Larkin: NHL on pace for a scoring milestone not seen in 26 years

Goals. More goals. More. Yes. YES!

Offense is back in the NHL. And not in the sense we claim every season when we marvel at high-scoring games in October only to watch teams adjust and the goals-per-game plummet by January. No, we are more than three quarters of the way through 2021-22 and seeing the most prolific scoring numbers in the NHL this century.

For the entire salary-cap era, the high watermark for offense had been 2005-06. That’s when ‘The New NHL’ showed up, augmented by the obstruction crackdown, determined to kill the Dead Puck Era that preceded the 2004-05 lockout. Never in NHL history did teams average more power-play opportunities per game than in 2005-06. Goals galore ensued. The league averaged 6.20 tallies per game that season.

No campaign had approached that number…until 2021-22. Per hockey-reference.com, despite that fact teams average less than half as many power plays as they did in 2005-06, we’re seeing an incredible 6.28 goals per game in the NHL this season – obviously boosted by the Calgary Flames and Pittsburgh Penguins going off for nine and 11 goals, respectively, over the weekend.

What’s the cause of the explosion? Chalk it up to (a) the slashing crackdown of 2017, (b) the goaltending equipment shrinkage of 2018 and (c) this season’s cross-checking reinforcement. When I reported on the latter early in 2022, I learned cross-checking calls were up 65 percent year over year and that the NHL Department of Player Safety was clipping roughly 65 percent more cross-checking plays for review. Today, at the three-quarter mark, cross-checking infractions are still up more than 50 percent year over year.

So it’s understandable why we now have prime conditions for free-flowing hockey and goal binges. Players can move east-west much better, less inhibited by enemy stick work. Teams in 2021-22 are averaging the second most shots on goal per game in more than 50 years.

That explains why star players league wide are posting some truly exciting individual scoring numbers. Nashville Predators defenseman Roman Josi is on pace to become the NHL’s first 100-point defenseman since 1991-92, while the Colorado Avalanche’s Cale Makar would be, too, had he not missed four games. Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews is scoring at a 66-goal pace. He’s missed five games but is on track to finish with 62 in 77 games. That would give him the highest individual goal total since Alex Ovechkin sniped 65 in 2007-08. Speaking of Ovechkin, he’s on pace for a ninth 50-goal campaign, which would tie Mike Bossy for the most ever.

And, speaking of “on pace”…have you peaked at the scoring race lately? It’s littered with players tracking for 100-point campaigns. If we account for missed games and only consider those players on pace to tangibly reach 100 points, the following players are tracking to do so:

Connor McDavid
Leon Draisaitl
Johnny Gaudreau
Jonathan Huberdeau
Auston Matthews
Matthew Tkachuk
Kyle Connor
Nazem Kadri
Kirill Kaprizov
Roman Josi

If we included every player scoring at a 100-point pace who has played at least 50 games, we’d have 19 guys on that list. Still, as is, the NHL is on pace to have 10 players actually hit the century mark in 2021-22.

The last time that happened? The 1995-96 season, which yielded 12 players with 100 points. No other season since has produced more than seven century-mark scorers. The record came in 1992-93, when a whopping 21 guys did it.

Whatever happens in the home stretch of the 2021-22 season, we can, for a change, enjoy the fact that increased offense has been sustained year round in the NHL for a change. Keep the goals comin’.