Best NHL player prop bets (May 1): Higher usage should lead to more shot attempts from MacKinnon

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available at Sports Interaction on Thursday night.

Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots on Goal: +110 Sports Interaction

An Avalanche roster that appears to have everything needed to win the Stanley Cup now needs to win two straight to avoid a second straight elimination at the hands of the Dallas Stars.

With the season on the line, we will surely see head coach Jared Bednar employ hefty minutes to his top stars in most game scripts, and this looks like a good spot to back MacKinnon recording over 4.5 shots on goal after his seven-shot performance in Game 5.

MacKinnon’s shot volume has typically risen in the playoffs historically, and that has been the case in this series as he has averaged 6.2 shots on goal per game in this series. He’s attempted 24.53 shots per 60 in that span of five games, which is also considerably higher than his regular season average of 19.67.

While MacKinnon has typically been dominant regardless of his linemates in the postseason, he’s been specifically dominant in this series playing alongside Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas. The trio has generated 4.27 xGF/60 in the series, and has generated 93.71 shot attempts per 60.

Given what we know about MacKinnon as a competitor, he’s going to be pressing Bednar for as much ice time as possible in this matchup. Considering the way he’s generated shots in the series entering this do-or-die matchup, a price of +110 for MacKinnon to record five or more shots in this spot looks to hold plenty of value.

Adin Hill Over 22.5 Saves: -118 Sports Interaction

In a series that was not expected to be overly competitive, the Minnesota Wild have given the Vegas Golden Knights all they can handle and could easily be returning home with the opportunity to close out the series if not for a late go-ahead goal in Game 5 being overturned for offsides.

The Knights have done a great job of suppressing the opposition’s shot totals all season long and have allowed only 23.2 shots against per 60 in this series. The Wild have been able to generate their fair share of offensive zone time, though, and should come out with a spirited performance on home ice in this matchup.

Minnesota features a mobile defensive core capable of helping to create plenty of offensive chances both in transition and during sustained spells of play in the offensive zone.

Those who follow me in the Action Network app may have seen a similar bet on Sergei Bobrovsky to record over 22.5 saves in Wednesday’s elimination Game 5, targeting the idea that at a minimum, the Tampa Bay Lightning would get their share of shots in and the idea that Tampa Bay would be more aggressive in a do-or-die spot.

This is a similar kind of bet, as I believe the Wild may carry more of the overall play in this game, but could struggle to generate true premium scoring chances versus a Knights side that is comfortable sagging defensively when needed.

You can follow all of Nick’s hockey bets on the Action Network app!