NHL Draft Lottery Preview: Rating the contending team’s prospect pools

Credit: (Photo by Steven Ellis/The Hockey News)

If your favorite team appears in this story: congratulations! They were miserable this season!

The 2023 NHL Draft lottery takes place tonight, with 11 teams holding a chance to land Connor Bedard with the first overall pick. It’s a day that’ll change a franchise. And, fortunately for the teams that miss out, you’ve got an excellent chance of landing someone that can become an instant star as well.

This feels like a day a million years in the making. Connor Bedard has been in the eye of the conscious hockey fan for about five years now, ever since he was putting up incredible numbers against older talent growing up. These phenoms come about once a decade, and Bedard is easily the best prospect since Connor McDavid. Even if he lives up to 75 percent of the hype, he’ll be one of the best players in the world.

With a range of teams in the mix, there are various levels of talent in the pipeline wherever he goes. The teams with the best odds – Anaheim, Columbus and Chicago – have promising prospect pools, but the quality starts to dip down the farther you go. But the consensus around scouts is that he’ll draw talent with him no matter where Bedard lands.

Drafting a pending superstar doesn’t mean instant success – ask the Edmonton Oilers or Toronto Maple Leafs about that. But it’ll definitely get you closer. Here’s a look at how the future for the 11 teams in the hunt for Bedard is shaping up – ranked by their lottery odds.

1. Anaheim Ducks (25.5 percent)

While the Ducks lack a true game-changing prospect, they have some tremendous quality regardless. They’re exceptionally strong in the blueline department with Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, Tristan Luneau and Jackson LaCombe. They also have a hard-working two-way forward in Nathan Gaucher and a pure goal-scorer in Sasha Pastujov. Even Lukas Dostal looks capable of being a quality NHL goaltender. The team already has a decent young core with Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish, Troy Terry and Jamie Drysdale, but landing Bedard would make this the No. 1 prospect pool, no question. (Rating: A-)

2. Columbus Blue Jackets (13.5 percent)

The Blue Jackets promoted Kent Johnson and Kirill Marchenko to full-time NHL duty this year, but they still have one of the best pools in the league. Their biggest strength is on the blueline, with David Jiricek being one of the best prospects in the world, and Denton Mateychuk, Corson Ceulemans and Stanislav Svozil all being great in their own way. They also have Jordan Dumais, a small QMJHL forward with 140 points this past season – three behind Bedard. The one thing missing is a top-flight goaltender, but Daniil Tarasov looks to be NHL-ready for next year. There’s some strong quantity, and quality, in Ohio’s future. (Rating: A-)

3. Chicago Blackhawks (11.5 percent)

The Blackhawks made their intentions exceptionally clear last summer, trading away key players to land solid draft assets. They had four picks in the top 40, with Kevin Korchinski and Frank Nazar instantly becoming two of the team’s top prospects. They already had Nolan Allan and Lukas Reichel from the previous two drafts and quality depth options like Ryan Greene, Gavin Hayes and Ethan Del Mastro. Add in one of the better young college goalies in Drew Commesso and the future is bright in Chicago. (Rating: A)

4. San Jose Sharks (9.5 percent)

The Sharks added some heavy hitters to the team’s future at the trade deadline, acquiring Henry Thrun from Anaheim and Skahir Mukhamadullin. That’s arguably two of the team’s best prospects added at the deadline, joining a group that already has forwards William Eklund, Filip Bystedt and Thomas Bordeleau, as well as defenseman Mattias Havelid. They’re missing a top goaltender, especially with Benjamin Gaudreau unsigned, but Magnus Chrona could be something. (Rating: B)

5. Montreal Canadiens (8.5 percent)

After seeing Juraj Slafkovsky, Kaiden Guhle, Arber Xhekaj and Jordan Harris move up last season, it’s good to see the team still holding strong in the prospect side of things. Lane Hutson is the true No. 1 right now after decimating the NCAA. Sean Farrell made his NHL debut after a great two-year run at Harvard, while Riley Kidney, Joshua Roy, Owen Beck and Logan Mailloux all looked great in major junior. Filip Mesar’s season was a bit all over the place, but there’s still some raw potential there. Like many teams on this list, the Canadiens lack a true future goaltender, but Jakub Dobes could compete for starts at some point. (Rating: A-)

6. Arizona Coyotes (7.5 percent)

You could easily make the case that Logan Cooley is the best drafted prospect outside of the NHL right now. He was the runner-up for the Hobey Baker as the NCAA’s best player for good reason, and could very well be a steal at No. 3 in 2022. He leads a group that includes Dylan Guenther, who had a solid taste of NHL action with the Yotes this season, as well as Conor Geekie, Victor Soderstrom and Artem Duda. The Coyotes have done a good job of finding value in recent years, and that’s what you’re getting here – plus the services of one of the best prospects around. (Rating: B+)

7. Philadelphia Flyers (6.5 percent)

We’ll have to see if Cutter Gauthier and Cam York are enough to really lift the Flyers down the future. Tyson Foerster showed huge promise down the stretch, while Emil Andrae has had some real excellent showings over the years. There just isn’t really a game-changing prospect in the wings, although Gauthier isn’t one you’d want to bet against. (Rating: B)

8. Washington Capitals (6.0 percent)

On the one hand, it’s truly excellent that Ivan Miroshnichenko has regained the form that made him such a quality prospect before Hodgkin’s lymphoma diagnosis. Now that he’s under contract with the Caps, he’s ready to show why the team believed in him despite all the missed time. After that, though? The Caps look quite dry. Connor McMichael hasn’t managed to be an everyday fixture, while Hendrix Lapierre is looking more like a middle-six scoring option. I like what I’ve seen from Ryan Chesley, but there might not be another big-time defender in the system right now. (Rating: C)

9. Detroit Red Wings (5.0 percent)

It wasn’t that long ago that Detroit had an abysmal depth chart due to being so competitive for so long. Steve Yzerman and crew have managed to take it up a step thanks to recent draft picks Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper and Sebastian Cossa, giving them big-time talent at three different positions. And then there’s Carter Mazur, Jonatan Berggren and William Wallinder, giving the team some future depth, too. That’s something the Wings have: high-end talent, and strong depth. The future looks good, MoTown. (Rating: A)

10. St. Louis Blues (3.5 percent)

The Blues added a nice piece in Zach Dean at the NHL Trade Deadline, adding to a group that includes Zach Bolduc, Jake Neighbours and Simon Robertson. The real big fish is Jimmy Snuggerud, one of the best college players this past season and a big reason for the University of Minnesota’s success. The Blues lack quality defensive prospects, but Joel Hofer could contend for the starter’s role next season as one of the best goalie prospects in the world. (Rating: B-)

11. Vancouver Canucks (3.0 percent)

Snagging Aatu Raty in the deal that sent Bo Horvat to the Islanders gave the Canucks something to work with. He showed some solid progress this year in the pro game and should remain the team’s top prospect heading into the season. Jonathan Lekkerimaki and (the other) Elias Pettersson both had decent seasons in Sweden, while Danila Klimovich had a… unique season in Abbotsford. Beyond that, they’re lacking, and even top 2024 draft prospect Macklin Celebrini thinks this team needs a full rebuild. (Rating: C)

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