Best NHL player prop bets (Oct. 16): MacKinnon to shoot Avs out of slump

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best player props available for Wednesday’s NHL slate.

Dylan Cozens Anytime Goalscorer: +310 (Sports Interaction)

If the Buffalo Sabres are able to turn it around this season, a bounce-back from Dylan Cozens after a down year in 2023-24 figures be a big part of the story.

Through four games, Cozens has zero points, which is pretty surprising given the way his offensive play has stood out at times. The analytics agree with that thought, as Cozens’ 1.5 expected goals ranks second on the team. His 17.51 shot attempts per 60 also ranks second.

At Tuesday’s practice, Cozens skated alongside Zach Benson and Jack Quinn. In 66.6 minutes together last season, that trio owned a 53.5% expected goal share. Benson and Quinn are both players that could take significant steps forward this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this trio be more productive than the average second line.

Cozens also remained on the Sabres’ top power play unit at Tuesday’s practice.

Per TopDownHockey, the Penguins have allowed 3.20 xGA/60 this season, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. As noted above, their goaltending options aren’t looking very convincing right now, either.

On Wednesday, the Pittsburgh Penguins provide a better than average matchup for Cozens to get off the schneid, and at any price better than +300 there is value backing Cozens to score.

Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots on Goal: +105 (SIA)

The Colorado Avalanche will be desperate to earn their first win of the season Wednesday, as they enter this matchup 0-3 with a -10 goal differential. Their current lack of depth up front has been highly concerning, and their goaltenders hold a combined save percentage of just .807.

None of those things will sit well with last year’s Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon, and due to the Avs’ lack of offensive depth, it seems fair to expect he will play a ton of minutes in this matchup in most game scripts. MacKinnon has looked true to form with five points through three games, and has averaged 22.96 shot attempts per 60.

Relative to the betting markets, the Boston Bruins looked overvalued to me entering the season. Their defensive play has not been nearly as sharp as in seasons past, as they have allowed 30.62 shots against per 60, and hold an xGF% of just 41.51.

Given the Bruins’ shaky defensive play and the likelihood MacKinnon is forced to play big minutes in this matchup, this sets up as a great spot to back MacKinnon recording over 4.5 shots on goal at anything better than +100.

Bonus Bet: Sabres Moneyline: +105 (SIA)

The Sabres entered this year looking to snap the NHL’s longest postseason drought at 13 seasons. They are off to an ugly 1-3-0 start, and suddenly we are seeing clips of their captain Rasmus Dahlin getting into it with Peyton Krebs at practice. That may not make an overly appealing case to bettors, but a deeper dive into this matchup suggests there is value on Buffalo. 

The Sabres have had a tough schedule to this point. They dropped back-to-back matchups in Prague versus the Devils, who could easily be in the mix for the Presidents’ Trophy. They looked great despite a losing result to the Kings in their home opener, and brought a similar performance Saturday versus the Florida Panthers and were rewarded with a 5-2 victory.

Through four games, the Sabres hold a 52.79% expected goal share at even strength. That number aligns with the eye-test, as in three of their four matchups they looked relatively sharp at even strength, but have struggled to finish in scoring with a mark of -2.52 goals above expected.

The Penguins, meanwhile, are offering a comparable amount of flaws to the Sabres. Tristan Jarry looks to be getting the start in this matchup, and holds an .868 save percentage in two games this season, after an ugly finish to the 2023-24 campaign which saw Alex Nedeljkovic steal the starting role.

The Sabres could also receive a boost if JJ Peterka, who has missed two games due to a concussion, returns to the lineup. The team is hopeful he can return on Wednesday.

A fight between teammates isn’t a bad thing, and can be indicative of the kind of intensity needed to win in this league. During the Blues’ infamously slow start to the 2018-19 campaign we saw the same thing, and obviously that group was able get things moving in the right direction.