It’s just not happening for the Ottawa Senators in 2022-23. What now?

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You could feel it in that humid Ottawa Valley air all summer. Buzz. Genuine excitement. For the first time since Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone and company willed an underqualified Senators team to within one goal of the Stanley Cup Final in 2017, the franchise was relevant.

Captain Brady Tkachuk could feel it. He mentioned it when we spoke at the end of the summer. Not only were fans regularly hollering stuff at him if they crossed paths on the street, but the players themselves were the most excited he’d ever seen them entering his fifth NHL training camp.

And how could they not be? It was the summer of GM Pierre Dorion. He “won the offseason,” so many of us wrote. He swung a draft-day blockbuster trade for 40-goal scorer Alex DeBrincat. He traded for a new No. 1 goaltender in Cam Talbot. He brought a veteran leader home with the Claude Giroux signing. Also factoring in the projected progression of the enviable existing young core including Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson, Alex Formenton and Jake Sanderson: yeah, there was serious reason to hype the Sens.

And…here’s a look at the franchise’s points percentages over its past five seasons, ranked from best to worst. Try to guess which one is this year’s:

.464
.455
.445
.437
.390

Semi-trick question, as the highest, .464, is in fact from this season, but you didn’t know that for sure, did you? The fact it’s even close tells you what an unmitigated disaster the 2022-23 campaign has been to date.

Norris is out for the year with a major shoulder injury. Alex Formenton, whose silence over the possibility of his involvement in the 2018 Hockey Canada scandal reached deafening levels, was left unsigned as an RFA and became the first NHL player in more than 20 years to pass the RFA deadline without a contract. He won’t play NHL games this season. And Monday night, franchise cornerstone Stutzle went down with an upper-body injury and didn’t return to the game.

The play, which came on a hit from the Anaheim Ducks’ Brett Leason, probably looked familiar to Sens fans – not unlike the one that ended Shane Pinto’s 2021-22 and Norris’ 2022-23. It looked like a shoulder problem and, as noted by The Athletic’s Ian Mendes, it’s rarely a good sign when a player leaves the ice and storms to the room as quickly as Stutzle did. It looked like he knew he suffered a serious injury.

At press time, we don’t know if that’s the case, but it will qualify as a mild surprise if Stutzle is fine. The Senators said Tuesday that he would undergo further testing and that they’d have a more specific update on his status Wednesday. He was in the midst of breaking out this season, piling up 27 points in 28 games, more than justifying the $8.35 million AAV the Sens committed to him for eight years starting next season.

If he’s out? That means the Sens soldier on missing three of their top nine forwards – four if you include Tyler Motte, who was also hurt Monday. They’ve quietly won three straight games and six of their past 10, but even that mini surge has them eight points out of a wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference.

Even if Stutzle’s recovery timeline lands on the optimistic side, it feels like it’s time to ask: what if the Sens just aren’t good? Is this team a bust? And what does that mean for Dorion’s plan over the balance of 2022-23?

That isn’t to say the Sens haven’t shown any signs of improvement this season. They’ve actually made significant leaps in their play driving, especially on the offensive side of the puck, where they graded out among the better teams in the league at 5-on-5.

Season	CF/60	CA/60	SCF/60	SCA/60	xGF/60	xGA/60
2018-19	53.32	65.43	24.83	29.2	2.31	2.65
2019-20	56.37	60.31	26.95	28.32	2.45	2.5
2020-21	55.11	58.35	25.82	27.38	2.29	2.47
2021-22	53.83	58.59	26.9	29.4	2.35	2.66
2022-23	64.21	57.59	32.5	28.98	2.98	2.68

All their offensive additions, even despite the injuries, have yielded a high-octane attack at 5-on-5. The gains in generating shot attempts, scoring chances and expected goals are quite noticeable.

But that was, more or less, what we expected going into the season. The Sens’ lack of depth on defense wasn’t addressed, and the team just crossed its fingers that Sanderson would be an instant difference maker from within. He has been plenty impressive as a rookie, but he’s not a miracle worker. The Sens haven’t shown any notable improvement in defending at 5-on-5 as a team and, factoring in a below-average penalty kill, allow the eighth most shots per game in all situations.

So what we have here is (a) a vastly improved offensive club, (b) a club that hasn’t improved defensively and is too dependent on Talbot and his .917 save percentage to bail it out and (c) a team that, with Stutzle potentially out, could suffer a major blow to the offense that has kept it somewhat competitive.

Nothing in this equation adds up to “playoff team in 2022-23.” And if that’s the case, Dorion has to rewind the developmental clock, not to full rebuilder but at least to retooler. It’ll mean he must evaluate the expiring contracts on his team and start wondering who will come calling with trade offers. That applies for Motte once healthy, not to mention fellow bruising forward Austin Watson. Teams might kick the tires on pending UFA defenseman Travis Hamonic, too, and Talbot, whose contract is also up July 1, would be an easy sell to opposing teams. Everyone needs veteran goaltending depth in the postseason.

It will get more complicated for a few other names that may or may not be part of the Sens’ long-term core. What about defenseman Artem Zub, who has brought stability and physicality as KHL import success story? When healthy, he’s logged more than 22 minutes a night in top-four role. He’d surely attract interest as a 27-year-old pending UFA.

And the biggest question of all: what happens to DeBrincat? He’s starting to heat up, with seven goals in his past 15 games, but the overall production hasn’t met expectations. He’s a pending RFA, arbitration eligible, and a $9 million qualifying offer is required to retain his rights. He indicated before the season that he had no intention of negotiating a new contract during the year. So his future as a Senator is cloudy to say the least, and his underwhelming start to 2022-23 complicates the matter further.

Not the fun you had in mind, eh Sens fans? Sorry. But if the injuries continue to mount and the team can’t claw back into the playoff hunt by the new year, it will be time to punt the idea of Ottawa being a contender this season – and embrace the notion that Dorion will have to cash out some assets for help in future seasons.

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It’s just not happening for the Ottawa Senators in 2022-23. What now?

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