NHL betting preview (April 28): Avalanche vs. Stars Game 5 odds

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps Monday’s NHL playoff matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars.

Avalanche vs. Stars Game 5 Odds

• Avalanche Moneyline: -140
• Stars Moneyline: +118
• Puck Line: Avalanche -1.5 (+170), Stars +1.5 (-208)
• Game Total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)

Game odds via Sports Interaction.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche likely felt pretty frustrated to be down two games to one entering Game 4 of this series, as they had suffered back-to-back overtime losses in games that easily could’ve gone their way and trailed in a series where they had arguably been the better team.

Colorado did not leave it up to an overtime session on Saturday, as it poured 48 shots on goal in a convincing 4-0 win.

Through the first four games of this series, the Avalanche hold a 55.04% expected goal share at even strength. That mark is actually the highest expected goal share of any team in Round One currently, which is a true testament to how tightly contested playoff matchups truly are.

Avs captain Gabriel Landeskog scored his first goal in 1,041 days in Saturday’s matchup, putting the punctuation mark on a grueling three-year rehab process.

Landeskog’s return has served far more of a purpose than simply providing his team with a source of inspiration, as he’s been highly effective in the last two matchups. In Games 3 and 4, Colorado led 2-0 in Landeskog’s even-strength minutes and outshot the Stars 21 to 3.

It was surprising to see underrated young defender Sam Malinski left out of the lineup in the first two games of this series, as he was quietly excellent this regular season, finishing with a +3.3 expected Goals Above Replacement rating. Malinski was highly effective playing on the third pairing alongside Ryan Lindgren in Game 4, displaying his strong mobility and puck-moving capability.

The depth of Colorado’s defensive core is arguably its greatest advantage over the Stars right now and has been the greatest reason that the Avalanche have been able to own more of the overall run of play.

After solidifying their depth at the trade deadline with the additions of Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, and Ryan Lindgren, the Avalanche were one of the best defensive teams in the league. They allowed only 2.87 xGA/60 in 19 games after the deadline, which ranked sixth-best in the NHL in that span, and only 2.42 goals against where it counts.

Mackenzie Blackwood has been rock-solid in goal for the Avs in this series, as he has allowed only 1.60 goals against per game and stopped .939 percent of shots faced.

Dallas Stars

After finishing the regular season in downright horrible form, before losing Jason Robertson to injury in Game 82, the Stars probably are not feeling too bad to be tied at two in this series.

While the Stars finished the regular season in the midst of a seven-game losing skid, their level of play had dropped off well before the games had become meaningless from a seeding perspective. In their final 16 regular season games, the Stars allowed 3.72 xGA/60, and a league-high 34.55 shots against per 60.

Incredible play in goal from both Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith helped to mask the Stars’ horrid defensive play for a while, but eventually the goals started to pour into their goal at a higher rate at the end of the regular season.

Even without Robertson, the Stars still have a tremendous offensive core headlined by several elite talents, and their offensive upside still looks great on paper. Many of the team’s defenders, such as Cody Ceci, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Alex Petrovic are not overly strong puck-movers, though, which is preventing their offensive potency from shining through.

The Stars have been playing without one of the game’s most impactful skaters in Miro Heiskanen, who is capable of dominating a hefty workload of minutes. He skated with the team’s recent scratches prior to today’s morning skate, which suggests it’s unlikely he will return in this matchup.

Considering the below-average play of several Stars defenders, Heiskanen’s status is massive from a handicapping standpoint, as he will offer a gigantic upgrade in his minutes based on replacement value if he returns at his best.

Oettinger was pulled in Saturday’s game, but that certainly was based on the team’s desire to keep him fresh rather than because he had played poorly. He holds a .911 save percentage and +1.3 GSAx rating in the series, and has offered strong play as advertised.

Best bet for Avalanche vs. Stars Game 5

• Colorado Avalanche -140 at Sports Interaction

The Stars have done a good job of hanging around in this series versus an Avalanche team that looks to be a true Stanley Cup contender, but it’s probably a favorable outcome that it is knotted at two entering this matchup.

While the Avalanche have elite talents capable of stealing any game, their depth on the back end is a massive advantage relative to what the Stars can currently offer. Colorado has carried more of the overall play in this series, and that is no surprise considering how these teams looked at the end of the regular season.

Road teams are 2-2 in this series and went 5-1 when these teams faced off last postseason. I’m not overly concerned that the Avs will offer a lesser performance tonight as the series shifts back to Dallas, and with that in mind, -140 looks to be a pretty good price to back Colorado considering it seems to be the much more complete team right now.