NHL betting preview (Nov. 13): Red Wings vs. Penguins odds

Credit: © Jerome Miron

Pittsburgh and Detroit look to bounce back from tough losses when they meet for the second time this season on Wednesday, with the Penguins as -140 moneyline favorites.

Red Wings vs. Penguins Odds

Detroit Red Wings Moneyline: +120
Pittsburgh Penguins Moneyline: -140
Puck Line: Red Wings +1.5 (-210), Penguins -1.5 (+170)
Game Total: 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)

Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Red Wings (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-8 O/U)

Detroit started the season 4-3 straight-up but has struggled since, going just 2-7 due to scoring issues. The Red Wings have scored two or fewer goals in five of their last seven games and rank in the bottom five in scoring. They currently sit below the Penguins in the Eastern Conference standings, with three games in hand.

This week offers Detroit a chance to rebound, with matchups against the 25th, 28th, and 29th place teams. Although they lost the season opener to Pittsburgh—marking four losses in their last five meetings with the Penguins—the Red Wings have had three days to recover after their 4-0 shutout loss to the Rangers, while Pittsburgh has only had a day to regroup from a 7-1 loss to Dallas.

Cam Talbot has been solid in his last three starts, holding opponents to two or fewer goals, though he’s allowed three or more in half of his starts. Talbot still gives Detroit an edge in goal over the Penguins, as he ranks third in save percentage and ninth in goals saved above expected among goaltenders who have faced at least 300 unblocked shot attempts, according to Evolving Hockey.

Handicapping the Penguins (6-11 SU, 7-10 ATS, 9-7-1 O/U)

The Penguins are off to a rough 6-9-2 start, prompting general manager Kyle Dubas to make his first roster change on Tuesday, trading veteran Lars Eller back to the Washington Capitals in exchange for a couple of draft picks. This move doesn’t do much for the Penguins right now. If anything, the team may be worse off, but it could signal more changes if Pittsburgh doesn’t start winning.

Pittsburgh has gone 3-4 straight-up at home this season, though two of those wins came against the Canadiens and Ducks, so the record may be a bit misleading. The Penguins have allowed four or more goals (5.4 goals against on average) in every other home game. According to Evolving Hockey, Pittsburgh ranks 30th in shots against and 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes, with only Montreal allowing more goals than the Penguins.

Alex Nedeljkovic, who is likely to start for the Penguins, currently ranks 30th out of 35 in save percentage and goals saved above expected among goalies who have faced at least 300 unblocked shot attempts. Nedeljkovic has just two wins in eight games this season, both against Montreal and Anaheim. The Penguins do rank among the top 10 in expected goals and shot attempts per 60, but it hasn’t been enough to outscore their defensive issues.

Best Bets for Red Wings vs. Penguins

Lucas Raymond Anytime Goal (+220) at Sports Interaction

Raymond scored 14 goals and 21 points in his final 18 games last season, but so far, the puck hasn’t been going in for the former No. 4 pick. He does lead the team in scoring with 13 points, though his only goal came on a shorthanded breakaway against the Sabres back on Oct. 26. Here’s the thing: Raymond’s shooting percentage has never dipped below 12.5 percent over a full season. He might not replicate the 19 percent he achieved last season, but the former 30-goal scorer is clearly capable of more than his current 4.5 percent.

Shot volume has also been an issue, as he’s registered one or fewer shots in nine out of 14 games. However, head coach Derek Lalonde has directed him to shoot more, and in his last game, he attempted nine shots—far more than in any previous game—and registered four on goal. Detroit has recorded 26 or fewer shots in 10 of its 14 games, but the Wings managed 32 against the Penguins earlier this season, and Pittsburgh has allowed 74 shots over their last two games.

Considering eight of the past 10 meetings between the Penguins and Red Wings have featured nine goals or more, and with Raymond playing on the top line alongside Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat and on the top power play unit, this matchup could be just what he needs to get the monkey off his back.

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