NHL betting preview (Jan. 28): Jets vs. Canadiens odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s all-Canadian matchup between the Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens.
Canadiens vs. Jets Odds
- Winnipeg Jets Moneyline: -155
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline: +130
- Puck Line: Jets -1.5 (+155), Canadiens +1.5 (-190)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -105, Under -115)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Jets (34-17 SU, 27-24 ATS, 23-25-3 O/U)
Winnipeg aims to win its fourth game in a row on Tuesday when it kicks off a three-game Eastern Conference road trip in Montreal. The Jets are 12-5 against Eastern Conference teams this season, including a 4-2 home win against the Canadiens on Dec. 14.
Backup goaltender Eric Comrie, who had lost eight games in a row, finally picked up a win on Sunday in Calgary as the Jets downed the Flames, 5-2. However, starter Connor Hellebuyck will likely be back in the crease for Tuesday’s game. Hellebuyck, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, is a virtual lock to win the trophy again this season, based on his odds (-3000) at Sports Interaction.
The 31-year-old has gone 30-7-2 this season while posting a .926 save percentage and a 2.02 goals-against average, along with six shutouts. According to Evolving Hockey, Hellebuyck has saved the Jets approximately 34 goals above expected this season. He is 10-3 against the Eastern Conference this season and 12-6-2 versus the Canadiens in his career.
Thanks to Hellebuyck, only one team (Washington) has allowed fewer goals per 60 minutes this season, and he’s the main reason why Winnipeg has the second-best goal share in hockey right now. That said, Winnipeg is tied for first in goals per 60 minutes, so the Jets’ offense has been just as important to the team’s success.
According to Evolving Hockey, Winnipeg has posted the third-best expected goals percentage at even strength over the last month, but no team has achieved a better goal differential at even strength.
Handicapping the Canadiens (24-25 SU, 30-19 ATS, 24-20-5 O/U)
While Winnipeg is looking to extend its winning streak, Montreal is trying to avoid losing its third game in a row. The Canadiens dropped back-to-back games against Detroit and New Jersey, something they hadn’t done since losing to Pittsburgh and Winnipeg in mid-December. They haven’t lost more than two games in a row since early November, when they suffered six straight losses.
The Canadiens have played well over the last six weeks, going 13-4-2, but their underlying metrics have dipped quite a bit over the last week. Since Jan. 11, Montreal ranks 30th in even-strength expected goals percentage and 25th in shot attempt percentage, but that’s been masked by a positive goal share. The team hasn’t been good on special teams as of late, either. So far in January, the Canadiens have the seventh-worst power play percentage (16.7), and their penalty kill has looked worse than it has in any of the previous months.
Samuel Montembeault has been confirmed to start for the Canadiens following rookie Jakub Dobes’ first loss of the season on Saturday. Montembeault is also coming off a loss, but he played well, posting a .911 save percentage versus Detroit. The 28-year-old is 17-17-3 this season with a .899 save percentage, a 2.99 goals-against average, and three shutouts. He hasn’t lost consecutive games in his last 13 starts, but he is 1-3-1 versus the Jets in his career.
Nick Suzuki leads the team in scoring in January, with 14 points in 12 games, while rookie points leader Lane Hutson is next with 13 points. However, Hutson hasn’t registered a point in his last two games after doing so in nine straight. Hutson has the second-best Calder Trophy odds (+120) behind Macklin Celebrini of the San Jose Sharks, who is listed at -160. Patrik Laine also hasn’t scored in his last three games, but he does have three assists.
Best bet for Jets vs. Canadiens
- Winnipeg Jets Moneyline (-155) at Sports Interaction
With no goaltender confirmed for Winnipeg, there’s some uncertainty as to whether this will end up being a good bet or not. It all depends on whether Hellebuyck is back between the pipes. Rest is important, and while Montreal has a one-day rest advantage over Winnipeg because the Canadiens have had two days off, Hellebuyck has been off for three days, and I don’t believe that’s been taken into account by the betting market. I suspect Winnipeg’s odds will climb quite a bit once Hellebuyck is announced as the starter, if that is the case.