NHL power rankings: Wolf and Flames still in playoff hunt
April is just around the corner. With most teams in the final stretch of the regular season, the playoff picture is beginning to take shape.
While there’s still a lot of moving parts, some are beginning to pull away, and we already have one team securing a spot and another two officially being eliminated. There’s still plenty of teams left in the hunt for the final few spots though, so it’s far from over.
Hunter Crowther and I continue to navigate through the results so far this season with another week of our co-op power rankings. I have my same old system in which I aggregate six stats (points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) to come up with a list that eliminates my own biases, along with a rule that no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead of them in the standings or has clinched a playoff spot when they haven’t, regardless of where the aggregate places them.
On the other hand, Hunter goes off his own intellect and pure vibes, and together, we find a way to combine it and meet in the middle.
1. Washington Capitals
Record: 47-15-8, +76
Last Week: 2nd (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 1st
Scott’s Rank: 1st
Scott: The Capitals are officially the first team in the season to clinch a playoff spot, and I don’t think there’s too many people at the start of the season that would have guessed that they would be the first team to do so. With a 12-point lead on the next closest threat in both the Metropolitan Division and Eastern Conference, they can basically hop on cruise control for the final 12 games and focus on getting Alex Ovechkin to Wayne Gretzky’s goal record (he got another goal last week) and resting for the playoffs. It’ll be interesting to see in the final few games which one of those takes priority for the Caps in the final stretch.
2. Winnipeg Jets
Record: 48-19-4, +76
Last Week: 1st (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 2nd
Scott’s Rank: 2nd
Scott: I’m certainly getting more bullish with the Jets as the playoffs approach, and while I certainly wouldn’t call them my favourite in the Western Conference still (especially with how much better some of the other powerhouses in the West got at the trade deadline), I have a lot more faith in them than I did a couple of months ago. They’ll probably lock up the top spot in the West, barring a late collapse, so at this point, the only thing that matters is what they do in the playoffs.
Hunter: Any path to success for the Jets goes through clinching the No. 1 spot and playing any one of the Blues, Canucks, or Flames in Round 1, all of which are good but flawed teams and would arguably be a better matchup than another Central Division powerhouse. Of course, now that I’ve written it and it’s out in the universe, expect the Blues to shell Connor Hellebuyck and win in six.
3. Florida Panthers
Record: 43-25-3, +36
Last Week: 4th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 5th
Scott’s Rank: 3rd
Hunter: The Panthers defeated the Penguins in overtime Sunday and won’t play again until Friday, and it will be a much-needed week off to rest. But folks, I repeat: Seth Jones can’t be playing 25, 26 minutes a game. I know they’re dealing with injuries and issues out of their control with Aaron Ekblad, but I repeat: Spread those minutes out, Mr. Maurice.
Scott: I saw a tweet that described Jones’ situation as “suddenly becoming important at work, and it’s ruining his life,” and I think that’s about as accurate of a comparison as I can come up with.
4. Dallas Stars
Record: 44-21-4, +52
Last Week: 3rd (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 3th
Scott’s Rank: 6th
Hunter: I feel like the Stars are close to being in that universe of, “I know they’re going to make it, I know they’re talented, let’s get to the playoffs.” The last few weeks have seen Dallas win one, lose one, win two, lose two, etc. They’re just going through the motions before April. Right now, they need to make sure the likes of Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz get hot at the right time.
5. Los Angeles Kings
Record: 39-21-9, +26
Last Week: 6th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 8th
Scott’s Rank: 4th
Hunter: I mean, damn, the Kings have really gone off. They went into March with a five-game losing streak, but since then, they’ve won eight of their last nine games and have now passed the Oilers in the Pacific Division, and maybe even secure home ice in a first-round series between the two if they keep this up.
Scott: Not only that, but back-to-back 7-2 wins over the weekend might strike a bit of fear into teams that were hoping the Kings would roll over offensively. It’s probably just a flash in the pan, but for the first time in this four-year playoff stretch for Los Angeles, they’re getting hot at the right time.
6. Vegas Golden Knights
Record: 42-20-8, +47
Last Week: 8th (+2)
Hunter’s Rank: 6th
Scott’s Rank: 7th
Scott: I think the Golden Knights saw the freight train that is the Kings right now in their rearview mirror and woke up, as they knocked off three straight wins against the Bruins, Red Wings and Lightning last week to keep their distance for the Pacific Division lead. Before then, they had lost four of their last five games, but they still maintain a five-point lead on first place for the time being.
7. Carolina Hurricanes
Record: 43-23-4, +39
Last Week: 5th (-2)
Hunter’s Rank: 4th
Scott’s Rank: 9th
Scott: The good news: the Hurricanes have pulled away and more or less secured home ice advantage in the first round thanks to wins in nine of their last ten games, including an eight-game winning streak going into this weekend. The bad news: the one loss was a 7-2 shellacking to the Kings. That’s far from a concern, but it’s certainly an ugly blip on an otherwise fantastic stretch of play.
Sidenote: the Metropolitan Division is easily the most boring division race. The Canes are 12 points behind the Caps for first, but 10 points ahead of the Devils in third. Even the struggling Devils have a six-point lead on the next closest team in the Rangers. Yawn.
Hunter: Since it’s already a foregone conclusion the Hurricanes and Devils play in Round 1, let’s make way-too-early predictions. Carolina in 5? I don’t want to shrug off New Jersey soon, but unless they snap out of their own funk and start getting hot, it might be a cakewalk for the ‘Canes.
8. Edmonton Oilers
Record: 441-24-5, +26
Last Week: 7th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 9th
Scott’s Rank: 5th
Hunter: This past week, the Oilers laid the smackdown on Utah HC with a 7-1 win, followed by a loss to the Jets and a tight win Saturday night in a game they were outplayed in. They’re going to go into every series with at least the best player in the league – maybe two of the best – but I don’t feel confident about their depth.
Scott: While the Oilers did manage to fill in one of their most significant holes on defense with the Jake Walman addition, they still lack the front-end footspeed beyond the obvious in Connor McDavid, and while Stuart Skinner has shown to be capable of being just good enough for Edmonton to go on a deep run, he’s at his shakiest right now. I still really like this team, but they have quite a few exploits that another top team can easily exploit.
9. Colorado Avalanche
Record: 443-25-3, +35
Last Week: 9th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 7th
Scott’s Rank: 10th
Scott: Yes, the Avalanche are one of the hottest teams in the league with 10 wins in their last 12 games. I should probably have them higher in the rankings considering that, but I can’t help but notice how underwhelming they are under the hood despite the two-headed monster that they have (although I’m not going to lie, losing a natural talent like Mikko Rantanen does make me look on his group slightly lesser despite how well Martin Necas has filled that role). That said, their biggest weaknesses going into the season were in net and down the middle, and they managed to revamp both positions on the fly in a way few teams can do during the season. I know no one cares about the GM of the Year award, but Chris MacFarland should get some consideration.
10. Tampa Bay Lightning
Record: 40-25-5, +54
Last Week: 10th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 10th
Scott’s Rank: 8th
Scott: I know everyone has recognized that the Lightning have bounced back into a much stronger form than previous seasons, but it still feels like the Lightning are being slept on. I wouldn’t call them Stanley Cup contenders, but they’re certainly in that tier below, and certainly have the best depth they’ve had since the Cup wins. Even after dropping back-to-back games over the weekend, they’re still very much in the hunt for the Pacific Division title.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs
Record: 42-25-3, +16
Last Week: 12th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 11th
Scott’s Rank: 11th
Hunter: There’s something unique about the Maple Leafs in that they can win three straight games, each with moments that make them look like a Stanley Cup contender, but a lackluster effort on Hockey Night in Canada, this time against the Predators, leaves everyone feeling like the season is over and everyone melts down on social media. There’s 12 games left, and all they can do is try to win the division. If you don’t, well, try to beat whomever you face. Keep it simple.
Scott: I know I haven’t been shy about calling this team a fraudulent one, but even now, I still mostly just want to see what happens in the playoffs with this group. At the very least, Auston Matthews seems to be heating up at the right time. He had 4 goals in a 3-game stretch, and has 7 points in his last 5 games.
12. New Jersey Devils
Record: 37-28-6, +25
Last Week: 11th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 13th
Scott’s Rank: 12th
Hunter: I know the Devils are dealing with injuries. I know Sheldon Keefe tore into Johnathan Kovacevic in the post-game on Saturday night. I know, I know. But there’s a stench in New Jersey, and they need to figure it out. No one is expecting you to win the Stanley Cup, but the playoffs? Bare minimum. Get it down.
13. Minnesota Wild
Record: 40-25-5, -1
Last Week: 13th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 12th
Scott’s Rank: 14th
Hunter: I know the Wild racked up lots of points in the first half of the season, but a small part of me wondered if the absence of Kirill Kaprizov would lead to them falling short. But the likes of Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello have continued producing, and we saw this this past week with wins over the Kings, Kraken and Sabres. The thought of Kaprizov getting healthy just in time for the playoffs is too juicy of an idea.
Scott: Whether they face the winner of the Pacific Division, or the Blues overtake them in the wild card race and they get stuck with the Jets, a Wild team with a healthy Kaprizov will certainly cause any team trouble.
14. St. Louis Blues
Record: 37-28-7, +10
Last Week: 14th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 15th
Scott’s Rank: 13th
Hunter: They’re gonna do it, aren’t they? When they beat the Ducks a week ago, I thought they put themselves in a good position, but I didn’t think they would go on this kind of run. Six straight wins and 12 of their last 15, they’re four points ahead of the Flames and five on the Canucks. Those two teams have a respective three and two games in hand, but folks, you have to still win those games if you’re the other team.
Scott: At the very least, they’re in the driver’s seat, and they could even be in a position to catch up to the Wild for the first wild card spot. I know there’s a lot of great candidates for the Jack Adams, and it’s basically Spencer Carbery’s to lose at this point, but Jim Montgomery should certainly get some consideration for how he’s legitimately turned this Blues team into one of the best defensive teams in the league. At the very least, the Blues have proven that they made the right move with their extremely short leash on Drew Bannister to bring in Jim Montgomery.
15. Ottawa Senators
Record: 37-27-5, +2
Last Week: 15th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 14th
Scott’s Rank: 18th
Scott: As the rest of the Eastern Conference wild card teams are sitting back and letting other teams have the final spot, the Senators have managed an 8-2-1 record in their last 11 games and have built up a four-point cushion on the next closest team in the Habs – and a five-point cushion on the next closest team out of a playoff spot in the Rangers, with two games in hand to boot. The Sens also have one of the easiest schedules down the stretch, with just three games against the Lightning, Panthers and Hurricanes left among the clear-cut playoff teams, and five games against teams in this playoff race. It’s not locked up yet, but they are very much in the driver’s seat in this race.
Hunter: Beyond the obvious of the Senators beating the Leafs in the first round and it being the funniest possible outcome, I don’t think they would be instantly run over by any one of the Panthers or Lightning. There are enough playoff rats among the likes of Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux, and Ridly Greig to make it interesting and give Ottawa more home playoff gate revenue.
16. New York Rangers
Record: 34-31-6, 0
Last Week: 16th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 16th
Scott’s Rank: 17th
Hunter: There’s a gut feeling you have when you cover hockey, one where you know certain situations have a bit of inevitability. When I look at the Eastern Conference Wild Card race, that’s what I see with the Rangers, a team that was so far out of it at one point, and are now just one point back of the No. 2 spot. I don’t necessarily want New York to get in, mostly because it won’t be as fun as seeing the Canadiens or Senators, but you don’t pay a goalie $11.5 million and not get a few stolen wins out of it.
Scott: This recent stretch may come back to bite them though. They have only 3 wins in their last 10 games, and while they’re one point out of the final wild card spot, they have two more games played than every other team in this race. That inevitability certainly exists, but the Rangers still need to put in the work.
17. Vancouver Canucks
Record: 32-26-12, -17
Last Week: 17th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 19th
Scott’s Rank: 15th
Scott: The Canucks’ season is far from over, but I can’t help but think that their 4-3 overtime loss to the Blues may be the game that you look back on at the end of the season as the one that made the difference for them. Now, potentially losing Elias Pettersson just as he was returning to normal will also be one of many key reasons during this season of nightmares, but that was the Canucks’ last game against any of their three wild card opponents. They’ve certainly got their work cut out for them.
18. Calgary Flames
Record: 33-25-11, -21
Last Week: 23rd (+5)
Hunter’s Rank: 17th
Scott’s Rank: 20th
Scott: I don’t think I had ever fully grasped how much Dustin Wolf has allowed this Flames team to overperform before I wrote my story on him last week, but it might almost be considered Hart worthy if they make the playoffs. Calgary had a tough go in Toronto on Monday with their 6-2 loss, but three straight wins against the Rangers, Devils and Islanders still has them in the thick of it against the Blues.
Hunter: I’ll say it: Wolf should be a lock for the Calder Trophy. When a rookie forward finishes with 50 or more points, putting up above-average production for a full-time NHLer, they’re basically a lock for rookie of the year. So why can’t a goalie who puts up a top-10 save percentage (currently .911) and a goals-against-average under three not a sure lock? No offense to Macklin Celebrini, but scoring while getting first-line minutes and power play for a last-place team isn’t as impressive as backstopping a team in a playoff race.
19. Utah Hockey Club
Record: 32-27-11, -9
Last Week: 18th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 21st
Scott’s Rank: 16th
Hunter: Beyond a beatdown from the Oilers, Utah HC has looked confident in the last few weeks, win or lose. Dylan Guenther has hit the 25-goal mark, and is one of several Arizona Coyotes/Utah HC draft picks to find their groove as an NHLer; Barrett Hayton, Logan Cooley, and of course, Clayton Keller. I’d like to see Utah go all-in in free agency and add another piece.
Scott: Considering all of the draft picks and prospects this team has accumulated from their previous life as a salary cap laundering scheme in Arizona, I think they’ve positioned themselves to make a big splash on the trade market as well. We’ll wait and see what the market looks like, but I’d say they should shoot for the stars like what the Golden Knights did with Jack Eichel or the Panthers did with Matthew Tkachuk if the opportunity presents itself.
20. New York Islanders
Record: 32-28-9, -15
Last Week: 22nd (+2)
Hunter’s Rank: 18th
Scott’s Rank: 19th
Scott: Okay, so my “it’s the Islanders, who cares” remark may have been a bit harsh last week. With points in five straight games (although in typical Islanders fashion, that only adds up to a 3-0-2 record), they’re only a couple points out of a playoff spot, and they have the goaltending to push them to the finish line. With a 5-3-2 record in their last 10 games, they’re also the hottest team in the Eastern Conference wild card race behind the Habs (yes, the bar is that low). Anything is possible.
21. Montreal Canadiens
Record: 33-27-9, -18
Last Week: 25th (+4)
Hunter’s Rank: 20th
Scott’s Rank: 23rd
Hunter: The Canadiens won only once this week, but both their losses came in overtime or a shootout, and they now have at least one point in six straight. The Rangers are just one point behind, and if you had to guess which of the two would make it, I would say New York. But selfishly, as a Canadian hockey fan? Let’s get as many teams in as possible.
Scott: I’m still quite adamant that this is the worst team of the bunch in this East wild card race, but they’re also one of the more fun options. Plus, playoff hockey in Montreal is always a sight.
22. Columbus Blue Jackets
Record: 31-29-9, -9
Last Week: 20th (-2)
Hunter’s Rank: 22nd
Scott’s Rank: 21st
Scott: Okay, so it’s not looking great for the Blue Jackets at the moment. They’ve lost six games in a row and eight of their last nine, and are on the outside looking in in the playoff race. But, they’re only four points back, they’re getting Sean Monahan and Erik Gudbranson back today, and they have five games against other teams in the race, including three still against the Senators. It’s not over yet.
23. Detroit Red Wings
Record: 32-31-6, -23
Last Week: 24th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 25th
Scott’s Rank: 22nd
Scott: Look, the final wild-card spot in the East is still up for grabs, especially if a team gets hot down the stretch. But with just two wins in their last 10 games, it feels like this might be it for a Red Wings team that will fall just short for the second season in a row. I have to wonder how hot the seat will get under Steve Yzerman’s general manager position if they don’t make it for a ninth straight season.
Hunter: My buddy Josh is one of the most optimistic Red Wings fans I know. This week, he texted me: “I don’t know if I’m fooling myself, but we seemed primed for a good year. I hate this team, and they need the offseason.” If you’ve lost Josh, it’s over.
24. Boston Bruins
Record: 30-33-9, -46
Last Week: 21st (-3)
Hunter’s Rank: 23rd
Scott’s Rank: 25th
Hunter: Six straight losses?! I knew the Bruins would show some signs of struggling after trading everyone, but, oh boy. I didn’t think it could hurt more than losing against a last-place team in the Sharks, but they really let it run away against the Kings. I don’t know what you even say at this point, other than … maybe let it get worse? Let’s see just how low in the standings they can get for a better draft pick.
25. Pittsburgh Penguins
Record: 29-32-11, -48
Last Week: 19th (-6)
Hunter’s Rank: 24th
Scott’s Rank: 24th
Hunter: Folks, the Penguins are just seven points back – they can do it! Sidney Crosby is still producing like a top-line player, and this week, he hit the 50-assist mark for the 12th time in his career. At this point, I’m just trying to watch every Pittsburgh game like I watch every Los Angeles Lakers game to watch an elder statesman in LeBron James. I just want to enjoy what time is left.
26. Anaheim Ducks
Record: 30-32-8, -33
Last Week: 26th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 26th
Scott’s Rank: 27th
Scott: The Ducks are stuck in no-man’s land, too far from a playoff spot but also too far from a lottery spot, so it’s safe to say this won’t be an ideal result from them. But at the very least, their young guns are starting to improve after disappointing starts. In the 16 games they’ve played since the 4 Nations Face-Off, Mason McTavish has 16 points, Leo Carlsson has 7 goals and 14 points, Jackson LaCombe has 13 points and Cutter Gauthier has 12 points. Even Trevor Zegras with one foot seemingly out the door has 9 points in 13 games.
27. Philadelphia Flyers
Record: 28-35-9, -47
Last Week: 27th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 28th
Scott’s Rank: 26th
Hunter: Matvei Michkov has one goal in his last 12 games, but he was finally able to hit the 50-point mark this week. He’s had stretches where he looks like he’ll be a top forward in this league, and stretches where he can’t produce any points. I’m really excited to see how his second season goes.
28. Buffalo Sabres
Record: 28-35-6, -27
Last Week: 29th (+1)
Hunter’s Rank: 27th
Scott’s Rank: 29th
Scott: This season has been a lost cause for the Sabres for a long time at this point, so at this point they just don’t need to screw things up the other way and win their way out of a top pick. That said, it would be very fitting if they won the lottery this season in a year where the top prospect is a left-shot defenseman – probably the one thing they don’t need right now.
29. Nashville Predators
Record: 26-36-8, -49
Last Week: 28th (-1)
Hunter’s Rank: 29th
Scott’s Rank: 28th
Scott: I’m not going to lie, I had a feeling that the Predators would come out with a win during Saturday night’s matchup. Under the hood, Nashville might be the best team not in the playoff race, while the Leafs are probably the worst team of the surefire playoff teams, so it felt like a recipe for an upset. Of course, there’s not much to celebrate when it’s the Preds’ only win in the last six games, but they’ll take what they can get at this point.
30. Seattle Kraken
Record: 30-36-5, -19
Last Week: 30th (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 30th
Scott’s Rank: 30th
Hunter: I’ll take the mantle from Scott for last week: “It’s the Kraken, who cares?” No no, they deserve better than that, but they continue to lose, even though they’re not losing enough to make it worth their while. Seattle has 11 games left, and a lot of them are against playoff teams. Hey, maybe they can still have an impact on the playoffs! Well, not like that.
31. Chicago Blackhawks
Record: 21-41-9, -61
Last Week: 31st (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 31st
Scott’s Rank: 31st
Hunter: Look, Sunday’s win was entertaining and it was good to see Ryan Donato continue his career year, now with 25 goals and 53 points. Connor Bedard is on pace for a worse offensive season than his rookie campaign, and while some of the blame can be assigned on a lack of surrounding talent, it’s still a disappointment, no doubt. This team has a lot of warts, but at least they have at least a few prospects they can look forward to seeing next season.
32. San Jose Sharks
Record: 19-42-9, -77
Last Week: 32nd (0)
Hunter’s Rank: 32nd
Scott’s Rank: 32nd
Scott: I can’t believe we completely glossed over the fact that the Sharks were the first team to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. If anything, I’m surprised it took this long for that to happen, especially since they haven’t even hit 50 points yet. It’s hard to believe that six years ago this team was in the Western Conference Finals, but that’s still been six years with not much for Sharks fans to celebrate. At least they beat the Bruins on Saturday, that’s fun.
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