Best NHL player prop bets (March 5): Capitals’ McMichael heating up again

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available at online sportsbooks on Wednesday night.

Connor McMichael Over 0.5 points: +110 Sports Interaction

Washington Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery was critical of McMichael’s play coming out of the break, calling out McMichael’s considerable drop-off in form relative to his play earlier on in the season. McMichael’s breakout campaign has been a key reason for Washington’s surprisingly dominant record, but his level of play had tailed off considerably throughout December and January.

But McMichael has started to find his game once again, as he has recorded 11 points over the last 11 games, and six points in six games since the 4 Nations Face-Off, while looking far more threatening.

Whether Washington’s second line has been compiled of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson, and Aliaksei Protas, or Dubois, Wilson and McMichael, the team’s “second” line has generally been its best unit this season.

Right now Carbery is rolling with McMichael alongside Wilson and Dubois, which has me interested in backing McMichael to record a point at plus money in Wednesday’s matchup versus the New York Rangers.

In 289.2 minutes of even-strength play, McMichael, Dubois, and Wilson have generated 3.62 xGF/60, which is the third-best mark in the league among units to spend over 200 minutes together. They have scored 4.55 actual goals per 60, and outscored opponents 22-17.

The Rangers have improved defensively as they push for a playoff berth, but are still far from a bad matchup for McMichael to continue his strong recent production.

Over the last 10 games, the Rangers have allowed 3.33 xGA/60, and hold an expected goal share of just 45.57%. Seven of those games have been against non-playoff teams, including a number of the league’s worst offenses.

Pavel Buchnevich Over 0.5 points: -110 Sports Interaction

The St. Louis Blues will continue their pursuit of the final Western Conference playoff spot when they take on the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday evening.

Thanks to a recent 6-2-2 run, the Blues are only three points back of the Calgary Flames, and a playoff berth is still somewhat realistic. Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich have combined for 25 points over the last 10 matchups, which has been the driving force behind the team’s improved results.

In 237.9 minutes together, the Blues’ current top line of Thomas, Buchnevich, and Jake Neighbours has scored 4.03 goals per 60.

Thomas is one of the league’s best playmakers, and has fared well playing with two similarly intelligent players in Buchnevich and Neighbours. All three are strong along the walls, and have a good understanding of how to find pockets of space in the offensive zone.

In recent years, the Kings have generally been one of the league’s best defensive teams, but they have been much more average defensively for what has become a fairly large sample of play. Over the last 15 games, they have allowed 3.25 xGA/60, which ranks 16th in the NHL.

Even if we put some weight on the idea that the Kings are a better defensive side than we have seen lately, this still looks to be a good price to back a highly-skilled offensive star who is in good form playing on a highly cohesive top line.

Buchnevich has recorded 248 points in 276 games with the Blues, and is currently in the midst of one of his better stretches of play of what has been an excellent tenure with the team.

Laying more juice to back Thomas recording a point (-154) or stacking Thomas and Buchnevich each to get a point are also solid options, but at -110 there is value backing Buchnevich to find the scoresheet.

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