NHL power rankings: Erik Karlsson has finally arrived in Pittsburgh

Credit: © Charles LeClaire

While we aren’t quite at the infamous American Thanksgiving mark of the season to officially start solidifying the good and bad teams, we’ve finally had our first coaching change of the season (or at least the first one due to on-ice issues), so we can at least start to react to what we’ve seen. And for a particular superstar-led Canadian team well-known for embarrassing themselves (no, not that one, the one out West), those reactions aren’t good.

Mike Gould and I continue to navigate the league through the first month of the season with another week of our co-op power rankings. I have my same old system which I aggregate six stats (points %, 5-on-5 goal differential, 5-on-5 xGF/60, 5-on-5 xGA/60, power play xGF/60, and shorthanded xGA/60, all coming courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) to come up with a list that eliminates my own biases, along with a rule that no team can be above a team that’s more than five points ahead of them in the standings, regardless of where the aggregate places them. On the other hand, Mike goes off his own intellect and pure vibes, and together we find a way to combine it and meet in the middle.

1. Boston Bruins

Record: 11-1-2, +18
Last Week: 2nd (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 1st
Scott’s Rank: 1st

Mike: Finally, Scott and I agree on the top team in the rankings. Boston is a terrifying team led by two of the game’s top wingers in David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. James van Riemsdyk is looking good, Matt Poitras is a rock-solid Calder Trophy dark horse, and the duo of Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm is as good as any. Oh, and their two goalies are both elite. Who needs Patrice Bergeron, anyway? (What if he comes out of retirement to rejoin these guys at the deadline?)

Scott: Why would you speak that into existence?

2. Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 12-2-1, +26
Last Week: 1st (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 2nd
Scott’s Rank: 4th

Scott: I swear I’m not trying to burst anyone’s bubble in Vegas with my slightly lower ranking, but they’ve still been a very mid team in terms of their on-ice play and are getting some very good goaltending to cover it up. Ironically, they’ve now had three straight games where they’ve out-chanced their opponent, and yet two of those games have been their only two regulation losses this season.

Mike: It’s like raaaaaaain. On your wedding day. It’s a free riiiiiide. When you’ve already paid.

3. New York Rangers

Record: 11-2-1, +16
Last Week: 9th (+6)
Mike’s Rank: 3rd
Scott’s Rank: 4th

Mike: OK, has Alexis Lafrenière finally arrived? Playing on a line with Artemi Panarin, the 2020 No. 1 overall pick now has seven goals and 11 points in 14 games to start the season. Chris Kreider continues to score at will and Erik Gustafsson (!) has stepped up in a big way with Adam Fox on the shelf. All this has enabled the Rangers to overcome a tepid start from Igor Shesterkin and collect 23 out of a possible 28 points thus far.

4. Dallas Stars

Record: 10-3-1, +12
Last Week: 4th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 5th
Scott’s Rank: 2nd

Scott: The only part of the Stars game that has struggled early on in the year has been their special teams, and they managed to fix half that on Sunday’s 8-3 win over the Wild by going 5-for-8 on the power play (and really, it’s 5-for-7, but for some reason the NHL always adds a “missed attempt” when a team has a five-minute power play even if they score). They went 1-for-5 on the penalty kill too, which is a solid improvement.

5. Vancouver Canucks

Record: 11-3-1, +33
Last Week: 8th (+3)
Mike’s Rank: 3rd
Scott’s Rank: 8th

Mike: Screw it, I’m all-in on these Canucks. It might be heresy coming from a Calgarian but they’re for real. Elias Pettersson is Alien Jesus, Quinn Hughes is going to win the Norris, and Filip Hronek suddenly looks like an actual steal. Add in Thatcher Demko playing like a Vezina winner and you’ve got a team that can go the distance.

6. Los Angeles Kings

Record: 8-3-3, +14
Last Week: 5th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 6th
Scott’s Rank: 5th

Scott: The Kings actually ended up first in my rankings before I had to adjust them with the five-point rule, as the Kings were the only team to rank in the top 10 in every category this week. They had their eight-game point streak ended with a 4-2 loss to the Flyers on Saturday, but this team has still shown few signs of slowing down so far.

Mike: I’ve been waiting for the Kings to have a bad week and it just hasn’t happened yet. I have to give them credit: they’ve been great. Far beyond my wildest expectations.

7. Florida Panthers

Record: 9-4-1, +4
Last Week: 11th (+4)
Mike’s Rank: 7th
Scott’s Rank: 6th

Mike: Look out, everyone: Florida has rattled off four consecutive wins. Even though Matthew Tkachuk hasn’t gotten off to the greatest start, fellow nepo baby Sam Reinhart has picked up the slack in a big way. Get a load of this contract year bump: Reinhart already has 21 points in 14 games this season. He’s already nearly a third of the way to the 67 points he racked up in 82 games all of last year.

8. Carolina Hurricanes

Record: 9-6-0, +2
Last Week: 7th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 8th
Scott’s Rank: 7th

Scott: The Canes haven’t quite hit that level of consistency that we’re used to with this team, but they still look much improved from their sluggish start to the year. It’ll be interesting to see how they move forward with goaltender Frederik Andersen out indefinitely, but Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kotchetkov are about as solid of a No. 2 and No. 3 in net as you can ask for, so they should be fine.

9. Colorado Avalanche

Record: 8-5-0, 0
Last Week: 3rd (-6)
Mike’s Rank: 9th
Scott’s Rank: 10th

Mike: Losing to Seattle in any fashion was bad enough, but then the Avs followed it up with a flat-out embarrassing 8–2 loss to the Blues just two days later. Jared Bednar was rightfully pissed with his team’s performance in that one, although it’s hard to win any games when your goaltenders can’t even stop 80 percent of the shots they face. Could Dan Vladar be on his way to Colorado when Jacob Markstrom returns to full health in Calgary?

10. Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 7-6-0, +12
Last Week: 20th (+10)
Mike’s Rank: 14th
Scott’s Rank: 9th

Scott: The last thing a Pens team mired in bad luck needed was a long-term injury to starting goalie Tristan Jarry, so thankfully for them he only missed one game, and then continued his shutout streak that was so rudely interrupted on Tuesday into Saturday’s game against the Sabres with a 4-0 Pens win. It’s safe to say the reigning Norris Trophy winning version of Erik Karlsson has touched down in Pittsburgh. He’s on a heater, with nine points in his past five games, four of which are Penguins victories.

11. New Jersey Devils

Record: 7-5-1, -1
Last Week: 6th (-5)
Mike’s Rank: 10th
Scott’s Rank: 14th

Mike: Without Jack Hughes, these Devils are Just Another Team, but then again, what did you expect? Much like the Avs, the Devils haven’t been able to get enough saves in the early goings of the season, with Vitek Vanecek all the way down at an .887 SV% through 10 games. Timo Meier has really struggled, too. But even with a lot of their guys mired in a funk, these Devils remain two games above .500. When you’re good, you’re good.

Scott: What’s funny is that lost in all of this concern with Jack Hughes out is that people forget that Nico Hischier has been out even longer! The Devils are hurting down the middle right now.

12. Arizona Coyotes

Record: 7-6-1, +7
Last Week: 13th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 11th
Scott’s Rank: 15th

Scott: The Coyotes just won’t go away. The fact that they haven’t lost more than two games in a row this season has allowed their standing to not slip away from them, but they also haven’t won more than two games in a row, so they haven’t been able to put together a solid stretch to pull away from the murky middle. Mike is a bit higher on them than me (*shocked Pikachu face*), but this is a solid team that could make some noise.

Mike: As Scott mentioned, the Coyotes have only strung consecutive wins together once. If these guys want to be taken seriously, they’ll have to start going on a run. A win against Dallas on Tuesday would be a pretty good change of pace.

13. Winnipeg Jets

Record: 7-5-2, +2
Last Week: 10th (-3)
Mike’s Rank: 16th
Scott’s Rank: 12th

Mike: Kyle Connor is on one of his yearly white-hot streaks, having scored five goals and eight points in his last three games. On the contrary, Connor Hellebuyck’s numbers remain underwhelming. These Jets have had their moments to start the year, but their grasp on a Central Division playoff spot is unbearably tenuous. The Coyotes are right there. Pardon the pun, but that should be a dog fight all season long.

14. Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 7-7-1, +2
Last Week: 16th (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 17th
Scott’s Rank: 11th

Scott: One of the most Flyers things possible would be to open your week by giving the Sharks their first win of the season, only to then follow it up with two straight wins over a hot Ducks team and an even hotter Kings team. Their defense has still been stellar this season, but their offense is starting to show in spots that it might not be able to keep up to keep this team too high in the standings.

15. Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 8-5-2, +1
Last Week: 15th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 12th
Scott’s Rank: 18th

Mike: Brad Treliving is starting to look like Joey Gallo swinging at Aroldis Chapman fastballs: just miss after miss. That offseason might go down as one of the worst in recent memory. When Max Domi, who has zero goals in 15 games, is considered “the good one” … eeeyikes. Tyler Bertuzzi has been underwhelming, Ryan Reaves is already a healthy scratch, and John Klingberg legitimately might not make it to Christmas. At least they’re not the Oilers, but these Leafs need to turn it around.

Scott: In defense of Domi, he’s also on pace for 49 points despite not having a goal yet this season. I say he does it. However, it is quite the coincidence that the Leafs played arguably their best game of the season against the Canucks AND got two goals from their fourth line in the first game that they made Reaves a healthy scratch.

16. Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 6-5-4, -1
Last Week: 12th (-4)
Mike’s Rank: 13th
Scott’s Rank: 17th

Scott: Apparently the Lightning’s championship poise has a Kryptonite, and that’s the Maple Leafs, as they blew a multi-goal lead for the third time in their last five games against Toronto going back to their 2023 first-round matchup. That was the start of a rough week where they dropped three of four games, despite the fact that Nikita Kucherov had seven points in the first three games of the week.

17. Detroit Red Wings

Record: 8-5-2, +6
Last Week: 14th (-3)
Mike’s Rank: 15th
Scott’s Rank: 16th

Mike: Red Wings fans are finally witnessing what the fine folks up in Ottawa saw all too often last year. The mercurial Alex DeBrincat snapped a seven-game goalless drought in Detroit’s 5-4 win over Columbus on Saturday; in those seven games, DeBrincat managed but a single assist. It’s safe to say the Red Wings will go as he goes this year, and they sure didn’t go very far during his cold streak. We’ll see if he heats up again now.

18. Washington Capitals

Record: 7-4-2, -5
Last Week: 17th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 18th
Scott’s Rank: 13th

Scott: The Caps are riding a four-game point streak that’s suddenly allowed them to sneak back into a top three spot in the Metropolitan Division as the Devils, Pens, and Islanders continue to be inconsistent. They’ve done this despite the fact that starting goalie Darcy Kuemper has been out with an undisclosed injury for the weekend, not to mention Alex Ovechkin having just two goals on the year before he doubled that total on Saturday against the Islanders.

19. New York Islanders

Record: 5-5-3, -8
Last Week: 19th (0)
Mike’s Rank: 19th
Scott’s Rank: 21st

Mike: I wonder how long it took the Islanders’ PR department to schedule an emergency meeting with Casey Cizikas after he told fans to stay home if they intended to boo head coach Lane Lambert. I can clearly picture it: “Casey, please do not tell paying customers to not be paying customers.” Anywho, the Islanders are a really boring team that can’t score and, more worryingly, can’t get a save from Ilya Sorokin.

20. Ottawa Senators

Record: 6-7-0, +6
Last Week: 22nd (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 21st
Scott’s Rank: 19th

Scott: The Sens know how to take advantage of the more inconsistent teams like the Maple Leafs and Flames, but once a hot team like the Canucks comes into town, we’re reminded of why this team sits last in the Atlantic Division, despite the fact that they have the second-highest 5v5 shooting percentage this season behind those same Canucks.

21. Anaheim Ducks

Record: 8-6-0, +3
Last Week: 21st (0)
Mike’s Rank: 20th
Scott’s Rank: 24th

Mike: Pluck, verve, heart — the Ducks have all these things in spades. Frankie Vatrano is on one of the craziest hot streaks ever, while Leo Carlsson and Pavel Mintyukov both look like potential Calder Trophy contenders. Meanwhile, Trevor Zegras still has just two points and is now injured, as is Jamie Drysdale (again). Who knows what to make of all this?

22. St. Louis Blues

Record: 7-5-1, +1
Last Week: 26th (+4)
Mike’s Rank: 24th
Scott’s Rank: 20th

Scott: It looks like the Blues have finally remembered how to score. After averaging just 2.42 goals per game all season, they managed to more than triple that total against the Avalanche of all teams with an 8-2 win and now have four wins in their last five games.

Mike: If Doug Armstrong manages to sell the Oilers on Jordan Binnington as their potential savior, he should be named GM of the Year.

23. Buffalo Sabres

Record: 7-7-1, -3
Last Week: 24th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 22nd
Scott’s Rank: 22nd

Mike: The Sabres are still fun but not nearly as exciting as they have been in previous years. The good: Owen Power looks to be taking the next step toward becoming a legitimate top-pairing defenseman. The less good: Peyton Krebs has fallen off the face of the Earth, the goaltending is pretty bad, and the scoring has run hot and cold. Kevyn Adams has some work to do.

24. Montreal Canadiens

Record: 7-6-2, -9
Last Week: 23rd (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 23rd
Scott’s Rank: 23rd

Scott: Both Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault are doing very good Carey Price impressions so far this season, giving the Habs the fourth highest save percentage in the league and saving a combined 10.76 goals above expected. It’s what’s kept an otherwise mediocre team afloat this season, as they sit just outside the playoffs for the time being.

25. Minnesota Wild

Record: 5-8-2, -14
Last Week: 27th (+2)
Mike’s Rank: 25th
Scott’s Rank: 26th

Mike: Sure, Kirill Kaprizov has 15 points in 15 games to start the year, but he’s also a minus-11 on a Wild team that has otherwise floated around a 50% goal share. Something is up with him. Plus, Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson have both had awful starts to the year. But there’s some good news: Jared Spurgeon is back, and he somehow finished with a plus-2 rating in Minnesota’s 8–3 loss to Dallas on Sunday.

26. Nashville Predators

Record: 5-9-0, -7
Last Week: 18th (-8)
Mike’s Rank: 26th
Scott’s Rank: 25th

Scott: That once-dominant possession game the Preds team had to start the season has dropped off to a 53.84% 5v5 expected goal share that’s a bit more expected from this team. They’ve now lost five of their last six games this season, with their lone win in that stretch coming against one of the few teams doing worse than them in the Oilers.

27. Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 4-7-4, -12
Last Week: 25th (-2)
Mike’s Rank: 27th
Scott’s Rank: 28th

Mike: It’s fitting that the Blue Jackets are right next to the Flames in these rankings, given how poorly Johnny Gaudreau’s second season in Columbus has unfolded thus far. Gaudreau is stuck at just one goal and six points in 15 games with the Blue Jackets to start the year. With five years after this one at a $9.75 million cap hit, one wonders if Jarmo Kekalainen and Co. might start exploring the trade market for the high-priced winger, albeit Gaudreau would have the final say given he carries a full no-movement clause.

28. Calgary Flames

Record: 4-8-2, -15
Last Week: 29th (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 28th
Scott’s Rank: 27th

Scott: Just as the Flames strung together a couple of wins together, that fell apart again over the weekend with back-to-back losses to the Leafs and Sens. To make matters worse, Jonathan Huberedeau’s struggles in Calgary continue, with just three points in his last 10 games and a benching on Tuesday against the Predators.

Mike: Connor Zary has been a bright spot, but the Flames are careening toward a much-needed high draft pick. It’s about time.

29. Seattle Kraken

Record: 5-7-3, -14
Last Week: 28th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 29th
Scott’s Rank: 29th

Mike: When you’re losing to these Oilers and these Flames within the span of a week, you’re in trouble. The Kraken have come crashing back down to Earth after last year’s surprise playoff berth, with Matty Beniers noticeably struggling to replicate his Calder Trophy-winning performance. At least Joey Daccord has looked good in net.

30. Chicago Blackhawks

Record: 5-8-0, -11
Last Week: 31st (+1)
Mike’s Rank: 30th
Scott’s Rank: 31st

Scott: That three-game losing in the second week of the season is really all that’s kept this team from being closer in the playoff hunt, as they’ve otherwise played .500 hockey, although they haven’t had the underlying numbers to back up even that. That is, when Connor Bedard isn’t on the ice, as he’s rocking a +2.88% 5v5 relative expected goals, along with four goals in his last two games and seven in his last six.

Mike: I expected Bedard to score somewhere between 25-30 goals as a rookie. I may have been a tad conservative with that estimate. We’ll see.

31. Edmonton Oilers

Record: 3-9-1, -16
Last Week: 30th (-1)
Mike’s Rank: 32nd
Scott’s Rank: 30th

Mike: What an embarrassment. I don’t think Jay Woodcroft is a perfect coach (or even a great one), but do you really mean to tell me that this Oilers team’s version of accountability is to fire its winningest coach ever in terms of points percentage… over 13 bad games? Bonkers. Connor McDavid doesn’t look remotely like himself. Is that somehow Jay’s fault? And now McDavid’s old OHL coach (Kris Knoblauch) joins the ranks of McDavid’s old junior teammate (Connor Brown) and McDavid’s old agent (Jeff Jackson) in the Oilers organization. Who’s really in charge? The answer might not even be Ken Holland, who contradicted Jackson at times and brought up flaws in the team’s roster construction — supposedly his responsibility — during Sunday’s presser. Losing to San Jose was bad enough. What’s happened since has been even worse.

Scott: I also find it interesting that ever since McDavid got hurt and has since been mortal, Leon Draisaitl has looked very… average. Funny how that works for a guy who supposedly doesn’t need McDavid to be a top-five or top-10 player in the league.

32. San Jose Sharks

Record: 2-12-1, -49
Last Week: 32nd (0)
Mike’s Rank: 31st
Scott’s Rank: 32nd

Scott: While Mike is operating on emotional reaction with his last place pick, I’ve decided to keep it logical. No matter how low the Oilers get this season, they will never be as bad as this Sharks team. Even losing to this Sharks team this week does not compare to the historically bad numbers that the Sharks have put up. The Sharks are an AHL team, while the Oilers are at worst an AHL team with a couple of superstars. Sure, if this were a Clown Rankings, the Oilers would probably be in last place this week because it’s pretty funny to watch from afar, but they at least have hope. The Sharks don’t.

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