NHL betting preview (Nov. 1): Panthers vs. Stars odds
The Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers, both considered Stanley Cup contenders, are set to clash in the NHL Global Series in Finland this Friday. This will be the first of two consecutive games between the teams and oddsmakers view this matchup as a pick‘em.
Panthers vs Stars Odds
- Florida Panthers Moneyline: -110
- Dallas Stars Moneyline: -110
- Puck Line: Panthers +1.5 (-250), Stars -1.5 (+200)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -105, Under -115)
All odds via Sports Interaction.
Matchup
The Florida Panthers are showing no signs of a Stanley Cup hangover, with a 7-4 straight-up record that puts them at the top of the Atlantic Division. Dallas has also had a strong start, going 7-2 and currently tied with Minnesota for second place in the Central Division.
Both teams have been solid puck line bets, with the Stars at 5-4 and the Panthers at 5-6 against the puck line. In their last six meetings, the two teams have split wins, though Florida took both matchups last season. This should be a competitive matchup between two equally matched teams, especially because home-ice advantage isn’t a factor at a neutral site.
Since 2007, the club designated as the home team has gone 17-21 straight-up in games that take place outside of North America.
Handicapping Panthers vs. Stars
Based on their records, there isn’t much separating Dallas and Florida, but their underlying metrics tell a different story. The Panthers rank among the top-five teams in shot attempt percentage and top-10 teams in expected goals percentage at even strength. Dallas, on the other hand, ranks 20th in expected goals, but they’ve still controlled the majority of shots.
Dallas leans toward the under at 2-5-2, while Florida has hit the over at 8-3, with five of their last six matchups combining for seven goals or more. Both clubs rank among the top-10 teams in goals against, but no team has allowed fewer goals than the Stars on a per-60 minute basis. Of course, how both coaches decide to use their goaltending tandems could influence how many goals are scored in a given game.
Jake Oettinger, who has been announced as Friday’s starter, is playing like a legitimate contender for the Vezina Trophy, posting a .938 save percentage and a 1.84 goals against average. According to Evolving Hockey, Oettinger ranks third in goals saved above expected among goaltenders that have played at least 100 minutes.
However, if there’s one member of the Panthers that might be suffering from a Stanley Cup hangover, it’s Sergei Bobrovsky. The veteran goaltender has posted the fourth-worst mark in goals saved above expected. Casey DeSmith also grades out as a much better backup than Spencer Martin, so goaltending gives the Stars an edge in the Global Series.
My Best Bet
Wyatt Johnston Anytime Goal (+300) at Sports Interaction
While some sportsbooks have Stars forward Wyatt Johnston listed at +220 or even +175 to score a goal on Friday, Sports Interaction has him at +300 odds, which makes it a worthwhile bet. Johnston leads all Stars forwards in ice time, expected goals, and unblocked shot attempts. He’s also tied for third on the team in shots. Johnston has scored just one goal in his first nine games but he scored 24 and 32 goals, respectively, in each of his first two seasons and it’s only a matter of time before he goes off.
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