NHL betting preview (Nov. 8): Penguins vs. Capitals odds

Credit: Apr 4, 2024; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) talks with Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) as repairs are made to the ice surface in the first period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin will face off for the 70th time in the regular season as the Penguins aim to end their road losing streak with a win in Washington on Friday. However, the Capitals enter as clear favorites.

Penguins vs. Capitals Odds

Washington Capitals Moneyline: +140
Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline: -165
Puck Line: Penguins +1.5 (-185), Capitals -1.5 (+150)
Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

Game odds via Sports Interaction.

Matchup

Pittsburgh snapped a six-game losing streak with home wins over two of the league’s weakest teams, Montreal and Anaheim. However, they’ve since dropped two straight on the road, extending their road losing streak to six games. The Penguins are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes. Washington also lost in Carolina but rebounded with a 3-2 home win over the Predators on Wednesday.

The Capitals are strong at home this season, going 7-1 with no losses since their opener. This marks the first of four meetings between Pittsburgh and Washington. Last season, they split their series, with the road team winning each game. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, Washington is 6-5 against Pittsburgh. This will be the first game of a back-to-back for the Capitals, who will play in St. Louis on Saturday, while Pittsburgh will get a couple of days off before hosting Dallas.

Handicapping the Capitals

Washington has arguably improved the most since last season. The Capitals went from being the biggest fraud to make the playoffs to a legitimate contender for the Metropolitan Division title. No team has scored more five-on-five goals per 60 minutes than Washington, which ranks second in expected goals per 60 minutes, according to Evolving Hockey.

Off-season additions like forward Pierre-Luc Dubois and goaltender Logan Thompson have looked good, as have young players like Aliaksei Protas and Connor McMichael. However, it’s veterans like Dylan Strome and Ovechkin that are leading the charge. Strome is on pace to have his first ever 100-point season, while Ovechkin is on pace to score 50-plus goals.

The Capitals have struggled to convert on the power play, but despite ranking 32nd on the man advantage, there are strong indications that it will turn around. Washington currently ranks ninth in expected goals on the power play. However, things have gone well on the penalty kill, as Washington has successfully killed off more than 85 percent of its penalties and the team ranks fifth in expected goals against while shorthanded.

Handicapping the Penguins

Teams are rarely as good or as bad as their record suggests, and that’s the case for the Penguins. However, improving might be tough for Pittsburgh because the team’s issues are so widespread, specifically on defense. Not only are the Penguins allowing more five-on-five goals than all but one team, they also rank among the bottom-five in expected goals and shots against at five-on-five, according to Evolving Hockey.

Some will point to offense as an area that the Penguins can immediately improve, especially given the fact that they rank fourth in expected goals per 60 minutes. However, while an uptick in their five-on-five scoring wouldn’t be surprising, the team has underperformed expected goals in four consecutive seasons. Pittsburgh ranks sixth in shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five, but it ranks 25th in shooting percentage, which is within range of its shooting percentage over the past four seasons.

Sidney Crosby has scored five goals and three assists in the last five games after scoring just one goal in the first 11 games, but Evgeni Malkin has gone pointless in eight out of the last 10 games after putting up 11 points in the first five games. Unless the team can get both Crosby and Malkin producing on a consistent basis, simultaneously, it’s going to be hard for Pittsburgh to win games. Scoring by committee is clearly not working, and neither is carrying three goaltenders.

Best Bets for Penguins vs. Capitals

There’s value on the home team at -165 odds, but there’s also value on the following player props:

Dylan Strome Over 1 Points (+125) at BetVictor

With 19 points in 12 games, Dylan Strome leads the Capitals in scoring and is just six points behind the top scorer in the league. The 27-year-old has registered a point in all but one game so far this season, including every home game. Strome has three goals and 11 assists in eight home games so far and he’s registered multiple points in five different home games.

Aliaksei Protas Over 0.5 Points (+130) at Sports Interaction

Aliaksei Protas set career highs in goals (six), points (29), and games played (78) last season, but he’s on pace to crush his previous total. Protas has scored six goals and 12 points in 12 games skating on the wing alongside Dylan Strome and Alexander Ovechkin at five-on-five. The 23-year-old doesn’t typically get power play time, but he’s still managed to pick up goals in four of his last five, to go along with four assists.

Follow Andy’s bets on the Action App here.