NHL betting preview (March 25): Capitals vs. Jets odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the two top teams in the NHL, the Washington Capitals and Winnipeg Jets.
Capitals vs. Jets Odds
- Washington Capitals Moneyline: +120
- Winnipeg Jets Moneyline: -145
- Puck Line: Capitals +1.5 (-210), Jets -1.5 (+170)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Capitals (47-23 SU, 42-28 ATS, 31-34-5 O/U)
The red-hot Washington Capitals aim for their fifth straight win when they visit Winnipeg on Tuesday. Holding a two-point lead over the Jets in the Presidents’ Trophy race, Washington has won nine of its last 10 games and also has a game in hand. With a more favorable schedule, sportsbooks like Sports Interaction list the Capitals as -400 favorites to finish first overall, while the Jets sit at +275.
Despite their success, neither team is getting the same respect in conference championship odds, with both currently listed at 6/1.
During this run, Washington has controlled 52.3 percent of five-on-five expected goals (13th) and shot attempts (eighth), but no team has scored more goals per 60 minutes (3.85) at five-on-five. The Capitals also rank among the top 10 in both shots for and against over this stretch.
According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, Washington ranks seventh in expected goals per 60 minutes but just 20th in expected goals against at five-on-five. However, in all situations, the Capitals have allowed fewer goals than all but seven teams over their last 10 games and have outscored Winnipeg by nearly a full goal per 60 minutes.
Four Capitals have scored at a point-per-game pace or better during this 9-1 stretch: veteran Tom Wilson (5-9–14), breakout star Aliaksei Protas (6-7–13), former Jet Pierre-Luc Dubois (4-8–12), and captain Alex Ovechkin (4-7–11), who is just seven goals away from breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record.
Goaltending has also been key, with Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren combining to save approximately eight goals above expected over the last 10 games.
Handicapping the Jets (48-23 SU, 36-35 ATS, 32-36-3 O/U)
Winnipeg has played .500 hockey since the end of February, going 6-6 straight up. The Jets have dropped two of their last three, including a 5-3 loss to Buffalo to open their four-game homestand.
Washington will have a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Saturday while Winnipeg played Sunday. However, Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t suited up since Thursday, giving him three days off.
A lock to win the Vezina Trophy for the second straight season and third time in his career, Hellebuyck has uncharacteristically allowed eight goals over his last two starts. He hasn’t really played three bad games in a row this season, but the Capitals are a great offensive team that will put that to the test.
Winnipeg has allowed the fewest five-on-five goals this season, and that hasn’t changed over the last month, but the Jets’ offense has dropped off. Since returning to action on Feb. 22, the Jets rank 22nd in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
Only one player, Kyle Connor, has scored at a point-per-game pace or better since then, but Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Cole Perfetti, and Gabriel Vilardi are still producing at respectable rates. That said, only six teams have generated more expected goals over the last month than Winnipeg.
The Jets have still been dominant at five-on-five, controlling 56 percent of the expected goals and 54 percent of the shot attempts, according to Evolving Hockey.
Best bet for Capitals vs. Jets
- Over 5.5 (-115) at Sports Interaction
The projected goaltending matchup has led oddsmakers to set a lower total for this game, but that didn’t stop these two teams from combining for nine goals on Feb. 1. The Jets’ offense hasn’t been great lately, but before the 4 Nations Face-Off, they were the highest-scoring team in the league. The Capitals have had the NHL’s best offense since then, and both defenses could have trouble keeping the opposing attack in check.