NHL betting preview (April 23): Canadiens vs. Capitals Game 2 odds

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps Wednesday’s NHL playoff matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Washington Capitals.

Canadiens vs. Capitals Game 2 Odds

• Canadiens Moneyline: +155
• Capitals Moneyline: -182
• Puck Line: Canadiens +1.5 (-169), Capitals -1.5 (+140)
• Game Total: 6 (Over +105, Under -125)

Game odds via Sports Interaction.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens were deserving losers in Game 1 of this series, but head coach Martin St. Louis seems right to have taken a very positive stance towards his team’s performance. The Capitals were dominant early on and ultimately earned a 2-0 lead as a result, but the upstart young Canadiens showed plenty of resolve during a furious push in the third period to get the game knotted up at two.

The Capitals generated 16 high-danger scoring chances compared to the Canadiens’ total of eight, but were outshot 35 to 32, which was in part due to the leading game script.

Relative to most playoff teams, the Canadiens do not have the depth to own that much of the overall run of play and have several wingers who will continue to be exposed defensively at times in this series. They allowed 3.62 xGA/60 over the final 15 regular-season games, but did a solid job of avoiding complete defensive breakdowns and letting Samuel Montembeault shine in goal when needed.

In 2021, we saw the Canadiens make a stunning run to the Stanley Cup Final, leaning on elite goaltending from Carey Price and an ability to bend but not break defensively. This Canadiens side has a similar composition and many of the same strengths, as they have proven capable of avoiding critical mistakes to win games against the run of play.

While the Capitals are undoubtedly the deeper team, it’s entirely fair to say that the Canadiens’ top line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky is the best line either team can offer in this series, particularly as St. Louis continues to deploy his top unit alongside Lane Hutson to maximize their offensive potency.

Montembeault was true to form in stopping 29 of 32 shots faced in Game 1 and preventing the game from getting out of reach when the Capitals poured it on early in the contest. Montembeault finished the regular season with a +24.6 GSAx rating, which was the fifth-highest mark of any goaltender in the league.

Washington Capitals

Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery was complimentary of the Canadiens’ performance in Game 1 post-game. Carbery noted that his team better be ready for a better performance from the jump in Game 2, as Montreal’s young core likely gained some confidence from its ability to carry the play in the third in Game 1.

The Capitals were not nearly as dominant defensively in the second half of the season and are a team whose greatest strength defensively is an ability to generate sustained zone time at the other end of the ice. When the Canadiens got on the front foot in the third period, they were able to expose the Capitals’ defensive shortcomings, which are particularly pronounced with Martin Fehervary and Aliaksei Protas out of the lineup.

The Capitals suffered a tough blow Tuesday as it was announced that Fehervary will miss the remainder of the season. While John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun are the team’s two most important defenders, they are not known for their defensive play, and Fehervary was arguably the best shutdown defender on the team this season.

Protas is listed as a game-time decision in this matchup and would provide a massive boost if he is able to play. The hulking winger scored 66 points in 76 games this season and ranked fifth league-wide in even strength points per 60 while providing dominant play on the defensive side of the puck.

The Capitals do a good job of working pucks low to high in the offensive zone and letting quality offensive defenders such as Chychrun and Carlson get involved in the attack, which is a solid strategy to generate goals in playoff hockey.

Chychrun earned himself a hefty contract with 20 goals in 74 games in the regular season and was involved offensively with four shots on goal and five attempts in Game 1. Due to Fehervary’s absence, Chychrun skated on the top pairing alongside Carlson at even strength on Monday, a pairing that was not often utilized by Carbery this season.

Logan Thompson was solid in his Capitals playoff debut, stopping 33 of 35 shots faced in Washington’s 3-2 win. He has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup.

Best bet for Canadiens vs. Capitals Game 2

• Jakob Chychrun Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +110 at Sports Interaction

In terms of sides, my lean would be with the scrappy Canadiens at +155 in this matchup. While the Capitals are the deeper team overall, Montreal should be more than capable of hanging around in this series with its elite goaltending and ability to generate goals against the run of play.

Backing the game to once again require overtime at +333 could also be another decent option, as it seems likely that Montreal will continue to be able to hang around in this series, but it’s unlikely it will be able to generate significant separation on the scoreboard.

The Capitals did a good job of working low to high in the regular season and allowing their offensively talented defense core to get involved in the attack. Those plays should continue to be there in this series, and Chychrun may also get plenty of space to shoot on the power play if the Canadiens overplay Alexander Ovechkin’s one-timer on the other side of the ice.

At a price of +105, I see value in backing Chychrun to record over 2.5 shots on goal, as he should be well situated to build on the four-shot output he put up in Game 1.