NHL betting preview (Feb. 25): Red Wings vs. Wild odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the Detroit Red Wings and Minnesota Wild.
Red Wings vs. Wild Odds
- Detroit Red Wings Moneyline: +100
- Minnesota Wild Moneyline: -120
- Puck Line: Red Wings +1.5 (-250), Wild -1.5 (+200)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Red Wings (29-28 SU, 35-22 ATS, 28-25-4 O/U)
Detroit blew a 3-1 lead at home against the Wild on Saturday, allowing three unanswered goals in a 4-3 overtime loss. On Tuesday, the Red Wings will wrap up the season series against Minnesota, a team that has defeated them in eight of 10 meetings since the 2019-20 season.
The Red Wings did manage to bounce back from that loss with a win over Anaheim, but not before once again blowing a 3-1 lead. Detroit scored three goals in the first five minutes and led 4-1 just 2:14 into the second period. However, like the Wild, Anaheim went on to score three straight goals before Patrick Kane netted the overtime winner.
Under Todd McLellan, Detroit has gone 16-5-2, the fourth-best record in the NHL during that span. However, while the team looks strong on the surface, its underlying numbers remain mediocre. The Red Wings have improved their shot share, but they still rank among the bottom 10 teams in expected goals percentage at even strength. Because they struggle offensively, they also rank among the bottom 10 in goal share.
Perhaps the main reason for Detroit’s improvement is the power play, which has been a league-best 38.9 percent under McLellan. However, that doesn’t seem sustainable, and they have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the NHL. The Red Wings have also struggled on the penalty kill, ranking among the bottom five with a 72.1 percent success rate since the coaching change. On the bright side, they’ve received solid goaltending from Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot.
From a betting perspective, Detroit has been the third-best underdog bet this season, posting a 22-20 record overall and a 12-10 mark as road underdogs. A bettor who placed a one-unit wager on the Red Wings in every game where they were underdogs this season would be up almost 10 units.
Handicapping the Wild (34-23 SU, 29-28 ATS, 25-29-3 O/U)
Minnesota has had a couple of days off since defeating the Red Wings in Detroit on Saturday, giving the Wild a one-day rest advantage as they seek their third straight win. So far this season, home teams with an extra day of rest have won 57.9 percent of the time, compared to an implied probability of 54.4 percent.
However, injuries remain a problem for the Wild, who are still without star forward Kirill Kaprizov. The team suffered another setback on Monday when center Joel Eriksson Ek sustained an undisclosed injury in practice and was subsequently placed on injured reserve. That leaves Minnesota without two top-six forwards heading into Tuesday’s game.
The Wild have declined significantly, largely due to the number of key players who have missed time this season. As of Dec. 1, they had the best even-strength goal share in the NHL and ranked sixth in expected goals percentage, according to Evolving Hockey. Since then, however, Minnesota ranks 27th in expected goals percentage and shot attempt percentage and 25th in even-strength goal share.
Goaltender Filip Gustavsson has also regressed. Between October and December, he ranked seventh in goals saved above expected, but since then, he has dropped 50 spots to 57th in that category. Marc-Andre Fleury has been solid, but the 40-year-old will serve as the backup on Tuesday.
Best bet for Red Wings vs. Wild
- Matt Boldy Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (+100) at Sports Interaction
One player that has been durable for the Wild is forward Matt Boldy, who has played in all 57 games. Boldy and Marco Rossi have been the team’s best offensive players, but Boldy is far and away the team’s top generator of shots on goal. Boldly has 198 shots on goal this season, which is 70 more than the team’s next best player. The 23-year-old registered six shots on goal against the Red Wings on Saturday and has recorded four or more shots in 13 of his last 21 games.