Best NHL player prop bets (Oct. 22): Lightning in tough spot against Devils’ sharpshooters

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player props available on Tuesday night.

Jack Hughes Over 1.5 Points: +160 (Sports Interaction, Play to +150

The Devils are catching the Lightning in a favorable back-to-back spot Tuesday, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see one of the league’s speediest and most skilled offenses hang a crooked number up in this matchup.

Andrei Vasilevskiy started last night’s game in Toronto, and has started every game this season for Tampa. He was pulled midway into the second period, which might make Jon Cooper somewhat tempted to play him today, but it still seems more likely we see Jonas Johansson start in this matchup.

Johansson played to a -8.9 GSAx last season, and his played to a .889 save % at the NHL level throughout his career.

I’m not a believer that the Lightning will be a full-blown defensive juggernaut this season, and still believe their lack of depth still keeps them from being a true Cup favorite. This looks like a good spot to pick on that by targeting the Devils’ “second” line of Hughes, Jesper Bratt and Paul Cotter as they should benefit from some winnable matchups.

The Devils power play has clicked at 20.2% so far, but has looked like one of the more dangerous units in the league, and Hughes is the one leading the team in touches in 5-on-4 play.

Lots of people are projecting a 100-point season from Hughes this season, and his early play shouldn’t change anyone’s thinking on that. He hasn’t been overly productive to this point, but that helps us get better numbers to back a productive night in a spot where New Jersey has a high projected total.

Cole Sillinger Anytime Goalscorer: +410 (Sports Interaction, Play to +390)

Blue Jackets coach Dean Evason looks to be shaking up his offensive units entering this matchup, and has moved Cole Sillinger up to the top line alongside Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko.

Whether or not the move makes sense is debatable, as by taking Yegor Chinakhov off of the top line Evason breaks up a unit that has been entirely dominant this season. Monahan, Marchenko, and Chinakhov have combined for 18 points in five games, and held a 79.6% expected goal share in 59.9 minutes of even strength play.

Considering how Monahan and Marchenko have played thus far though, it does put a competent offensive player in Sillinger into an excellent role.

Sillinger will also skate on the Blue Jackets’ top power-play unit, which holds a 21.4% success rate this season.

The Leafs have allowed only 13 goals through their opening six games, their lowest total allowed in the Auston Matthews era. The Leafs have allowed 3.70 xGA/60, though, which is the sixth-highest mark in the NHL.

The eye test tells us they have defended better than that number suggests, but it’s still hard to dispute that Anthony Stolarz and his .938 save % has helped make the Leafs’ defensive play look more dominant than it truly has been, and Stolarz will be backing up tonight after playing yesterday versus Tampa.

The Blue Jackets have a decent chance to surprise and manage a reasonable team total in this matchup. Given his new role, I see value backing one of those tallies to come from Sillinger at a long number of +410.

Roman Josi Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +105 (Sports Interaction, Play to -105)

The Predators remain the lone NHL team with zero points this season, and while it’s only their sixth game of the season, this matchup feels like a must-have. In the majority of game scripts we should see Josi play huge minutes, and I’m counting on the Preds’ captain having a good performance in this spot.

The Bruins have allowed 29.14 shots against per 60 this season, and 3.42 xGA/60. While they feature a high quality defensive core, their overall roster composition is no longer likely to hold a higher than average share of the overall play.

The betting markets haven’t entirely adjusted though, as opposing shooters still have longer than average numbers when playing Boston.

Josi had 11 attempts on goal last time out versus Detroit, including nine unblocked attempts. He’s put up 21.19 shot attempts per 60 this season.

At +105 I see value backing Josi to record over 3.5 shots on goal in this matchup. I’ll also note that I am backing the Preds to win this game, and would play anything better than -130.