NHL betting preview (March 31): Predators vs. Flyers odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Monday’s matchup between the Nashville Predators and Philadelphia Flyers.
Predators vs. Flyers Odds
- Nashville Predators Moneyline: +100
- Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline: -120
- Puck Line: Predators +1.5 (-250), Flyers -1.5 (+200)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Predators (27-36 SU, 30-43 ATS, 28-45-0 O/U)
Monday’s game in Philadelphia is the start of a three-game road trip for Nashville. The Predators will look to avoid losing their third game in a row, which would be their eighth loss in their last 10 games. Nashville is coming off back-to-back losses versus the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights.
Offense continues to be a huge problem for the Predators, who have scored two or fewer goals in seven of their last nine games, but it’s been a problem all season. No team has scored fewer goals per 60 minutes than Nashville, despite ranking among the top-10 teams in expected goals and shot attempts. Only two players, Filip Forsberg (28) and Steven Stamkos (23) have scored more than 20 goals, and only Forsberg has registered more than 50 points.
Nashville also ranks among the bottom-10 teams in goals against per 60. Juuse Saros, Scott Wedgewood, and Justus Annunen have all allowed more goals than an average goaltender would have based on shot quality, according to Evolving Hockey’s goals saved above expected metric, and Saros has been among the worst goalies in the league over the last month. That said, the team has been average defensively in the month of March.
From a betting perspective, no team has underperformed more than the Predators, and as a result, they have been the worst moneyline bet this season by far. If a bettor had bet on the Predators to win every game this season, they’d be down 22.3 units.
Nashville is also still without star defenseman Roman Josi, who has not played since Feb. 25.
Handicapping the Flyers (30-45 SU, 37-38 ATS, 36-37-2 O/U)
Philadelphia fired head coach John Tortorella on Thursday following a 7-2 loss at the hand of the Maple Leafs. Tortorella wasn’t able to help the Flyers qualify for the playoffs in his time as head coach and this season, he had guided them to the worst record (28-36-9) in the Metropolitan Division.
In the two games since then, however, the Flyers’ offense has exploded for 13 goals. First, Philadelphia defeated the Montreal Canadiens 6-4, and then dominated the Buffalo Sabres by a score of 7-4. The Flyers only scored six goals or more in four games under Tortorella this season.
Additionally, the Flyers had gone 13 games without a power play goal, but they have scored three goals on the man advantage in those two games. Now, Philadelphia will look to earn its third victory in a row in the final game of a three-game homestand against the Predators.
Of course, defense is still an issue for this team. Only four teams have allowed more goals on a per-60 minute basis this season, and they’ve allowed eight goals in the last two games. That might not be a big concern against a Predators team that is inept offensively, but it’s something that the team will have to improve if they want to make the playoffs next season.
I mean, this isn’t a bad hockey team. According to Evolving Hockey, the Flyers rank fourth in expected goals percentage at five-on-five, and only one team has allowed fewer expected goals per 60 minutes. Moreover, while the Flyers do rank among the 10 least profitable moneyline bets this season, they’ve almost managed to break even on home ice. Philadelphia is 18-19-1 at home this season.
Best bets for Predators vs. Flyers
- Matvei Michkov Anytime Goal (+195) at Sports Interaction
The Flyers are finally having fun again, and no player has benefited more than rookie Matvei Michkov, who has looked more dangerous than ever. In two games since the coaching change, Michkov has scored four goals on 11 shots and he also registered three assists. The 20-year-old had only played 19:59 or more six times in his first 70 games under Tortorella, but in two games under interim head coach Brad Shaw, Michkov has played 19:59 and 20:29.