Looking Ahead: What Drafting Connor Bedard Can Do For a Struggling Team

Credit: Keith Hershmiller

This article was written by Lainie Yank, who is part of the Professional Hockey Writers Association x To Hockey With Love Mentorship Program. This program pairs aspiring writers with established members of the association across North America to create opportunities for marginalized people that do not traditionally get published on larger platforms covering hockey.

To Hockey With Love is a weekly newsletter covering a range of topics in hockey – from the scandals of the week to providing a critical analysis of the sport.

_____

He won’t turn 18 until July, but Connor Bedard is already on his way to becoming the future face of a franchise.

Not even old enough yet to vote, Bedard is expected to be responsible for the future of whichever lucky team will draft him this June. As the end of the NHL’s regular season looms, struggling teams that find themselves solidly at the bottom of the standings are hoping for the generational opportunity to rebuild around this stellar young player.

The likes of Anaheim, Chicago, San Jose, and Columbus currently have the fewest points in the league, and therefore the best odds of winning the coveted first draft pick in the upcoming May 8 lottery. There is no question that Bedard, with the impressive numbers that he has put up in the Western Hockey League, will be a fantastic addition wherever he goes, but what exactly can an ultra-talented teenager do to turn around a team that has spent the past season (or more) floundering?

After tallying 143 points in 57 regular season games with the WHL’s Regina Pats and winning the Bob Clarke Trophy, the answer is, hopefully, score a lot of goals. He outscored his peers in the league spectacularly, by a margin of 36 points more than the next-highest scorer. Byron Bader of Hockey Prospecting anticipates that this will translate to Bedard starting to produce right away upon entering the NHL, with a possible 70- or 80-point rookie season.

Comparisons to previous first-overall picks speak favorably of Bedard’s potential. Having a similar shot to Auston Matthews with a build closer to that of Jack Hughes, he is in good company. Bedard’s statistics at the junior level even rival best-player-in-the-world Connor McDavid’s with the OHL’s Erie Otters, with two consecutive seasons reaching or surpassing the 100-point mark. While each of these players has his own individual playing style, they share in common that their domination in junior leagues led to elite play in the NHL.

“They always find a way in the NHL to become superstars,” says Bader.

Given Bedard’s track record, teams expect that he will be able to follow in the footsteps of preceding top drafted players.

In order to maximize his potential for success, however, the organization that drafts Bedard has more to do than simply get him on their team. Finding the ideal role for a young talent to fill is just as crucial as bringing him on in the first place.

The most substantial asset that a draftee like Bedard brings to the table is scoring, so a team that has struggled to capture points will naturally look to benefit from Bedard’s proficiency in that area.

Putting Bedard in the best position to produce is one factor to consider, as is his relationship with other members of the team.

TNT television analyst Eddie Olczyk, a former player and coach, emphasizes the importance of “insulat[ing] him with veterans who are not on self-led agendas – really good players and people that will help him grow and mature as a player, and, more importantly, as a person.”

Given the immense weight that is going to be placed on Bedard’s shoulders, guidance and support from experienced players will be invaluable.

When he does get drafted, all but guaranteed to go first overall, Bedard will continue to produce in the NHL, but his presence won’t necessarily be a quick panacea. Teams that have spent a season failing to deliver will need more than the scoring ability of one young phenom to turn themselves around. The addition of Connor McDavid himself didn’t improve the Oilers in one fell swoop, with the team missing almost as many playoffs as they’ve qualified for since drafting him.

Both Olczyk and Bader reiterate the importance of making the most of Bedard’s presence in the short-term, while not expecting that drafting him will lead to immediate overall team success. Rather, the organization he signs with needs to look ahead to strategically trade and continue to draft well to surround their star player with more high-caliber talent. Drafting Bedard may even incentivize free-agents to sign with a team in the interest of getting to play alongside him.

He is a “piece that can be a difference maker,” as Olczyk says, especially if given the best possible team to prosper with.

The most reliable strategy for crafting a competitive, winning team, though, is typically a long-term approach. Per Bader, “It always takes a number of years to even become a playoff team.”

Olczyk’s own experience echoes this: as the head coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins from 2003–2005, he was present for their drafting of first-overall pick Marc-André Fleury, picking up Evgeni Malkin second overall, and then winning the Sidney Crosby sweepstakes in consecutive years. All three players remain among the best in the league, but it still took several years of playing together for a team consisting of multiple generational stars to win the Stanley Cup.

Patience is often crucial when committing to a rebuild. The most notable hardship inherent to this approach is the reality that teams will go through a series of disappointing seasons in order to hopefully come out the other side with a strong set of players bolstered by a young core. Compounding this is the inevitable element of uncertainty involved in lottery odds; luck plays a major role every step of the way, but a team looking to truly capitalize on Bedard’s abilities and invest in their – and his – future has to draft strategically in the interim.

A team rebuilding for consistent success understands the importance of strong foundational players. Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, and Steven Stamkos were all drafted to their respective struggling teams before going on to win multiple Cup runs each.

The prospect of a dedicated rebuilding process should not daunt Bedard nor the team he gets drafted to. Indeed, he should hit the ground (or ice, as it were) running. He has the capacity to be a difference-maker right away.

With the hype surrounding him, “you want him to taste some success,” says Olczyk,

Being able to improve his play in the best men’s league in the world will be important on an individual level.

Meanwhile, an organization and its managers will be doing the work of juggling the present and future states of their team. Even adding Bedard to the equation cannot guarantee wholesale success for his team. This push-pull dynamic might feel tedious to other players who are tired of losing, but an organization must clearly convey that the process is done in the service of a well-earned payoff down the line.

By the time Connor Bedard enters the NHL, the mechanisms intended to set him up for success will already be set into motion. On the road to his impending superstardom, Bedard will be able to focus on racking up points while the front office and coaches behind the scenes work to curate a future team to further elevate him. But for now, everyone’s eyes are on one teenage boy.

When May 8 comes around, the draft lottery will determine which team has the generational opportunity to build around him.

_____

Looking Ahead: What Drafting Connor Bedard Can Do For a Struggling Team

More from the PHWA x To Hockey With Love Mentorship Program