Keys to victory for Canada and USA in 4 Nations Face-Off Final

Credit: Feb 15, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; [Imagn Images direct customers only] Team Canada goalie Jordan Binnington (50) stops Team United States forward Matthew Tkachuk (19) in the first period during a 4 Nations Face-Off ice hockey game at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

To shout out the late Bob Cole: Oh, baby. We’re in for a treat Thursday night when Team Canada and Team USA close out the 4 Nations Face-Off in the Final. More than 10 million North Americans tuned in last Saturday when the two rivals met in best-on-best action for the first time since 2016. Who knows what the audience will balloon to for the winner-take-all game? The tournament has vastly exceeded even the most optimistic expectations – in the skill on display and particularly in the competitiveness.

The Americans outdueled the Canadians in the round-robin. But USA enters the Final banged up and having lost key defenseman Charlie McAvoy to a shoulder injury and subsequent infection. Meanwhile, Canada seemed to find its chemistry for most of its final round-robin game against Finland. With the momentum tilting over the past few days, it truly feels like anyone’s game in the Final. What are the keys to victory for either side?

CANADA keys to victory

1. Play your game, not theirs

The atmosphere Saturday was truly unforgettable. The players on both sides said to a man that it was like nothing they’d ever experienced. But while the Canadians answered the bell during the three fights in the opening nine seconds, with Brandon Hagel pumping up the crowd, the fisticuffs were the Americans’ idea, planned by Matthew and Brady Tkachuk and J.T Miller in a group chat before the game. The USA, the bigger, stronger team, took the game where they wanted it to go. The Canadians were courageous in fighting back, particularly in those first two bouts in which Hagel and Sam Bennett had major size disadvantages, but they aren’t going to win a fist fight versus their brawny southern neighbors. Canada needs to focus on winning with its superior top-of-the-lineup skill and structure. Ideally, it finds a way to turn the other cheek just enough to get the Americans into penalty trouble and get that all-world PP1 unit on the ice.

2. Shorten the bench

The ice time among Canada’s forwards Monday against Finland:

Sam Reinhart 16:37
Connor McDavid 16:29
Brayden Point 16:01
Mark Stone 15:45
Nathan MacKinnon 15:26
Sidney Crosby 14:53
Brandon Hagel 14:30
Anthony Cirelli 14:15
Brad Marchand 14:13
Sam Bennett 14:11
Mitch Marner 12:46
Travis Konecny 12:11

As it should be. Canada finally found a top six that worked with Point-McDavid-Stone and Crosby-MacKinnon-Reinhart, with those two lines producing all five goals. Jon Cooper fittingly gave them the most ice time – but to beat the U.S. he’ll need to lean harder on his top six and skew the minutes even more. Put differently: we named our DFO Quarter Century Team this week, and three of the top seven players of the past 25 years toil on Canada’s first two lines right now. Play them as much as you can now that you’ve finally found the correct chemistry. And while you’re at it: play defensemen Cale Makar and Devon Toews 25-plus minutes.

3. Make Connor Hellebuyck work harder

Not only did Canada not capitalize enough on its chances, as Crosby said Saturday, but they simply didn’t get to the net enough, as Bennett pointed out. Hellebuyck only faced 26 shots in that game. The Americans had just 22, but that was sufficient to beat a shaky Jordan Binnington twice, not so much when you’re facing the best goaltender in the world. Canada must find a way to get to the net more, create more traffic in front of Hellebuyck and make him uncomfortable. If he’s stopping everything he can see, make him stop what he can’t see.

USA keys to victory

1. Make adrenaline an advantage, not a disadvantage

We’ve seen it a million times in combat spots. The most famous example was George Foreman’s Rumble in the Jungle loss to Muhammad Ali. Or if you’re more of an MMA fan: I think about Shane Carwin’s loss to Brock Lesnar. In both cases, the big, scary, muscular opponent came out swinging like crazy, burnt himself out, suffered a massive adrenaline dump and didn’t have enough energy to close out the heavyweight title fight. As Canadian legend Chris Pronger pointed out to me this week, the USA went so hard, so early on Saturday against Canada – to the point the Americans treated a round-robin contest like a championship game. They won but walked away with bumps and bruises that may hinder them going forward. The same principle applies within a single game Thursday: Team USA will be fired the hell up playing in front of home fans at TD Garden, but if they overdo it with the violence, they could wind up parading to the penalty box. It’s OK to be the aggressor – the U.S. swagger is a real weapon, and coach Mike Sullivan believes that – but it has to be measured aggression. You can hammer your opponents with big hits in the corners, but hold off on the extra shots after the whistles, for instance.

2. Get to Jordan Binnington early

Sports are a funny thing. Thousands if not millions of non-hockey experts saw that Canada picked the wrong goaltenders for this tournament. We all knew arguably the three best goalies in the country right now were not invited. How did Canada’s management team not see it, then? Binnington’s spastic performances in the tournament have not surprised anyone. He has come up with a few big saves in key moments, to give him credit, but he’s just as likely to allow a softy on any given shot. He’s also one of the most emotional goaltenders in the sport. If USA pumps a couple goals past him in the first 10 minutes on Thursday, that could trigger a meltdown. Canada’s odds of winning would tank if they’re playing from behind against Hellebuyck early.

3. Find a way to unlock a not-healthy Auston Matthews

Matthews is playing through an injury. That’s all above board. But Crosby is, too, and he’s leading the event in scoring. The best players persevere. Matthews has just one assist in the two games he’s played. Even when he’s not at 100 percent, he’s the most dangerous shooter on either team. If the U.S. finds a way to get him enough high-danger chances, there may be nothing Binnington can do to stop him. USA will have last change on Thursday as the home team. If you’re Sullivan, you have to get Matthews the sheltered matchups to increase his odds of producing.

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