NHL betting preview (Jan. 21): Lightning vs. Canadiens odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s Atlantic Division matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens.
Lightning vs. Canadiens Odds
- Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline: -145
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline: +125
- Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+170), Canadiens +1.5 (-210)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -130, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Lightning (25-20 SU, 24-21 ATS, 20-20-5 O/U)
Tampa Bay has lost significant ground since dropping its Dec. 29 game against the Montreal Canadiens, going 5-6-1. The Lightning did learn a lesson, though: keeping space between them and the Canadiens is more important than catching the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Back on Dec. 28, head coach Jon Cooper decided it would be best to start Andrei Vasilevskiy against the New York Rangers, and who can blame him? It was the first half of a back-to-back, and there were nine points separating the Lightning and Canadiens, who were on deck.
However, the Canadiens won that game easily, by a score of 5-2, and have continued to rack up points since then. Now, there are just three points separating the two teams in the standings, and Cooper clearly felt that punting on Monday’s game in Toronto by starting backup Jonas Johansson was the best decision. Therefore, Vasilevskiy will start on Tuesday.
Over the past month, the Lightning rank 15th in expected goals, 19th in shot attempt percentage, and 21st in goal share at even strength. That said, even when Tampa Bay isn’t playing well, it still has great special teams. The Lightning rank among the top-10 teams on the power play and they’re among the top-five teams on the penalty kill.
Handicapping the Canadiens (23-23 SU, 28-18 ATS, 23-19-4 O/U)
Montreal is 9-2-1 since Dec. 28, and as a result, the Canadiens are just two points behind the Boston Bruins for the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference, with two games in hand as well.
The Canadiens look like the real deal, too. According to Evolving Hockey, Montreal ranks 11th in even strength expected goals percentage, 12th in shot attempts percentage, and third in goal share over the last month, and it’s not like the schedule has been favorable. Moreover, Montreal has outshot 10 of its last 15 opponents.
Only two teams have scored more goals per 60 minutes than the Canadiens over the past month, and they have allowed fewer goals (per 60) than all but 10 teams thanks to solid goaltending from Sam Montembeault and Jakub Dobes.
However, after killing off 82.7 percent of the penalties they took in the first 37 games, the Canadiens have allowed eight goals while down a man in their last nine games, so it’ll be imperative that they try to stay out of the box on Tuesday versus the Lightning.
Best bet for Lightning vs. Canadiens
- 3-way Result: Tie (+320) at Sports Interaction
Montreal has gone to overtime or a shootout in five of its last eight games, and the Canadiens might not win Tuesday’s game outright, but I do think they have what it takes to keep it close. While the Lightning and Canadiens have gone 7-2-1 to the over in the last 10 meetings, this game likely won’t be a blowout, like the majority of those past matchups have been thanks to quality goaltending on both sides.