Best NHL player prop bets (Dec. 17): Great value on this Point prop

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Tuesday night.

Brayden Point Over 1.5 Points: +170 Sports Interaction

As Nikita Kucherov is off to another fantastic start with 46 points in 26 games, it continues to feel like Point does not get the respect he deserves. It’s been quite clear watching the Lightning this season that Point is far more than just a passenger riding Kucherov’s coattails, but rather a player who is entirely dominant in his own right.

Though Point has played a huge role in the recent dominance of the Lightning’s top-line and top power-play unit, it is also fair to say he is in some of the best roles of any player in the league. Kucherov, Point and Jake Guentzel were expected to form one of the best lines in the league entering the year, and that has proven to be true.

It took some time for the Lightning’s top power-play unit to adjust to life without Steven Stamkos, but they have certainly figured things out now. Since Point’s return to the lineup on November 19th, the Lightning’s power play has succeeded on 41.2% of opportunities.

In the time since Point returned to the lineup, he leads the NHL with 23 points in 12 games played. He’s gone over 1.5 points in six of those 12 games, which suggests +170 is a good number to back Point recording over two points or more in any matchup right now.

A home matchup versus the visiting Columbus Blue Jackets is definitely a better than average matchup though. The Blue Jackets have allowed 3.58 goals against per game, which is the third-highest mark in the league.

Shaky goaltending has been a key reason why the Blue Jackets have allowed so many goals against. Through two games, tonight’s starter Jet Greaves has actually outperformed Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov. Still, Greaves holds a .902 save % in 15 AHL games this season, and it’s unlikely he will post better than league average results over a larger sample.

Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +110 Sports Interaction

A matchup versus the Sharks looks like a good opportunity to back Connor in this market for a number of reasons.

The obvious point is that the Sharks allow a ton of shots against, which surely isn’t surprising to anyone. They have allowed 30.34 SA/60 over the last 15 games, the third-highest mark in the league during that sample of play.

However the Sharks’ have still been a profitable side to bet in that span at 6-7-2, due to the way they are priced in the market. They rank eighth with 3.27 goals for per game, but have allowed 3.53 goals against per game.

So while the Sharks have still been awful at limiting the opposition’s scoring chances, they have been a scrappy side of late thanks to their offensive upside. A surprisingly close, high-event game would be an ideal game script for Connor to record four or more shots.

Relative to expectations, the Jets have struggled of late since their incredible start to the year. Over the last 15 games, Winnipeg is 7-7-1 and holds an expected goal share of just 46.16%. Nikolaj Ehlers’ injury has certainly contributed to the recent struggles and it raises the chances that head coach Scott Arniel will need to offer heavy usage to his top line of Connor, Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi in any matchup.

Connor has recorded over 3.5 shots on goal in five of his last eight games played. His 18.11 shot attempts per 60 lead the Jets as you would expect, and this looks like a good opportunity to continue backing him in this market at +105.

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