NHL betting preview (Dec. 17): Sabres vs. Canadiens odds

NHL betting preview (Dec. 17): Sabres vs. Canadiens odds
Credit: Feb 13, 2024; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens center Nick Suzuki (14) celebrates his second goal of the game against the Anaheim Ducks with right wing Cole Caufield (22) during the second period at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports

Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens.

Sabres vs. Canadiens Odds

  • Buffalo Sabres Moneyline: -125
  • Montreal Canadiens Moneyline: +105
  • Puck Line: Sabres -1.5 (+195), Canadiens +1.5 (-250)
  • Game Total: 6 (Over -115, Under -105)

Game odds via Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Sabres (11-20 SU, 15-16 ATS, 15-11-5 O/U)

Buffalo is reeling after dropping its 10th straight game on Sunday, yet the betting market still favors the Sabres over the Canadiens, who sit just one point behind them in the standings. While Buffalo has won four of its past five trips to Montreal, the Sabres have also lost five of their past eight meetings against the Canadiens. It’s not like Buffalo is strong on the road, either—the Sabres are just 5-7 straight-up away from home this season.

Per Evolving Hockey, Buffalo ranks 30th in goals scored and 31st in goals against per 60 minutes over its last 10 games. The Sabres also sit 26th in even-strength expected goals percentage, with only four teams allowing more shot attempts. Special teams have been a problem, too, particularly over the last 10 games. Buffalo’s power play has converted just 14.6 percent of opportunities this season, and it’s been even colder lately, clicking at just 7.7 percent.

The penalty kill hasn’t fared much better, as the Sabres rank among the bottom 10 teams during their recent slump. That said, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen hasn’t been bad. He’s had some poor performances, but overall, the Sabres’ starter has given his team a better chance to win than his record suggests. However, Luukkonen has been more prone to bad starts over the past month, ranking 60th out of 75 goaltenders in goals saved above expected. Compounding issues, Rasmus Dahlin has missed the last six games due to back spasms.

Handicapping the Canadiens (11-19 SU, 14-16 ATS, 15-13-2 O/U)

Things aren’t as bleak for Montreal, but the Canadiens are also looking to rebound after dropping their last two games. They were blown out 9-2 at home by the Pittsburgh Penguins, then fell 4-2 on the road to the Winnipeg Jets. Montreal faces a tough stretch ahead, playing 10 of its next 14 games on the road, so things could get ugly. That said, the Sabres and Red Wings are the only opponents before the holiday break, giving Montreal a decent chance to get back on track.

Nick Suzuki leads the Canadiens with 30 points, including 11 goals, in 30 games. Cole Caufield has paced the team in goal scoring, with 17 goals in 30 games. Beyond Suzuki and Caufield, however, only Patrik Laine has performed like a top-six forward—and he’s only played six games. Juraj Slafkovsky, Kirby Dach, and Alex Newhook continue to struggle, and until they figure it out, Montreal will have a hard time winning games.

Over the last month, the Canadiens rank as a bottom-10 team offensively and a bottom-five team defensively at five-on-five. Montreal also sits 22nd in expected goals percentage, which isn’t great but still better than Buffalo. In goal, Sam Montembeault has been a bright spot despite his rough outing against Pittsburgh. Over his last 10 games, Montembeault has saved nearly six goals above expected, which means he’s among the top-10 goaltenders in that category. 

Best Bets for Sabres vs. Canadiens

  • Nick Suzuki Anytime Goal (+250) at Sports Interaction
  • Nick Suzuki 2+ Shots On Goal (-111) at BetVictor

Suzuki doesn’t shoot the puck nearly as much as Caufield or Laine, but he has been generating just as many expected goals over the past 15 games, on top of scoring just as many goals. Suzuki scored two goals versus the Sabres back on Nov. 11, and he has registered three or more shots on goal in seven out of his last 10 games against Buffalo. Given how much the Sabres have struggled to prevent shots and goals, this is a good matchup to back Suzuki to generate shots, and hopefully, a goal. That said, while I do think there’s value in betting on the captain to register two-plus shots on goal at -111 odds, you can also bet on him to register three-plus shots on goal for +160 at one sportsbook, so shop around.

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