NHL betting preview (Nov. 15): Avalanche vs. Capitals Odds

Washington Capitals left winger Alex Ovechkin
Credit: Feb 13, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) lines up for a face-off against the Colorado Avalanche in the third period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s game between the Washington Capitals and Colorado Avalanche.

Matchup

Friday’s schedule is headlined by a showdown between the Colorado Avalanche and the Washington Capitals, featuring NHL scoring leader Nathan MacKinnon, who looks to extend his season-opening home point streak, and Alex Ovechkin, who is 32 goals away from surpassing Wayne Gretzky as the league’s all-time goalscorer.

Colorado and Washington have split the past 10 meetings, but the Avalanche have won four games in a row against the Capitals dating back to November of 2022 and come into this game as -175 moneyline favorites. The two teams will meet again, in Washington, next week.

Avalanche vs. Capitals Odds

  • Washington Capitals Moneyline: +145
  • Colorado Avalanche Moneyline: -175
  • Puck Line: Capitals +1.5 (-160), Avalanche -1.5 (+135)
  • Game Total: 6.5 (Over -130, Under +110)

Game odds via Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Avalanche (9-8 SU, 6-11 ATS, 10-5-2 O/U)

Colorado’s forward group is set to receive a significant boost on Friday, with Valeri Nichushkin, Jonathan Drouin, and Miles Wood all expected to return to the lineup. Nichushkin has been absent since the 2024 playoffs, serving a suspension under the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program, while Drouin has been sidelined since the season opener due to injury.

These reinforcements couldn’t come at a better time. The Avalanche have won three straight games against Carolina, Nashville, and Los Angeles, and they’ve claimed victory in nine of their last 13 contests after an 0-4 start. Despite this recent success, the team’s five-on-five performance has been inconsistent. According to Evolving Hockey, Colorado ranks ninth in expected goals percentage at five-on-five and grades as the league’s 10th-best offense and ninth-best defense. However, they’ve been scoring and conceding goals at rates more typical of a bottom-10 team during even-strength play.

The additions of Nichushkin, Drouin, and Wood provide an opportunity to address these issues and further strengthen a squad already ranked 10th in goals per 60 minutes. With these key players back in the fold, Colorado is well-positioned to continue improving its offensive production as it heads into the weekend. The Avalanche have the third-best power play in the league right now, so a bump in five-on-five scoring would put them over the top.

Handicapping the Capitals (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS, 9-6 O/U)

The Capitals are aiming to regain their footing after suffering their third loss in five games on Wednesday, following an 8-2 start to the season. While it’s uncertain if this will develop into a prolonged slump, there are warning signs.

Through their first 10 games, Washington ranked second in expected goals and fourth in shot attempts at five-on-five. However, over their last five games, the team’s performance has declined, with its expected goal share sitting in the middle of the pack and its shot attempt differential slipping just outside the bottom five.

Despite these struggles, the Capitals remain one of the league’s top offensive teams. No team has scored more goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and Washington ranks second in expected goals for and ninth in shots. Yet, defensively, the Capitals have room for improvement, as they sit among the bottom 10 teams in expected goals against per 60 minutes.

Their special teams are also mixed. The power play has been a glaring weakness, converting on just 12.24% of opportunities, while the penalty kill has been strong, ranking fifth overall. That said, Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model suggests Washington is one of the best power play teams, so its misfortune could start to turn here. 

Best Bets for Avalanche vs. Capitals

Choosing a side in this matchup depends on the starting goaltenders. Washington has seen better results with Logan Thompson over Charlie Lindgren, making the road team tempting at +145 odds if Thompson starts. That said, one player prop stands out as a solid bet regardless of who’s in net.

Pierre-Luc Dubois Over 0.5 Points (+140) at Sports Interaction

Despite picking up points in just three of his first nine games with his new team, the play of Pierre-Luc Dubois had been inspiring, and now it’s starting to pay off. Dubois still only has one goal on the season, but he’s been facilitating things for his linemates, Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson, who are among the top-five scorers on the team. The 26-year-old has points in four of his last six games and he’s a solid bet to produce a point in what the betting market suggests will be the highest scoring game on Friday.

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