NHL Bubble Watch: Assessing the remaining schedules for playoff-hungry teams
The trade deadline has come and gone, with 19 trades made on March 3 alone. Some teams are happy with their results, some probably not so much. The one thing all teams have in common now is that the trade rumors have been put on hold and the only thing to worry about is wins and losses.
In this article, we will take a look at eight teams that still have work to do in the playoff race and how their remaining schedules can help or hurt their aspirations.
Western Conference
Edmonton Oilers
Record: 35-22-8, WC Wildcard 1
Games remaining: 17
One might think that a team that employs the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl would be a shoe-in for the playoffs every year. They currently sit in the first wildcard spot in the West, nine points ahead of the best non-playoff team, the Nashville Predators. That’s a convincing lead but the Predators have four games in hand on Edmonton.
The Oilers have a normal schedule for the remaining 17 games of their season. Those games will be spread out over 35 days. They will have two separate back-to-backs, the first one beginning March 27 on the road against the Arizona Coyotes and Vegas Golden Knights. The second back-to-back will again be on the road, this time against the Los Angeles Kings and Anaheim Ducks on April 4-5.
Nine out of 17 of their remaining games will be on the road. Additionally, nine out of 17 games will be against teams currently not in playoff spots, with seven of their opponents in a mad-dash for Connor Bedard.
Winnipeg Jets
Record: 36-25-3, 3rd Central
Games remaining: 18
The Jets are in a similar spot in the standings as the Oilers are except they are in a slightly worse playoff position. They currently sit in the third Central slot, six points ahead of the Predators, but the Predators have three games in hand on them.
Of their final 18 regular-season games, the Jets will be on the road for 10 of them. They are in a good position for the final stretch but they’re going to need to tighten up their road record a bit. Right now, the Jets have a 15-15-1 record on the road compared to 21-10-2 at home.
The rest of the season is evenly spaced out with only one back-to-back remaining on the schedule. They will play the Sharks April 10 at home then play the Wild on the road the following night. They will be playing against current non-playoff teams for 10 of their final 18 games, including two important games against the Predators, who are underdogs at best to win the race after selling off several key veterans before the trade deadline.
Colorado Avalanche
Record: 34-21-6, WC Wildcard 2
Games remaining: 21
Few teams have a tighter season-finishing schedule than the Avalanche. They currently sit in the second spot in the wildcard, one point behind the Jets in points but with three games in hand. After a slow start to the season due to catastrophic injuries, the Avalanche have found their footing and will likely contend for the Stanley Cup once again.
Of their remaining 21 games, 11 will be on the road. Whoever cooke up the NHL schedule made sure the Avalanche wouldn’t cruise into the playoffs this year. Eight of their remaining games will be on four separate back-to-backs.
The first one will be March 15-16 on the road against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators. Then, later in the month there will be another back-to-back on the road against the Coyotes and Ducks. On April 8-9 they will be on the road yet again for a meeting with the Kings and Ducks. The final back-to-back on the schedule will take place on the last two games of the season. In this one, the first game is at home versus the Jets, the second game is on the road against the Predators. The Avs play five games beween April 8 and 14 in a gruelling stretch to finish their season.
However, 13 of their last 21 games will be against current non-playoff teams.
Nashville Predators
Record: 31-23-7, 9th Western Conference
Games remaining: 21
It will not be an easy road for the Predators to make the postseason this year, but it would be a lie to say they’re out of the race. According to the odds at MoneyPuck.com, the Predators have a 18.1% chance of making the playoffs.
A lot of that depends on their remaining schedule. Eleven out of the last 21 games will be at home, which is good because the Predators have a healthy 16-11-3 home record this year.
The Predators don’t have any back-to-backs in the month of March but they do have a couple in April. They will play three games in four days against the St. Louis Blues, Dallas Stars, and Vegas Golden Knights. Additionally, the final two games of the season will be a home back-to-back versus the Wild and Avalanche.
Two-thirds of their remaining schedule will be against current playoff teams.
Eastern Conference
New York Islanders
Record: 32-25-8, EC Wildcard 1
Games remaining: 17
By standings points, the Islanders are first in the Wild Card by four points. But by points percentage the race is much closer. The reason for this discrepancy is because the Islanders had a more “front-loaded” schedule and will have a less busy schedule down the stretch to let other teams catch up to them in games played.
The Islanders made a big splash prior to the trade deadline when they acquired Bo Horvat from the Vancouver Canucks. They’re trying to cling onto a Wildcard spot for the rest of the season. That will be difficult with a couple of hungry teams with games in hand on them nipping at their heels.
Nine of their remaining 17 games are on the road and a majority of the remaining games are against current playoff teams as well. They also have a couple of back-to-backs to contend with. First, they face the Kings and Ducks on their California road trip. Later in the month they will play the Columbus Blue Jackets and Sabres. The latter matchup will be crucial, as well tonight’s home date with the Sabres.
Buffalo Sabres
Record: 32-26-4, 9th Western Conference
Games remaining: 20
The Sabres have been one of the most exciting teams to watch in the NHL this year. Right now, they are right behind the Islanders for the last playoff spot in the East. There are six teams in the hunt for the final two berths in the East. But the two teams at the bottom, the Panthers and Capitals, are slowly losing ground and might soon be considered out of the playoff race.
Somehow, amidst all the success the Sabres have been having this year, they still have a very poor home record. They are 13-16-2 at home and the only reason they’re anywhere near the playoffs is due to their 19-9-2 road record.
Of their final 20 games, 12 will be on the road. If current trends continue the Sabres will have an unusual advantage going into the last stretch of the season. They have two sets of back-to-backs in the final 20 games, one of them finishing up tonight in New York against the Islanders.
The other back-to-back on the schedule is set to take place in mid April on the road against the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils. Eleven of their remaining games will be against current playoff teams, although two of those games are against the Islanders who Buffalo is technically tied with in the standings.
Ottawa Senators
Record: 32-27-4, 10th Eastern Conference
Games remaining: 19
The fact that the Senators are currently in the thick of the playoff race is almost unbelievable. After yet another poor start to the season, they have somehow came all the way back and now sit fourth in the Wildcard race, three points back of the Penguins.
Like most teams, the Senators play better at home and this year they have a 19-12-2 record in Ottawa. Due to the way the schedule was set up, the Senators have played 33 games at home and 30 on the road this year. That means their remaining schedule will be road-heavy.
Twelve of their remaining 19 games will be played against current playoff teams. They also have two back-to-backs on their schedule. The Senators will play two road games against the Penguins and Boston Bruins on March 20-21. Those games will be crucial for their playoff chances. They will also be playing the Maple Leafs and Blue Jackets on April 1-2.
According to MoneyPuck.com, their playoff chances currently sit at 24.1% while taking into account their tough schedule.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Record: 31-22-9, EC Wildcard 2
Games remaining: 20
The Penguins are one of the teams in the thick of the Eastern Conference wildcard race. By points percentage, they currently sit in the first wildcard spot with a small cushion between them and the Senators and Sabres.
In what might be one of the last dances in the Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin era, the Penguins certainly want to make the most of this season. They acquired Mikael Granlund, Nick Bonino, and Dmitry Kulikov at the deadline to try to make a run for the cup once again.
They have a favorable home/away schedule for the rest of the season. Twelve of their final 20 games will be at home in Pittsburgh and with a 16-9-4 home record it’s looking good for them.
The Penguins have a couple of back-to-backs to consider. The first will be a couple of road games against the Avalanche and Stars later this month. Then, in early April they will play two home games against the Bruins and Flyers.
Additionally, 11 of their last 20 games will be against current non-playoff teams. They also have three games on the schedule against the New York Rangers. Those two teams last played each other December 20 and Pittsburgh took it by a 3-2 score.