Best NHL player prop bets (Nov. 11): Fade these two forwards Monday

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Monday night.

Bryan Rust Under 2.5 Shots on Goal: +115 Sports Interaction

Rust made an excellent return to the lineup Friday versus the Capitals, as he managed five shots on goal and registered an assist in a fairly wide-open affair. His chances of having a similarly productive night versus a very stingy Stars side look to be overvalued though.

Rust has gone under 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five matchups. He has come in under 2.5 shots on goal 45% of the time dating back to the start of last season, which already suggests +115 is a break-even price in any matchup.

The Stars have allowed just 26.37 shots against per 60 in their last 10 games, which is the fifth-best mark in the league in that span.

Rust ranks eighth on the team with 14.55 shot attempts per 60 this season. Even for someone who generates a lot of shots right at the goal mouth, it’s unlikely an average of 10.6 on target per 60 will hold over a larger sample based on the amount of attempts he is averaging.

Jonathan Marchessault Under 0.5 Points: -105 Sports Interaction

One of the futures I was high on entering this season was the Predators to record under 99.5 points, and two of the main reasons help explain why this looks to be a good bet. Marchessault, Steven Stamkos, and Brady Skjei were not all that effective in even-strength play last year, and are all on the wrong side of the age curve.

Signing all three to big tickets this offseason still left the Predators with a highly unconvincing depth chart at the critical center position.

Marchessault has spent a lot of time playing alongside Colton Sissons in even-strength play, and the duo has been highly ineffective. Marchessault skated with Sissons and Gustav Nyquist on Saturday as Stamkos was elevated to the top line.

In a tiny sample 12.2 minutes together that trio holds a 7.1% expected goal share this season. Looking at a large sample, the Sissons/Marchessault duo has not been effective. Marchessault still has zero points in 5-on-5 play this season.

The Avs have allowed 3.93 goals against per game this season, which is the second-highest mark in the NHL. That’s certainly a concern with this bet, but their defensive play has been trending upwards as key bodies such as Devon Toews and Artturi Lehkonen have returned to the lineup.

Over the last 10 games, the Avs have allowed an xGA/60 of 3.09, which is better than league average.

Marchessault has gone under 0.5 points in nine of 15 games this season, and there aren’t many arguments as to why he will be more productive moving forward. It will be a sweat every time the Preds power play takes the ice in this matchup, but we can live with that at this price.