichés in sportswriting. Ugh. But it fits here. Tavares’ incredible start to the 2022-23 season does beg the question: his he back? Does he still have elite hockey in him?

We know better in the current NHL era than to use his pure surface stats as evidence that he’s still capable of being a dominant center. But we can look under the hood.

Using data from Natural Stat Trick, Let’s peek at some of his 5-on-5 play-driving trends relative to other NHL forwards since 2018-19, his first season as a Toronto Maple Leaf:

OFFENSE

Season	Shots/60	Percentile	Chances/60	Percentile	HD chances/60	Percentile	On-ice xGF/60	Percentile
18-19	9.56	92nd	11.95	99th	5.83	99th	3.09	95th
19-20	8.98	87th	10.37	96th	4.03	78^th	2.74	84th
20-21	8.43	84th	10.50	98th	4.59	95th	2.69	86th
21-22	8.20	72nd	11.22	97th	5.29	95th	2.97	86th
22-23	9.73	82nd	9.29	70th	5.31	81st	2.97	65th

Tavares has consistently rated as one of the game’s elite offensive play drivers during his tenure as a Leaf, as you can see – which is particularly impressive when we remember he’s centering his own line as opposed to piling up chances playing alongside Matthews. It has certainly helped that Tavares has had one of Mitch Marner or William Nylander on his wing for most of the time. But point here is: Tavares remains a luxuriously excellent No. 2 NHL center in terms of generating offense. Even this season so far, he’s shooting the puck the most he has as a Leaf, and he’s generating individual high-danger chances at his second-best rate at a Leaf. Only scoring chances are down so far, but he’s still well above average compared to other NHL forwards.

What about on the defensive side of the puck?

Season	Takeaways/60	Percentile	On-ice SCA/60	Percentile	On-ice xGA/60	Percentile
18-19	2.34	76th	29.65	10th	2.70	12th
19-20	1.86	57th	27.37	33rd	2.49	32nd
20-21	2.22	85th	27.14	23rd	2.13	64th
21-22	1.78	56th	28.05	44th	2.52	46th
22-23	4.42	99th	30.95	37th	2.87	33rd

So that is not the profile of a Selke Trophy winner. Tavares and his line have generally played high-event hockey, generating a lot of scoring chances while allowing quite a few, throughout his tenure as a Leaf. Not much has really changed there this season, however. His offensive impact still very much trumps any defensive shortcomings. The Leafs are allowing a few more chances than normal when he’s on the ice, but he’s also been a top-three puck thief in the NHL so far, so he’s been helpful transitioning defense to offense.

All in all? We’re not seeing too many alarming signs of Tavares being in significant decline. He’s not a fast skater, but he never was. He has always generated a ton of chances, and he still does. His line allows a fair amount of chances, and it always did.

Is Tavares an $11 million player? No. But he might still be, say, a $9 million one, one of the best second-line centers in the NHL and someone who can still be part of the solution in Toronto. If the Leafs can dig their way out of a mediocre 5-4-2 start, he’ll be a big reason why.

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Is Toronto Maple Leafs captain John Tavares actually in decline?

OFFENSE

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