Best NHL player prop bets (Nov. 6): Forsberg to stay hot vs. Capitals
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Wednesday night.
Filip Forsberg Anytime Goalscorer: +130 Sports Interaction
At the 2012-13 trade deadline the Capitals dealt Forsberg to Nashville for Martin Erat and Michael Latta, a trade that will go down as one of the worst in NHL history. As if that point wasn’t already clear enough to Caps fans, Forsberg has put up eight goals and 19 points in 17 career matchups versus Washington.
Forsberg’s solid history versus the Caps might not mean much from a predictive standpoint, but his recent form certainly does. He’s scored four goals over the last six games, and has poured 27 shots on goal in that span.
While the Preds have badly underachieved this season, Forsberg has looked true to form. His total of 10 points in 12 games seems to be underselling his play, and I don’t believe he’s playing at a lower level than we saw last year when he put up 48 goals and 94 points.
Nashville’s top line had an off night Monday versus the Kings, and they knew it. They have still been the Preds’ most effective unit by a wide margin this season, and hold a 64% expected goal share.
Forsberg leads the team with 5.8 expected goals, and is someone who has the scoring talent to finish at an above average rate (career 13.0% shooter).
While +130 is a very short number from an anytime goalscorer perspective, I believe it’s still not short enough for Forsberg in this spot.
Pierre-Luc Dubois Over 0.5 Points: +110 Sports Interaction
Pierre-Luc Dubois has been getting a ton of credit for his strong play among those that have consistently watched the Capitals this season. Washington’s most consistent observers would also agree that six points in 11 games isn’t an accurate depiction of his offensive play.
Tom Wilson, Connor McMichael and Dubois hold a 61% expected goal share and have generated 3.90 xGF/60 this season. McMichael and Wilson have combined for 21 points in 11 games, and in time Dubois’ production should be more on par with his linemates, especially considering Dubois is also getting a lot of touches on the half-wall on the Capitals power play, which has looked better in recent outings.
He’s averaging the third-most minutes of any Caps forward, and has generated 4.2 expected goals.
Bonus Bet – Rod Brind’Amour Jack Adams Winner: +2200
I’ve touched a lot on Spencer Carbery to win the Jack Adams, and continued to argue that it was surprising how long that number stayed as high as it did. Carbery is now down to +650 and is the second favorite behind Scott Arniel.
From the same vein, I can’t see how Brind’Amour is still priced a +2200 and think this number could also plummet in the near future.
The Hurricanes are off to a 9-2-0 start, in a season where many observers thought Carolina might finally fall off due to a number of key losses. While I liked this bet in the summer based on my belief the roster wasn’t actually getting much worse, he should get plenty of credit if Carolina finishes near the top of the standings once again.
They hold a +18 goal differential, and lead the league with a 59.95% expected goal share. Goaltending is a concern for the time being, but other than that their dominant start looks entirely sustainable.
Given the Hurricanes’ recent regular season success, it will likely take them achieving a far greater point total for Brind’Amour to win this award than many of the favorites in this market such as Carbery or Travis Green. They are currently the second favorite to win the Presidents’ Trophy at +550, though, and that price seems fair given their dominant play.
If the Hurricanes ultimately finish near the top of the standings, Brind’Amour will surely be in the mix for this award. He is widely credited as one of the best coaches in hockey, and I don’t see any reason voters wouldn’t look his way if Carolina pushes into the 115-point range, which looks realistic.
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