McKenna’s Matchup of the Day: Apr. 10 – Alex Lyon vs. Ilya Samsonov
Former NHL netminder Mike McKenna provides his Daily Faceoff Starting Goalie Matchup of the Day for Mon. Apr. 10, 2023:
Why I like this matchup:
All hail The Lyon King. Seriously, who had Alex Lyon winning six straight games for the Florida Panthers during the stretch run on their bingo card? No one. But the 30-year old Yale graduate has propelled the Panthers into an Eastern Conference Wild Card slot. Tonight he goes up against Ilya Samsonov, the clear-cut starter for the Maple Leafs when the Stanley Cup playoffs begin next week.
What to watch for:
Lyon has been outrageously good in his last six games, winning them all and posting a .956 save percentage. Can he keep it up? That’s the big question. The Panthers have not played great defense yet Lyon has been able to bail his team out. At some point every goaltender’s luck runs out.
The saving grace for Lyon is that not only has his confidence been building over the course of the run, his technical game is also pretty strong. He’s always been a cerebral goaltender, and no doubt working with Florida’s AHL-affiliate Charlotte Checkers goaltending coach Leo Luongo has been a good match. At 30 years old, this run could propel Lyon into a full-time NHL job next season with the right team.
The 2022-23 NHL season has been the best of Samsonov’s career. He has a .917 save percentage in 41 games. And with Leafs goalie partner Matt Murray out with a head injury, the keys to Toronto’s crease belong to Samsonov. Samsonov has been more consistent this year than in previous campaigns. His interviews have been playful and it seems like he’s having a lot of fun.
But there are concerns. Samsonov still has a tendency to drop early. He chases the play at times, sliding around without a precise destination. And despite a reasonable .907 save percentage during the postseason, Samsonov has a Stanley Cup playoff record of just 1-6. Tonight is a tuneup. A chance to check all the goalie boxes of things he’s worked on with Leafs goalie coach Curtis Sanford.
What fantasy owners should do:
Lyon has been a boon to fantasy owners, and Florida’s relatively easy schedule has helped him prosper. But tonight is a different animal against the Maple Leafs. At some point his run has to end, and tonight’s matchup makes me nervous. As for Samsonov, he’s had a few big games recently against top NHL teams. In his last outing against the Panthers on Mar. 29 – an overtime loss – the Leafs goaltender allowed three goals on 29 shots. Florida can fill the net, so I’d be cautious starting Samsonov.
Bottom line for Alex Lyon:
At this point, he’s got nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Bottom line for Ilya Samsonov:
Toronto has three games left during the regular season, and Samsonov will likely play two of them. He just needs quality outings that he can feel good about.