McKenna: Understanding NHL’s ‘100 Rule’ and how it can forecast playoff berths

Take an NHL team’s power play and penalty kill success rates. Add them together. If the sum is greater than 100, that team will probably make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

So goes traditional wisdom within the locker room. At the start of every season, teams get together to define goals and aspirations. Without fail, winning the Stanley Cup is at the top of the list. But not far down the agenda is the desire to excel on special teams.

Players know they have to perform with the man advantage. It’s non-negotiable. And the pressure has only increased over time.

During the 2003-04 NHL season, the Ottawa Senators topped the NHL by converting 21.6 percent of power play opportunities. Fast forward to 2018-19 – the last full 82-game NHL season – and the Tampa Bay Lightning connected 28.2 percent of the time with the man advantage. Combined with their penalty kill, Tampa Bay’s cumulative special teams rating was an astounding 113.2.

It’s easy to see a correlation when you chart the statistics. At the end of the 2018-19 season, eleven of the sixteen NHL teams that made the Stanley Cup Playoffs had a rating over 100.

The 100 rule isn’t ironclad. Take the 2018-19 Florida Panthers for example. They were outstanding on special teams yet their five on five play was so poor that it kept them out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Then there’s the Nashville Predators and New York Islanders, who both made it to the postseason that same season despite a putrid power play.

But those are the exceptions. This year’s statistics show a very similar trend. Of the sixteen teams currently holding claim to a Stanley Cup Playoff spot, ten are well over the magic 100 rating.

As it stands, Edmonton is demolishing the league on special teams with a 132.4 rating. Its power play – led by the game’s greatest talent in Connor McDavid – is humming along at a 42.9 percent conversion rate. If they can sustain it, the Oilers will set an NHL record for power play efficiency.

Will Edmonton’s rating drop closer to 100 as the season progresses? Going on past statistical models, it’s inevitable. But the better question is: which teams will regress the most? And conversely, which teams will drastically improve?

Three teams catch my eye for improvement: the Toronto Maple Leafs, Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets.

The Maple Leafs have been over 20 percent on the power play since the 2016-17 season – the year Auston Matthews arrived. He has yet to tally with the man advantage during this year’s campaign. Toronto has plenty of offensive firepower but they have yet to find their rhythm. It’s only a matter of time before it clicks.

In the Western Conference, Colorado struggled early on the power play. Nathan MacKinnon missed the first two games of the season in COVID protocol and is just now finding his stride. The Avalanche have scored on just over 11 percent of power-play chances this year. During the MacKinnon era, they’ve historically converted at around 22 percent. While they’re undoubtedly missing Joonas Donskoi on the second power play unit, I still believe the Avalanche will finish the season over 100. They’re trending up.

And then there’s the Jets, who haven’t been able to keep the puck out of their net on the penalty kill. It’s surprising with former Vezina Trophy winner Conor Hellebuyck in goal, but Winnipeg has been quite pedestrian when playing shorthanded in recent years. Last season the Jets finished 13th league-wide. In 2019-20, the Jets were 22nd. So far this year, they’ve got the fourth worst penalty kill in the NHL at 63 percent. That number has improved recently and I’d expect it to continue.

So which teams are due for a regression?

It would be easy to pick on the Chicago Blackhawks, but I don’t think that’s reasonable when Patrick Kane is producing on a point-per-game basis. His passing ability is still lethal, especially on the power play. Kane has teammates in Kubalik and DeBrincat that can finish. And the Blackhawks penalty kill has been remarkably consistent. They will likely remain in the top half of the league.

Two teams that I have concerns about: The Nashville Predators and Anaheim Ducks.

Nashville has been off to a decent start, buoyed by their success on special teams. Most of which can be attributed to Roman Josi, who has five power-play points in seven games. But beyond him, scoring is spread out with the man advantage. Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen struggled mightily last season. They need to regain form. The Predators have been scoring by committee with the man advantage, which can be seen as a positive. But I think the power play is when your stars need to shine. I’m not confident that Nashville’s power-play success so far this season is sustainable.

In Anaheim, I see a team that’s thriving on veteran players to fill the net on the power play. Defensemen Cam Fowler and Kevin Shattenkirk lead the way in points with the man advantage. Rickard Rakell has scored twice. But my concern is the young talent in Anaheim has yet to play a significant role. Jamie Drysdale – at 19 years old – has two points on the power play and has looked comfortable. But Trevor Zegras, Max Comtois and Sam Steel have been noticeably absent despite copious amounts of ice time. The Ducks penalty kill is currently 18th in the league at 82.1 percent, not far off from last season’s mark of 79.9 percent. I expect a significant regression in Anaheim.