NHL player prop bets (Jan. 24): Islanders’ top line to continue tormenting Flyers

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Friday night.

Bo Horvat Anytime Goalscorer: +195 Sports Interaction

The New York Islanders have a good opportunity to stretch their winning streak to three games Friday night as they host a Philadelphia Flyers side which played last night at MSG, and is likely to start Ivan Fedotov, who holds an .879 save percentage and 3.26 GAA in 13 appearances this season in goal.

The Islanders have scored just 2.65 goals per game this season, which ranks 28th in the NHL. They have been slightly more productive of late averaging 2.90 goals per game over the last 10, which mainly comes down to the excellent form of the top line.

Mathew Barzal is the team’s best offensive play-driver, and is back in top form after some lesser play when he initially returned from injury. Barzal has recorded eight assists and 11 points over the last nine games, and nobody is benefiting more from his return than Horvat.

Horvat has scored seven goals over the last 10 games, and has averaged 3.6 shots on goal in that span. He has also attempted 54 shots and generated 0.42 individual expected goals per game.

In 96.8 minutes together, Horvat, Barzal, and Anders Lee have generated 4.34 expected goals per 60, and have consistently looked quite dangerous in recent matchups.

The Islanders hosted the Flyers on January 16th, and Horvat, Lee, and Barzal combined for three goals, despite a fairly strong performance from Samuel Ersson in goal for the Flyers.

Friday’s matchup sets up as good spot for the Islanders’ top trio to produce versus the Flyers once again, and I believe there is value targeting them in the prop market. Backing Horvat to score a goal at +195 is my favorite option, but you could also put smaller stakes on a few props involving the trio or even consider correlated same-game parlays.

Brandon Hagel Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -118 Sports Interaction

Backing Hagel in the prop market will surely be a trendy play amongst bettors Friday evening, as his Tampa Bay Lightning visit the United Center to take on his former side. While backing Hagel to be highly involved in this matchup will certainly be a popular play, the numbers still look quite reasonable considering his recent form and expected usage.

At Thursday’s practice Hagel skated on the top line alongside Nikita Kucherov and Anthony Cirelli, and was elevated back onto the top power-play unit. In the month of January, Chicago has 36.68 shots against per game, which is the worst mark in the league by a wide margin.

Hagel has averaged 4.1 shots on goal over the last 10 games, and gone over 2.5 shots eight times.

Hagel, Kucherov, and Cirelli have been extremely effective in minutes together this season, generating 4.3 xG per 60 and outscoring opponents 10-4 in 159 minutes together. They have generated 80.01 shot attempts per 60 in that sample, which is the third-highest mark in the NHL of any line to spend over 150 minutes together.

At -125 or better, I see value backing Hagel to record three shots or more in this matchup.

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