Best NHL player prop bets (Oct. 25): A good night to back the Connors
Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Friday night.
Connor Bedard Anytime Goalscorer: +240 Sports Interaction
Dating back to last March, Bedard has put up just two goals in his last 20 games. Given how popular bets on him to score always are, that has surely been a good outcome for the sportsbooks. Now looks like a good time to start considering buying low on the young phenom in the goal-scoring markets.
The greatest reason why is what should always reign supreme in your handicapping; the price. Bedard is priced at +240 to score a goal tonight, which is a far longer number than the numbers we have typically seen in his young career.
Over the last 20 games, Bedard is still averaging over 3.2 shots per game, but has shot just 3.2%. Based on his sublime shooting talent, that likely won’t happen over a 20-game sample too often in his career. He’s attempted 18.98 shots per 60 this season.
Bedard is still the only true game-breaker on the Blackhawks, and he’s in a tough spot to be sure. The fact that opposing teams can still really just lock in on taking away his shooting lanes and cheat aggressively towards him on the power play doesn’t make anything easy.
Still, you could argue playing alongside Teuvo Teravainen does offer Bedard a more competent offensive unit than he had much of last season. Chicago’s top line of Bedard, Teravainen and Nick Foligno has put up a 60.6% expected goal share this season.
The Predators have allowed 4.43 goals against this season, and allowed 3.02 goals against a year ago. They aren’t a dream matchup, but not one that scares me off Bedard at this kind of a number when the underlying numbers tell us he is due to start filling the net again soon.
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points: -139 Sports Interaction
The numbers support the narrative that McDavid has a little extra juice in the tank when he faces off against his idol Sidney Crosby and the Penguins. In the last six matchups (three seasons) versus Pittsburgh, McDavid has put up a total of 17 points.
It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Penguins have been a below average side defensively in that span, and that point looks especially true this season. In their opening eight games, the Penguins have allowed 3.85 xGA/60, which is the fifth-worst mark in hockey. The eye test agrees with the idea that they simply aren’t a good defensive side right now, and it’s easy to see how bad they are defending in transition.
The Penguins have allowed a lot of goals where it counts too, as their 4.25 GAA is the second-worst mark in the league.
McDavid enters off an excellent performance on Tuesday versus the Hurricanes, and has six points over the last four games. It seems like he’s starting to get up to speed after a slow start to the season, and I think this is a good spot to back another highly productive night.
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