NHL Draft Mailbag: Shane Wright’s dwindling consensus, highest-ceiling players and more

After putting out my final draft rankings, I put out a call to Daily Faceoff readers and my Twitter followers to get some of their burning questions after reading some of my thoughts on this class. As I expected, there were plenty of questions about Shane Wright not being No. 1, but there were a number of other questions I thought would allow me to explain in greater detail some of the other thoughts I have about this class.

So let’s see what you all wanted to know:

Vince Z:

Shane Wright had a [point-per-game rate] way higher in the second half. If he had the same [point per game rate] since day one, would he be the consensus No. 1 right now?

One of the sentiments that has been repeated about Wright’s season is his improved play in the second half. He definitely was better, I thought, but he wasn’t actually all that much more productive. He played 74 total OHL games between the regular season and playoffs and accounted for 108 points, registering 52 points through the first 37 games and 53 over the last 37. It all evens out in the end, which is why the season-long points-per-game average still matters quite a bit.

To be a little fairer to Wright by removing the postseason games, which are notably more challenging, he did produce at a rate of 1.58 points per game in the last 31 games of the regular season after producing at 1.40 points per game in the first 32. So there definitely was improvement, especially after getting more ice time with Martin Chromiak and Lucas Edmonds, which was beneficial to all three players in the end.

Byron Bader, who has a model at hockeyprospecting.com that explores NHL equivalencies based on point production of drafted prospects dating back to 1990, has both Wright and Logan Cooley – who play wildly different schedules – at an identical NHLe of 37. Juraj Slafkovsky is at 27, by the way.

Wright’s production is only a small part of the evaluation, though. Neither Slafkovsky, who is viewed as a serious challenger to Wright, nor Cooley, who was No. 1 on my board, have produced at rates comparable to what we’re used to seeing from top prospects in a given draft year, either. In fact, Slafkovsky’s scoring was nowhere close to historic comparables from the Finnish Liiga, and Cooley ranks 14th all-time in points per game by a U.S. NTDP player in a single season (1.47).

I’ve said all along that the top three guys are super tight for me. If the Montreal Canadiens picked any one of those three players, I wouldn’t criticize them. I think they’re clearly the three best players in the draft. When it comes to Cooley over Wright, points are only a small part of the equation for me.

This is a really long-winded way to say that I don’t think a higher level of point production would have significantly shifted Wright into a tier all his own relative to Cooley or Slafkovsky. Not for me, at least. If Wright produced at a higher level, some more teams might be less concerned, but playing that hypothetical doesn’t do us a lot of good because we have to simply look at what the numbers actually said, and a season-long 1.46 points per game – a very respectable rate – is what it was.

Daniel M:

At 15, Wright was already very mature physically and didn’t grow much thereafter. In comparison, McDavid grew up by three inches and added 30 pounds during the same period. We saw the progression with McDavid… is this a concern for you about Wright’s potential of improvement?

This is a fascinating question from Daniel and it is actually something I considered significantly in the process of evaluating the two players. Size doesn’t matter to me a ton. However, a player’s physical development does. Daniel is correct in that Wright was more physically developed at 15. In fact, if you go off how Kingston had listed him since his rookie year versus how he was measured at the Combine, they’ve had him at 6-foot-1 and more than 185 pounds for three years. Wright was measured at 6-0.5 and 199 pounds at the Combine. There are no real red flags. He stopped growing height wise but continued to tack on weight and muscle over the three years. That’s good.

That Wright is not going to physically develop much more isn’t a concern, but it does put his earlier success as a rookie and as a truly sensational GTHL player for the Don Mills Flyers as a minor hockey star in context. He was physically better than his peers and his early physical maturation was hugely important to his getting exceptional status to enter the OHL a year early. He was more physically developed than a 15-year-old Connor McDavid, and that probably helped Wright produce at a higher rate than McDavid did at the same age. Only John Tavares had a higher points-per-game average as a U16 in the OHL than Wright’s 1.14 in 2019-20.

But here’s why it doesn’t cause me so much fear about Wright’s overall upside. Of players in this draft, he may have the most exceptional hockey sense. He reads plays at an elite level, shows high-level anticipation and execution and just knows what he needs to do to be successful. He’s comfortable with how he feels he needs to play and really hasn’t deviated from that. It’s more deliberate, not as flashy, but it’s effective for him.

I still have him as the No. 2 guy in this draft. I do believe Cooley is the player that ultimately has the higher ceiling and Wright basically being mostly done with his physical development certainly contributes. But Wright’s early physical maturity also allows us to project his floor being the highest in this draft. He can play in the NHL as is. We want to see him get better for sure, but I believe he’s well on track to be no worse than a No. 2 center in the league. That’s why when you hear people call him the “safe pick” they’re probably right.

Leo B:

Chris, are you able to provide some tiers for the 2022 rankings? At least for the top 32…or however deep that last tier of potential first rounders goes.

I’ve been fairly vocal about not really having a super high opinion of this class. It’s average at best and below average at the top. As for the tiers, I have a clear delineation after the top three picks. I do feel the drop-off is fairly significant between the three forwards and the next tier. The players I feel most confident in being major impact players in the NHL are Wright, Cooley and Slafkovsky.

Here’s a brief summary of how I’d tier this draft specific to my board.

Tier 1: 1-3 (Impact players, potential stars)
Tier 2: 4-11 (Impact players with potential to play at the top of the lineup)
Tier 3: 12-25 (High-upside with potential to be good everyday NHLers)
Tier 4: 26-39 (Likely NHL players)
Tier 5: 40-74 (NHL upside with notable flaws)
Tier 6: 75-100 (Have a chance to play in the NHL one day)

I think there’s a lot of value in that top 11 and I do like this draft down to 39, but where I listed the gaps is kind of how I feel you might see drops in talent and upside. After that early-second range, I start seeing a lot of players that I get less and less passionate about. As is the case with any draft, the difference between the guys that will go in the end of the first round and those that go as far as the early third round are not going to have a significant gap between them in terms of quality.

Martin D:

What’s your Top 5 ‘top-ceiling’ players? Are there any high-ceiling players that will make it to the third round?

Top ceiling players for me are…

1. Logan Cooley: It’s a big reason I have him No. 1 overall. I think he has star potential relative to the class and could end up being its most impactful and exciting player.

2. Cutter Gauthier: One of the biggest movers on my list, a lot of his ceiling is dependent on if he can be a true two-way center in the NHL. He has so much athleticism and tools that I think he’s got vast potential.

3. Ivan Miroshnichenko: Given the cancer diagnosis this year, he was knocked down – but certainly not out. Having watched him play live previously, I see a player that could be an impact winger who plays on a top line and is a thorn in the side of the opposition. The question is, how strong does he come back? There’s so much risk, but I had him as my No. 2 prospect coming into this draft season and think the skills are there for him to be a top player again.

4. Kevin Korchinski: He really put it all together this season and I think only scratched the surface of where he’s going. A 6-foot-2 defenseman that can skate and move pucks and played a top-four role on a team contending for a WHL title is super impressive. He had 10 assists in 23 games in the shortened WHL season in 2020-21 and ended up with 65 points in 67 games this season. He’s breaking out.

5. Sam Rinzel: A 6-foot-3 right-shot defenseman who needs a ton of development, I think Rinzel could be one of the real sleepers of the first round, but he’s going to need patience to become what I think his ceiling suggests he can be. He skates exceptionally well for a player his size, but I think the hockey sense still has a ways to go and some of the stuff he needs to fix can only come with experience. He needs tough competition on a regular basis and he should be getting it over the next few years.

Big Tortilla:

I’ve heard that Lane Hutson saw an endocrinologist. According to them Hutson hasn’t stopped growing yet. And could add another 3″. With this information, does that change his draft stock?

This is a big question that has to be answered. I’m sure teams were glad to hear that and probably consulted with their own medical professionals to get their opinions as well. There’s no question size is the biggest concern with Hutson as he would be the smallest defenseman in the NHL if he didn’t grow from the 5-foot-8.25 and 158 pounds he was measured at, at the Combine. His older brother, 20-year-old Quinn, who played for the Muskegon Lumberjacks in the USHL this season, did grow a few inches over the last two years and now checks in at 5-foot-11. It’s not out of the question that Lane gets bigger.

I still believe Hutson is a first-round talent despite the immense risk a defenseman with his size comes with. He is an ultra-competitive, dynamic defenseman who has elite vision and defends at a pretty high level for someone at his size. He has one of the best defensive sticks in this draft.

I know if I were a team with a late first-round pick, I would not hesitate to pick Hutson because I think the reward could be huge.

LD Roc:

I am very intrigued by Jagger Firkus… No. 1 coolest name in the draft. Can he be a home run for a team drafting later in the first?

Jagger Firkus is fun to say and super fun to watch. He has one of the quickest releases in this draft and does a great job of using his skill and slipperiness to get inside. He’s 5-foot-10, per his Combine measurement, and I think the hesitation for players at 5-foot-10, 5-foot-11 is mostly gone. He does need to get a lot stronger though.

The hand skills, his scoring sense and his jittery offensive abilities are super intriguing. I don’t think he’ll last long in the second half of the first round and he should provide good value to whichever team takes him.

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NHL Draft Mailbag: Shane Wright’s dwindling consensus, highest-ceiling players and more

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