NHL betting preview (March 4): Penguins vs. Avalanche odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Colorado Avalanche.
Penguins vs. Avalanche Odds
- Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline: +220
- Colorado Avalanche Moneyline: -275
- Puck Line: Penguins +1.5 (-110), Avalanche -1.5 (-110)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Penguins (24-39 SU, 30-33 ATS, 33-27-3 O/U)
Pittsburgh has lost six of its last seven games and now sit just four points ahead of the last-place Buffalo Sabres.
To make matters worse, the Sabres have four games in hand, so not only have the Penguins’ playoff hopes all but faded away, there’s a decent chance they could finish dead last in the Eastern Conference, given Buffalo’s penchant for making late season pushes.
The Penguins will kick off a three-game Western Conference road trip on Tuesday in Colorado before traveling to Vegas and Minnesota. Pittsburgh has gone 10-21 straight up on the road this season and since Dec. 21, the Penguins have lost 11 out of 15 road games.
Moreover, since returning from the break on Feb. 22, Pittsburgh has allowed four goals or more in five out of six games. According to Evolving Hockey, the Penguins rank eighth in shot attempt percentage and 12th in expected goals percentage at five-on-five since Jan. 1, but that hasn’t translated into wins because they also rank among the bottom-10 teams on offense and defense at five-on-five.
From a betting perspective, the Penguins have been the third-worst moneyline bet in the NHL this season, and only three teams have been worse as underdogs. Pittsburgh has been listed as the underdog 47 times this season, and they only have 16 wins, so if a bettor placed a one unit wager on the Penguins to win all of those games, they’d be down roughly nine units.
Handicapping the Avalanche (35-26 SU, 25-36 ATS, 28-29-4 O/U)
Colorado kicked off its six-game homestand with back-to-back wins. First, they defeated the New Jersey Devils 5-1, and then the Minnesota Wild 5-2. Now, they’ll look to win three games in a row for the first time since they won six straight between Dec. 19 and Jan. 2.
Heading into Tuesday’s game, the Avalanche are just two points back of the Wild for the third spot in the Central Division, and they have a seven-point lead on the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks.
The Avalanche have lost six of the past 10 meetings versus the Penguins, but they have won the last two games, including a 6-2 win in Pittsburgh back on Dec. 10. Colorado is 18-10-2 at home this season, and they are 11-2-2 on home ice since Dec. 14, including four consecutive wins.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Avalanche rank third in expected goals percentage, fourth in shot attempt percentage, and fifth in goal share at five-on-five since Feb. 1. They have been scoring at below-average rate, but their strong defense has made up for that. Colorado ranks fourth in goals against per 60 minutes in all situations since the start of February.
Additionally, the Avalanche have been off for three days, so they will have a two-day rest advantage over the Penguins on Tuesday.
Best bet for Penguins vs. Avalanche
- Valeri Nichushkin Anytime Goal (+190) at Sports Interaction
Forward Valeri Nichushkin had 11 goals and six assists in 21 games before he was injured on Dec. 31. He’s registered five shots on goal in each of his two games since returning to the lineup last week, and scored his first goal on Friday against Minnesota. He’s not on the top power play unit, but he is on the second, and given that he’s skating on a line with Jonathan Drouin and Casey Mittelstadt, he will be the go-to option for shots at five-on-five. Pittsburgh has struggled to prevent goals, and Nichushkin’s +190 odds make him an attractive bet to score again on Tuesday.