St. Louis Blues net strong return in blockbuster Ryan O’Reilly trade
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Holy smokes. Boom goes the dynamite. On Friday night, Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas swung for the fences by acquiring forwards (and pending free agents) Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari from the St. Louis Blues.
More players were involved. Mikhail Abramov and Adam Gaudette are headed to St. Louis, along with Toronto’s first-round draft pick in 2023, Ottawa’s third-round pick in 2023, and Toronto’s second-round pick in 2024.
There’s also an element of salary retention. St. Louis is keeping 50 percent of O’Reilly’s $7.5 million contract. And in exchange for Toronto’s fourth-round pick in 2025, the Minnesota Wild will retain an additional 25 percent of his deal and send forward prospect Josh Pillar to the Maple Leafs.
That means Toronto will only be on the hook for $1.875 million against the salary cap with O’Reilly. Noel Acciari adds another $1.25 million. That’s a grand total of $3.125 million in cap space that Toronto now has to fit under the NHL’s $82.5 million upper limit. The Maple Leafs will make it work thanks to Jake Muzzin’s injury.
It will only be possible to offer a final grade this trade when the Maple Leafs’ season ends. How far did they go? Did they win the Stanley Cup? Before the dust settles, though, it is fair to grade the deal’s expense and potential.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Receive:
C Ryan O’Reilly, 32 — $1.875M cap hit (Blues retain 50% and Wild retain 25% of $7.5 million cap hit), 2023 UFA
C, RW Noel Acciari, 31 — $1.25M cap hit, 2023 UFA
RW Josh Pillar, 21 — unsigned, 4th round, #127 overall pick in 2021 NHL Draft (Minnesota Wild)
Hold on a second while I wipe the sweat off my brow. I did not see Toronto as a potential destination for O’Reilly. The Maple Leafs were already loaded with talent up front. And now they add two more quality players, one of whom comes with a Conn Smythe-winning pedigree from the Blues’ 2019 Stanley Cup championship.
I’ve got to hand it to Dubas. This move took a lot of guts. The narrative surrounding the Maple Leafs has long been a need to add on defense. And maybe that still holds true. But Toronto now has arguably the strongest spine in the NHL. Imagine going up against lines centered by Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and O’Reilly, in that order.
And then chuck in a lunch pail player like Acciari for good measure. He can play center or slide over to the right side on the wing. Acciari kills penalties and is willing to put his body on the line for the good of the team. He was one of the Blues’ most consistent players this year.
At 32, O’Reilly is having a down year. He’s only produced 12 goals and seven assists in 40 games, well off his usual pace of just under a point per game. O’Reilly has also missed significant time with a lower body injury. But the former Blues captain looked good after returning to the St. Louis lineup, scoring twice and adding an assist in three games.
Are the Maple Leafs getting the best version of O’Reilly? That’s hard to say. His footspeed has never been great. But O’Reilly has largely been able to produce because of his smarts and competitiveness. He’s a very cerebral player that has a knack for making the big play. O’Reilly began the season as the No. 6 ranked Clutch Player as part of our Daily Faceoff Archetype Ranking series.
But what I really like about this move for the Maple Leafs is the versatility O’Reilly brings. He can kill penalties and take critical faceoffs in the defensive zone. O’Reilly is strong below the goal line. And he’s excellent in tight around the net — something of which Leafs’ power play can certainly make use.
O’Reilly will boost Toronto’s overall work ethic. And no doubt he’ll be excited to wear a blue and white sweater. O’Reilly grew up in Ontario a Leafs fan. But I think it would be wise to temper expectations when it comes to his offensive production. Prospective linemates Pierre Engvall and Calle Jarnkrok are capable NHL scorers, but on the Maple Leafs, they play a supporting role. O’Reilly will occupy that same airspace. I think his greatest value will likely come on special teams and by playing responsible, two-way hockey at even strength.
When it comes to Acciari, the Leafs are getting a depth player capable of slotting in at center or wing. He’s scored 10 goals this season and tacked on eight assists in 54 games. That’s slightly above his career average. In 361 regular season NHL games, Acciari has 95 points. But he’s been a bright spot this year in an otherwise dull St. Louis lineup, and he brings postseason experience. Acciari was a member of the 2019 Boston Bruins team that eventually lost to the Blues in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals.
With center David Kampf being a favorite of Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe, I’d be surprised if Acciari started out down the middle. But even if he ends up playing right wing, don’t be surprised if Acciari occasionally draws into the faceoff circle. He’s right-handed. Kampf is left-handed. If they pair up on the fourth line, that versatility is a bonus for Toronto.
The Leafs also acquired the rights to Josh Pillar from the Wild. The 21-year-old winger has 12 points in 13 games with the WHL’s Saskatoon Blades.
Are the Maple Leafs a stronger team after the trade? Absolutely. I don’t think there’s any way to debate it. But did Dubas give up too much?
Maybe. Toronto moved a boatload for a couple of rental players (O’Reilly, Acciari) and an unsigned prospect (Pillar). First, second, third, and fourth-round picks spread out over two seasons, plus a prospect in Mikhail Abramov, was a steep price to pay. And that’s not even including Adam Gaudette, who at this point might simply be an AHL player despite having a strong season with the Toronto Marlies.
Let’s also not forget how important salary retention was to this deal. St. Louis unquestionably sweetened the pot by keeping 50 percent of O’Reilly’s salary. And Toronto needed that to make the deal work. But I do think the price was high. And the trade isn’t going to look good if the Leafs can’t get past the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
If you’re looking for in-depth reading on newest #LeafsForever Ryan O’Reilly, we profiled him today on @DailyFaceoff. Full breakdown of his game, scouting report and buyer beware.
Toronto appears to have paid above what we pegged as the ceiling return:https://t.co/B62XVxerjF
There’s no way around it: Toronto paid a lot. Abramov has NHL potential. But losing out on all those draft picks is going to eventually take a toll. In the next three drafts, Toronto only has five of 12 possible selections in the first four rounds, including no second-round picks.
That’s a pretty scary position to be in, particularly considering Matthews and William Nylander are due new contracts after the 2023–24 season. It might be difficult to retain both of them. Tavares and Mitch Marner are up the following summer. And on top of that, the Leafs now have nine players (including O’Reilly and Acciari) who will be UFAs when the current campaign ends. That’s a lot of uncertainty without having a full cupboard of draft picks as a safety net.
I still think the Leafs need help on defense. How is Dubas supposed to make that happen? Beats me. Maybe adding O’Reilly and Acciari is supposed to cover up for any deficiency on the blue line.
Depth is never a bad thing. But I do have to wonder if Toronto’s resources could have been allocated differently. The Maple Leafs are still loaded incredibly heavy at forward, a criticism that has dogged the team for years.
With this trade, Dubas is going all-in. The Maple Leafs are better with O’Reilly and Acciari. It’s Stanley Cup or bust. But I’m not sold that the pair is what Toronto needed, especially if acquiring them comes at the cost of improving the team’s defense.
I love how strong the Maple Leafs are down the middle. O’Reilly brings intangibles that few in the NHL can match. Acciari is a fine player. But you know what scares me about Toronto’s lineup? Defense and goaltending — neither of which has been addressed.
Grade: C+
ST. LOUIS BLUES
Receive:
C Mikhail Abramov, 21 — $809,444 cap hit through 2023-24, 2024 RFA
C/RW Adam Gaudette, 26 — $750k cap hit, 2023 RFA
2023 first-round pick (Toronto)
2023 third-round pick (Ottawa)
2024 second-round pick (Toronto)
After floundering for much of the 2022–23 NHL season and currently sitting eight points outside of the Stanley Cup playoff picture, it’s no surprise Blues GM Doug Armstrong chose to keep selling. He’d already moved All-Star forward Vladimir Tarasenko and defenseman Niko Mikkola — both of whom are pending UFAs — to the New York Rangers. No reason to stop there.
Would Armstrong have liked to extend O’Reilly? Probably. But at what cost? To me, there were too many variables for Armstrong to consider in trying to sign O’Reilly to a new contract, with term being the most important. I doubt St. Louis wanted to do anything longer than three or four years. And knowing the haul O’Reilly would garner in a trade, Armstrong did what was best for the future of the Blues franchise.
While I’m intrigued with Abramov (a 2019 fourth-round selection), the key to the Blues’ return in this deal lies in the future. St. Louis now has three first-round selections in the upcoming 2023 NHL Draft. Even if all three end up being in the back half of the round, that’s a bounty any team would covet.
And who’s to say Armstrong doesn’t flip one — or maybe even two — of those first-round picks for an established NHLer with some term left on their contract? I could see it happening for the right player, especially because the Blues aren’t going into a full rebuild. Armstrong is merely reloading. St. Louis should be competitive again next season, and, given their full board of draft picks, well into the future.
The Blues are also getting a reclamation project in Adam Gaudette. Whether he plays in St. Louis remains to be seen: the 26-year-old forward has spent the entire season in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies, where he’s scored 20 goals in 40 games.
With 218 career NHL games under his belt, Gaudette has experience. And with O’Reilly and Acciari out the door, maybe Gaudette gets a chance to showcase himself with the Blues. He’ll be a restricted free agent at the end of the current season.
Considering the Blues still have forward Ivan Barbashev and goaltender Thomas Greiss available as pending UFAs, I have to wonder if Armstrong can extract even more out of this year’s trade deadline. He’s already added a ton of draft capital.
In the long run, Armstrong only helped his team by moving O’Reilly and Acciari. St. Louis is a long shot to qualify for the postseason and neither player was a lock to re-sign with the Blues. For Armstrong to get three quality draft picks and a prospect in the deal was unexpected. Color me impressed.
Grade: A
MINNESOTA WILD
Receive:
2025 fourth-round pick (Toronto)
Pillar’s rights not included, The Wild essentially retained $1.875 million of cap space on O’Reilly’s deal to obtain a fourth-round selection in the 2025 NHL Draft.
What makes the agreement seem a little odd is that Minnesota desperately need help at center. And the team is perilously close to missing the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Wild are currently just two points ahead of the Calgary Flames in the Western Conference wild card race.
I thought O’Reilly would have been a great fit with Minnesota, but that ship has sailed. And the Wild does have over $12.8 million in projected cap space left to spend at the trade deadline. But even $1.875 million can make a big difference.
Was giving up that cap space worth an extra fourth-round pick two years from now? For the real cash the Wild will spend on O’Reilly – $76k – it makes a lot of sense. That’s way less than what teams have historically paid – around $350k – to obtain a fourth-round draft choice in a third party broker situation.
Good business at a small cost.
Grade: B+