Best NHL player prop bets (Jan. 3): Oilers in a good spot to pile on shots vs. Ducks
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Friday night.
Erik Karlsson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +110 Sports Interaction
While Karlsson’s play has never been the greatest problem in Pittsburgh this season, he has elevated his game considerably since a modest start to the campaign, which is a key reason the Penguins are hanging around in the playoff race.
Since December 1st, Karlsson holds a +8 goal differential in five-on-five play, which leads the team by a wide margin. He’s gone over 2.5 shots on goal in six of the last 10 games, and recorded eight points in that span.
With Kris Letang currently on the IR with a lower-body injury, Karlsson will likely play huge minutes versus the Florida Panthers on Friday evening. In the first two matchups since Letang was injured, Karlsson has generated seven shots on goal from 11 attempts.
The Panthers are one of the best defensive teams in the league, and are obviously not an ideal matchup to back opposing shooters. However, over the last 10 games, the Panthers have allowed 28.62 shots against per 60, which is the 11th-highest rate in the NHL. Florida will be playing the second half of a back-to-back in this matchup after losing a hotly-contested matchup versus the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday.
Viktor Arvidsson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -125 Sports Interaction
Edmonton Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch has opted to shuffle his offensive units ahead of the team’s matchup versus the Anaheim Ducks, in which the Oilers are gigantic favourites at -500 odds.
Projected lines via Daily Faceoff
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Connor Brown
Vasily Podkolzin – Leon Draisaitl – Viktor Arvidsson
Zach Hyman – Mattias Janmark – Kasperi Kapanen
Jeff Skinner – Adam Henrique – Corey Perry
Unsurprisingly, the one offensive unit which remains together is the second line of Podkolzin, Draisaitl, and Arvidsson. In 120.8 minutes together this season, they hold a 62.5% goal share and have generated 77.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes of play.
Draisaitl has taken his game to another level at even strength this season, and has been far more than a player who is simply riding shotgun withMcDavid on an elite power play. While Drasaitl’s dominance is the main reason the Oilers’ second line has been so effective, Oilers newcomers Podkolzin and Arvidsson have both been in strong form.
Since Arvidsson returned from injury on December 19th, the trio has shown strong chemistry when together at even strength. When healthy, Arvidsson has been a strong even strength play-driver throughout his career that has poured shots on goal at a high rate. He’s recorded 12 shots on goal over the last four games, and this looks to be a good time to buy in a favourable matchup now that he is getting up to speed once again.
The Ducks have allowed 32.04 shots against per 60 this season, which is the second-highest mark in the NHL.
The concern with a matchup versus Anaheim is that Edmonton may end up rolling its offensive lines fairly evenly, but hopefully Ducks goaltender Lukas Dostal can keep this game from becoming a blowout. Dostal has played to a +18.9 GSAx rating this season (second-best in NHL), and owns a save percentage of .914.
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