NHL betting preview (March 5): Blackhawks vs. Senators odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Wednesday’s matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Chicago Blackhawks.
Senators vs. Blackhawks Odds
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: -210
- Chicago Blackhawks Moneyline: +175
- Puck Line: Senators -1.5 (+118), Blackhawks +1.5 (-145)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Senators (30-30 SU, 26-37 ATS, 23-31-6 O/U)
Ottawa overcame a three-goal deficit on Monday to force overtime against the Washington Capitals, but the Senators fell 5-4 in the extra frame. They now sit one point behind the Detroit Red Wings and New York Rangers, who they’ll host in back-to-back home games on Saturday and Monday. However, they can’t afford to look past Wednesday’s matchup in Chicago.
The Senators are 1-5-1 since Feb. 4, and since Jan. 1, they rank 25th in shot attempts and 26th in expected goals at five-on-five — not exactly playoff-caliber metrics. Getting Brady Tkachuk, Shane Pinto, and Josh Norris back should help, but time is running out, and they can’t afford to drop points against the 31st-place team.
History isn’t on Ottawa’s side, as the Senators are 1-11 in their last 12 meetings against Chicago. They won the most recent matchup on March 28, 2024, by a score of 2-0, but had lost 11 straight before that. Ottawa hasn’t won in Chicago since Dec. 20, 2016.
From a betting perspective, this will be just the second time this season that Ottawa has been a road favorite of -200 or greater. The Senators closed as -241 favorites in San Jose earlier this season, narrowly winning 4-3. They’re 3-5 as road favorites overall, losing more than three units for bettors who backed them in each of those games.
Handicapping the Blackhawks (19-42 SU, 33-28 ATS, 29-24-8 O/U)
Chicago has won consecutive games for the first time since the middle of December after defeating the Anaheim Ducks 6-3 and the Los Angeles Kings 5-1. The Blackhawks have only scored five or more goals in 10 games this season, but five of those performances have come since Feb. 7, including their last three games in a row, so the team has some confidence offensively heading into this matchup.
The Blackhawks also have confidence in newly acquired goaltender Spencer Knight after he stopped 41 of 42 shots in his debut following the trade that sent Seth Jones to the Florida Panthers. Knight was selected 13th by the Panthers in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, so it’s no wonder why many view the 23-year-old as the goalie of the future for the franchise. However, Knight will not be in goal on Wednesday, as the team has already confirmed that Arvid Soderblom will get the start.
Soderblom has also been good this season, ranking 29th in both save percentage and goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. Soderblom has only picked up eight wins in 26 starts, but that is more of an indictment on the team, rather than his play. Chicago ranked as the second-worst offensive team in the league prior to the start of February, and they also grade out among the bottom-five in shots and expected goals against.
Unfortunately, despite the good vibes brought on by the trade, and their new-found offensive prowess, Chicago still ranks dead last in even-strength expected goals percentage and shot attempt percentage, so any success they have will almost certainly be short lived.
Best bets for Senators vs. Blackhawks
- Tim Stutzle Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+125) at Sports Interaction
Tim Stutzle set a new franchise record with assists in 11 consecutive games after recording two helpers against the Washington Capitals on Monday. The 23-year-old also extended his points streak to 12 games. However, from a betting perspective, it’s Stutzle’s shot totals that stand out. He’s registered three or more shots on goal in seven of his last 13 games and has generated 13 shots in his last four. With Chicago struggling to suppress shots, Stutzle is a strong bet to go over 2.5 shots on goal at +125 odds.
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