Best NHL player prop bets (Oct. 24): Target this Kraken defender to put the puck on net
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Thursday night.
Timo Meier Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +120 Sports Interaction
The Red Wings projected to be a below average side defensively entering the year, and they certainly haven’t proven any doubters wrong in the early going. Aging blue-liners such as Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry aren’t exactly candidates to help drive play in the right direction, and a number of the Wings’ top forwards are weak on the defensive side of the puck.
Through six games, the Red Wings have allowed 33.74 shots against per 60, and 3.81 xGA/60. The Devils should own more of the play in this matchup, and I’m happy to target one of their stars in the prop market.
Nico Hischier, Timo Meier and Dawson Mercer have generated 3.53 xG/60 this season and should fare well in this matchup. All three are well better than above average forecheckers, and should be able to expose the Wings’ flawed back-end. Jack Hughes’ line could draw more of the minutes versus Detroit’s top pairing of Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson, which would be favorable to this bet.
Meier ranks first on the Devils with 12.75 shots on goal per 60, and also ranks first with 22.41 shot attempts per 60.
At +120, we are getting a good number to back the Devils’ leading shooter in this matchup.
Brandon Montour Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -167 Sports Interaction
Seattle GM Ron Francis obviously thought very highly of Montour’s play with the Panthers, as he signed the 30 year-old to a seven-year deal with a $7.1 million cap hit. To this point, Montour is living up to his end of the bargain and has been highly noticeable in every Kraken game this season.
Montour has played an average of 24:14 this season, and with top defender Vince Dunn sidelined, he should continue to take on a huge role. He leads the Kraken with 21.22 shot attempts per 60, and has averaged four shots per game this season.
Montour remained with Jamie Oleksiak at practice Wednesday, which is a good thing for this prop. They hold a 60% expected goal share this season, and should be used in a less defensive role compared to the times that Montour is paired with the team’s top shutdown defender, Adam Larsson.
The Jets do a good job of limiting opponents to the kind of chances that Vezina-winner Connor Hellebuyck can handle, but do allow a slightly higher than average amount of shots against. Winnipeg has allowed 29.04 shots against per 60 this season while playing a relatively soft schedule.
Adrian Kempe Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +125 Sports Interaction
The Sharks look well on their way to being a historically bad side once again, and this matchup presents Kempe with a great opportunity to bounce back after a quiet night in Vegas on Tuesday. San Jose has allowed 4.17 xGA/60 this season, and simply isn’t rostering the talents to shut down opposing stars.
The Kings opted to reunite Kempe with Anze Kopitar and Quinton Byfield in that matchup. While it didn’t pay dividends in that game, I do believe that is the team’s optimal top unit. In 638.7 minutes together last season, that unit held a 54.9% expected goal share.
Kempe has put up just three shots over his last two games, but has proven himself as a volume shooter over the last three seasons.
The only concern with matchups versus the Sharks is a lot of game scripts will lead to less than average TOI for superstars like Kempe, but we can live with that risk given the +125 number.
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