NHL betting preview (Dec. 16): Capitals vs. Stars odds

Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Monday’s matchup between the Washington Capitals and Dallas Stars.

Capitals vs. Stars Odds

• Washington Capitals Moneyline: +130
• Dallas Stars Moneyline: -155
• Puck Line: Capitals +1.5 (-190), Stars -1.5 (+155)
• Game Total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)

Game odds via Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Capitals (21-8 SU, 20-9 ATS, 14-12-3 O/U)

Many expected Alex Ovechkin‘s injury to slow the Capitals down—and rightfully so, as the 39-year-old had turned back the clock with 10 goals and 25 points in just 18 games. However, while the Capitals lost their first two games without Ovechkin, they’ve since rattled off eight wins in nine games, earning a point in all nine contests. They’ve also won 10 games in a row away from home, and 12 of 14 road games overall.

Washington ranks seventh in goals against (2.64) and second in goals (3.94) and per 60 minutes in all situations. No team has scored more even-strength goals than Washington has, though. Same goes for expected goals, and as a result, the Capitals rank fourth in even strength expected goals percentage, according to Evolving Hockey. So, it should come as a no surprise that they continue to hold down the top spot in our weekly power rankings.

The Capitals have also somehow doubled their power play success rate during Ovechkin’s absence. Washington converted on 16.4 percent of its power play opportunities in 18 games with Ovechkin, and 32.2 percent in 11 games without him. However, maybe the most impressive part of Washington’s run has been that it’s been over a month since Logan Thompson or Charlie Lindgren started two games in a row.

Head coach Spencer Carbery recognizes he has a 1A/1B situation here, and they have been alternating starts. However, it’s unclear how Carbery will play things on this quick, two-game road trip. The Capitals have a date with the Blackhawks in Chicago on Tuesday following Monday’s game in Dallas. Both goaltenders have been solid for the Capitals this season, but Thompson has had the better season. Per Evolving Hockey, Thompson ranks ninth in goals saved above expected, while Lindgren ranks 32nd.

Handicapping the Stars (18-11 SU, 13-16 ATS, 10-16-3 O/U)

As good as Washington has been on the road, the Stars have been just as strong at home. Dallas is 12-3 straight-up at home this season, though one loss came against the Panthers in Finland, so it shouldn’t be counted as a home loss. In other words, we have a 12-2 home team facing off against a 12-2 road team. The Stars are just 5-5 straight-up over their last 10 games, but that can largely be attributed to the fact that they’ve played six of their last 11 games on the road.

Like Washington, Dallas ranks among the top 10 teams in many important categories. The Stars don’t score as many goals as the Capitals, but they’ve done a slightly better job preventing goals in all situations, particularly at even strength. Dallas ranks fourth in goals against per 60 minutes. That said, while the Stars are a top-five team in preventing shot attempts, they rank 14th in expected goals against per Evolving Hockey. Meanwhile, Natural Stat Trick has Dallas listed 18th in high-danger shot attempts against (per 60).

Dallas is relying on Jake Oettinger to be solid, night in and night out, and that has worked out so far. However, while Oettinger ranked fifth in goals saved above expected in the first month, he’s looked more like an average goaltender over the last month. The 25-year-old played well in his last outing, allowing just one goal against the St. Louis Blues, but they only generated 16 shots.

Per Evolving Hockey, Oettinger has provided the Stars with mediocre goaltending in five out of his last eight starts, which partly explains why Dallas is only .500 over its last 10 games. Considering the Capitals have scored nearly a full goal more than the Stars (per 60 minutes) over the last month, anything less than solid goaltending from Oettinger will make this game a lot closer than the odds suggest. The Stars have balanced scoring, but they haven’t had any player really step up, and as a result, they’ve scored three or fewer goals in seven of their last nine games.

Dallas will also have a couple of game-time decisions on Monday, as Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist are both dealing with illnesses.

Best Bets for Capitals vs. Stars

• Washington Capitals Moneyline (+130) at Sports Interaction

A lot has changed since the season started, but nothing more so than the Capitals’ status. Washington has gone from pretender to serious contender, and this recent run without Ovechkin solidifies them as a real threat to teams like Dallas. Therefore, Washington’s +130 moneyline odds feel too long, as I believe there’s a high likelihood this matchup could end up being a virtual coin flip. Of course, bettors should still shop around for the best odds, especially since the sharp money seems to be on Dallas to win the game.

Follow Andy’s hockey bets on the Action App!