NHL player prop bets (Jan. 28): Martin Necas firing at will in small sample size with Avs

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Tuesday night.

Martin Necas Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -115 Sports Interaction

The Colorado Avalanche made a shocking move Friday night, as they traded superstar winger Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes for Necas and Jack Drury.

While the trade revolved mainly around the fact that the Avalanche did not believe their roster composition would allow them to pay Rantanen the lofty salary he will command this summer, they also likely believe that in Rantanen’s former roles Necas performs better than many observers are crediting.

At the time of the trade, Necas had put up 55 points in 49 games while averaging 18:05 of time on ice, and had been skating on the third line alongside Eric Robinson and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. While Rantanen at the time of the trade had averaged 22:30 of time on ice with the Avs, and had spent most of his minutes playing alongside Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Devon Toews.

In Necas’s first two games with Colorado, he averaged 22:21 of time on ice while inheriting Rantanen’s roles on the top line and top power play on an Avs team which is still extremely top-heavy.

In those matchups, Necas had five shots on goal which doesn’t include the three posts he hit, and he attempted 17 shots on goal. In a small sample of 31 minutes, Colorado’s new-look top line of Necas, MacKinnon, and Jonathan Drouin generated 105.49 shot attempts per 60.

As Necas continues to take on a bigger role playing alongside some of the league’s very best players, his shot volume seems likely to rise considerably. I don’t think we will be seeing Necas available at -115 to record three shots for long, and believe this is the time to back him in this market.

Backing Necas to record an assist (-105) or score a goal, depending on where the markets open, are also good options.

Igor Shesterkin Over 26.5 Saves: -120 Sports Interaction

The New York Rangers are 8-2-3 in the month of January, and are suddenly right back in the thick of a highly competitive Wild Card race as a result.

While the Rangers have allowed far less true defensive collapses in their recent matchups than we saw earlier on in the season, the main reason for their turnaround still comes down to a return to form from their Vezina- winning goaltender in Shesterkin. Shesterkin is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts with a .930 save percentage.

In the month of January, the Rangers have allowed 27.55 shots against per 60, and will host a Carolina Hurricanes side which has perennially been among the league leaders in shot generation during head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s tenure with the team.

In the month of January, the Hurricanes are averaging 32.14 shots per 60, which is right on par with their season average of 32.18. Shesterkin saved 30 of 32 shots when these team’s faced off on December 22nd at MSG. It seems reasonable to expect a similar game script in Tuesday’s matchup, where the Rangers hang around despite not owning much of the overall play.

At -120, I see value backing Shesterkin to record over 26.5 saves, a total which looks two shots too low to me.

You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network app!