NHL betting preview (Dec. 23): Sabres vs. Islanders odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Monday’s tilt between the Buffalo Sabres and New York Islanders.
Sabres vs. Islanders Odds
- Buffalo Sabres Moneyline: +130
- New York Islanders Moneyline: -155
- Puck Line: Sabres +1.5 (-190), Islanders -1.5 (+155)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Sabres (11-23 SU, 15-19 ATS, 17-12-5 O/U)
Buffalo has a chance to spread some holiday cheer with a win on Monday. Otherwise, the Sabres will head into the break on a 14-game losing streak. However, the odds aren’t in their favor. Despite a 6-5 record against New York since the start of the 2021-22 season, Buffalo has lost the first two meetings with the Islanders this year and enters this game as a +130 underdog in what will be its third game in four days.
The Sabres have allowed at least three goals in 12 of their last 13 games, and during that stretch, they’ve given up 4.08 goals per game—the worst mark in the league, by about a quarter of a goal per game. According to Evolving Hockey, goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ranks last in goals saved above expected (-9.63).
Luukkonen was ranked 13th in that category before the losing skid and 24th in save percentage, but he now has the worst save percentage among goaltenders who have faced at least 400 unblocked shot attempts over the past month. Of course, the goaltender doesn’t deserve all the blame—only four teams have allowed more expected goals against (per 60) than Buffalo has over the last month.
Not only have the Sabres been hanging their goaltender out to dry, but they also haven’t been providing much support. Buffalo has scored two or fewer goals in eight of their last 13 games, with Tage Thompson being the only skater with more than three goals. No skater has more than eight points in the last 13 games.
Handicapping the Islanders (13-21 SU, 15-19 ATS, 19-13-2 O/U)
The Islanders doubled up on the Toronto Maple Leafs (6-3) on Saturday, but they’ve only managed to win consecutive games twice this season. Additionally, they’ve posted their worst home win rate (.400) so far this season, the lowest since 2013-14.
The biggest reason for New York’s struggles is scoring—or rather, the lack of it. On the road, they’ve managed just 2.63 goals per game and have been shut out four times. At home, they’ve only scored 2.67 goals per game, and in all but five home games, they’ve scored three or fewer goals.
Mathew Barzal has finally recovered from his injury. It took him a few games to score his first goal, but he’s had 11 shots on goal in three games, including nine in his last two outings, and sealed the victory against Toronto with an empty-net goal. Anthony Duclair also played his first game since Oct. 19 on Saturday, picking up an assist. In other words, New York’s forward group is healthy for the first time in a long time.
However, while the Sabres have clearly been the worst defensive team as of late, New York ranks as the seventh-worst team in goals against per 60 minutes since Nov. 25. The Islanders have allowed three or more goals in 10 of their last 11 games. Surprisingly, only two goaltenders have allowed more goals relative to expectations than Ilya Sorokin, according to Evolving Hockey.
Semyon Varlamov hasn’t started since Nov. 29, and is expected to be sidelined for the remainder of the month with a lower-body injury. As a result, Sorokin will make his 11th consecutive start dating back to Nov. 30.
Best bets for Sabres vs. Islanders
- Over 5.5 Goals (-120) at Sports Interaction
The Sabres and Islanders are 3-7 to the under in their last 10 meetings, but a combined 36-25-7 to the over this season. Additionally, 21 of the Islanders’ 34 games have featured at least six goals, while 23 of the Sabres’ last 31 have reached that threshold. Buffalo and New York rank 22nd and 27th in goals per 60 minutes, respectively, and 27th and 20th in goals against per 60. There’s a wide range of possible outcomes here, as seen in their two previous meetings: on Nov. 1, they combined for seven goals, but just three on Nov. 30. If the total were set at six, -120, it wouldn’t be a good bet, but 5.5 at -120 is worth a wager.