Best NHL player prop bets (Nov. 20): McMann shooting more on Leafs’ top line
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Wednesday night.
Bobby McMann Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -129 Sports Interaction
With several top-six regulars missing from the Leafs’ lineup McMann has found himself in a significantly improved role for the time being, and he has poured 17 shots on target over the last three games.
McMann played 19:06 on Saturday versus Edmonton skating alongside Mitch Marner and John Tavares on the top line, and appears to be remaining in that role based on today’s morning skate. He is also skating on the second powerplay unit for the time being.
McMann had an excellent finish to last season, and ultimately tallied 15 goals in 56 games. After a slow start to the year, he is starting to showing the offensive promise we saw in 2023-24.
McMann shot at a fairly high volume a year ago with 10.94 shots per 60, and ranks third on the Leafs this season with 11.22 shots per 60. It’s not surprising to see his shot totals uptick now that he’s getting more minutes, and I still think there’s enough value at -129 to look for a fourth straight three shot performance.
And while I do believe the Knights are worthy of a bet in this game (at least at the numbers which were available earlier) it’s not necessarily based on the idea the Knights will completely shut the Leafs down offensively.
A potential trailing game script for Toronto would likely help McMann’s usage, and the Knights have allowed 28.25 SA/60 this season. By no means is this a bad matchup to back McMann going over 2.5 for a fourth straight game.
Jaden Schwartz Under 0.5 Points: -125 Sports Interaction
Schwartz has produced a single point in just seven of 19 games (36.8%) played this season, which is an easy starting point as to why this is a good number. There isn’t much of a case as to why the 32 year-old winger will start to produce at a higher rate moving forward, either.
Whether they have played with Andre Burakovsky or Oliver Bjorkstrand, the duo of Schwartz and Chandler Stephenson has generated next to nothing at even strength. With Burakovsky that duo has generated 1.77 xGF/60, and with Bjorkstrand they have generated 1.95 xGF/60.
Schwartz and Stephenson are set to play alongside Daniel Sprong in this matchup. Sprong has a great shot and can finish chances at a higher than average rate, but even still the Kraken’s second line a clear weakness.
Despite their ugly record, the Predators have allowed 3.21 goals against per game, which is below league average. They have suffered through a difficult schedule recently, but have done a good job of suppressing offense versus more manageable opponents.
Juuse Saros has been excellent in posting a .914 save percentage this season, and as the Predators get into a softer patch in the schedule we should see their defensive level improve.
The Kraken have a low projected team total in this matchup. This sets up as a good time to keep fading Schwartz on a second line which has generated very little.