Best NHL player prop bets (Dec. 3): Back Thompson to break through vs. Avs

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Tuesday night.

Tage Thompson Anytime Goalscorer: +160 Sports Interaction

Thompson has failed to find the back of the net since returning to the lineup Wednesday versus Minnesota, but it’s not for a lack of trying. He’s put up 16 shots on goal in three games since returning and poured 30 attempts on goal.

Thompson and the Sabres faced three red-hot goaltenders in those matchups, but their offensive process looked strong both at even strength and on the power play. Thompson should have a far better chance of finishing his chances tonight versus Alexandar Georgiev, who holds an .875 save % this season and allowed 3.31 goals against per game.

While the Avs have looked better of late with more NHL regulars back in the lineup, they are still not a side that projects to win games based upon elite defensive play. They have allowed 3.72 goals against per game this season, and seem likely to play high-event hockey all year long.

It’s well known that Thompson’s down season in 2023-24 was due to a significant wrist injury, and even still he scored 0.40 goals per game. In 2022-23, he netted 47 goals in 78 games, and he’s scored 11 goals in 19 games this season.

It seems fair to say that, when healthy, his 2022-23 and 2024-25 results are a more accurate depiction of his offensive upside when healthy. A large sample of Thompson’s play suggests +160 is a good number to back him scoring, and he gets a good matchup to snap his small slump Tuesday.

Noah Dobson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +120 Sports Interaction

Dobson has been trending a little lower of late in terms of shots on goal, but he remains in the same roles on the top pairing and top defensive unit. That makes me value his season-long shot volume over a smaller sample of recent results, and this number looks pretty great given his opponent.

Dobson has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 13 of 25 games this season, which makes +120 a highly profitable price in any matchup.

The Canadiens have allowed the second most shots against in the league this year, and continue to spend plenty of time in the defensive zone. Dobson had seven shots on goal when these teams met on October 19th.

Dobson has averaged 13.59 shot attempts per 60 this season, and has averaged 24:24 of time on ice skating on a depleted Islanders blue line.

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